China’s social security and taxation changes would add to economic and social woes; Abe’s re-election could be bad news for China

SinoInsight 1
On Sept. 17, Japan’s defense ministry said that three Maritime Self-Defense Force naval vessels and a submarine carried out anti-submarine drills in the South China Sea last week.

On Sept. 20, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was re-elected to a new three-year term as leader of Japan’s ruling party, setting him up to stay in office until 2021 and become Japan’s longest-serving leader.

OUR TAKE

Abe has pledged to amend Japan’s constitution to formalize the legal status of the Self-Defense Forces. The revision of Article 9 comes as the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is announcing its intention to become more assertive on the world stage. Also, the United States has changed its policy on China and has rolled out a new Indo-Pacific strategy to provide an alternative to the PRC in the region.

If Japan successfully amends its constitution, the PRC would find itself facing a fresh and unwelcome threat in an increasingly unfriendly international climate. Ironically, Chinese Communist Party propaganda about the Sino-Japanese war might end up torpedoing any prospects of the PRC expanding economic and trade cooperation with Japan. Lately, the PRC has been courting Japan as it seeks out allies amid a trade war with America.


SinoInsight 2
On Sept. 18, a WeChat account (“jun zheng ping gong zuo shi”) belonging to the People’s Liberation Army posted an article criticizing “certain media outlets” on the mainland of overdoing propaganda. The article accused media outlets of having “exaggerated the strength of the army” to “incite the people.” The article also noted that the media outlets in question had ran headlines like “America is shocked,” “South Korea is afraid,” and “India is fearful,” and had boasted that the PLA is the “sole dominant military power,” among other bombastic depictions.

The article called on internet management departments in mainland media outlets to crackdown on grandiose articles (“spiritual opium”) like those it had described.

OUR TAKE
1. We have observed that the U.S. has changed its policy on China and is gradually countering the PRC on the ideological front in the “new Cold War.” In response to the shifting U.S. attitude, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been rolling out propaganda countermeasures, including efforts to fix the definition of what the “new Cold War” entails to its advantage.

The CCP, however, has seen its propaganda efforts backfire as the Sino-U.S. trade war escalates. In July, state mouthpiece People’s Daily ran three editorials to criticize the phenomenon of “pompous, arrogant writing” by mainland media outlets.

2. The CCP’s recent problems with so-called “spiritual opium” is self-inflicted. For many years, CCP propaganda has set up “democracy” and “Western imperialism” as a strawman to fan nationalism and drum up support for the regime. Old habits die hard, and the CCP propaganda apparatus is now having troubles getting the lower rungs to adapt to a new international climate where the U.S. and its allies are becoming increasingly wary of signs of PRC militarism.

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