SINOWEEKLYPLUS

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on telegram
Share on whatsapp
Share on linkedin
Share on print
Share on email

Decoding the opening up of Hainan; beware China’s export deficit and local bond risk

SinoInsight 1
According to official customs data released on April 13, China posted a trade deficit in March, the first time since February 2017.

OUR TAKE
1. China’s trade deficit comes as the CCP is propping up the yuan to prevent depreciation and on the back of a string of United States economic policies (tax cuts; tariffs; Fed shrinking balance sheet and raising rates). Trade surplus was $48.4 billion in Q1 2018, or a year-on-year decrease of over 26 percent. While China typically sees an export deficit during the seasonal drop in February, this year is the first since China joined the WTO where the Q1 deficit of goods and services totals more than $20 billion.

2. China’s net exports to the U.S. in Q1 2018 were nearly 30 percent higher than China’s overall net exports, a situation which last occurred in 2011. It is possible that importers of U.S. products were concerned about the tariffs and increased shipments in advance. But even after subtracting the $12.3 billion difference in Q1 2017, China’s net exports to the U.S. are still 4.5 percent higher than its overall net exports. This means that China continues to be dependent on exports to America, and is at a disadvantage in a trade war. The Chinese Communist Party’s best worst option is to further open up China’s markets.

SinoInsight 2
A total of 239 short-term (three-year) local government bonds will reach their maturity date in 2018.

Total repayment is 838.937 billion yuan (about $133.695 billion). Between June to November, monthly repayments of over 100 billion yuan have to be made, or an increase of more than 100 times as compared with earlier months. Local governments would face substantial debt pressure.

WORTH NOTING
The government debt ratio of Guizhou, Tianjin, Chongqing, Yunnan, Qinghai is 78 percent, 76 percent, 70 percent, 69 percent, and 65 percent respectively—numbers far higher than the “red line” of 60 percent. Also, Jiangsu jumped several spots to become the most indebted province in 2017, and its debt repayment ability and risks are deserving of closer scrutiny.

Recommended articles

Political Censorship and the Communist-style Erosion of America
The 2020 US Presidential Election and the Communist Threat
Analyzing the Purge of Wang Qishan Aide Dong Hong
What the ‘Xi-Li Split’ Says About the State of the CCP Regime
Culture Strategy: Inoculating America and the World Against China’s ‘Virulent Strain of Communism’
The Trump Administration Is Tough and Strategic on China
Politics Watch: Hong Kong’s NatSec Set Up Signals ‘Supra-authority’ Status of the CCP’s NatSec Commission
Politics Watch: Ramifications of the Hong Kong Security Law for CCP Factional Politics
Politics Watch: Fourth Plenum Timing and Agenda Confirm Political Crisis in China
Influence Watch: Why the CCP Fears an Ideological Battle and a ‘Clash of Civilizations’
Politics Watch: Xi Faces Pushback from the Intelligence Apparatus
Why Xi Jinping Removed China’s Presidential Term Limit

Testimonials

“The breadth of SinoInsider’s insights—from economics through the military to governance, all underpinned by unparalleled reporting on the people in charge—is stunning. In my over fifty years of in-depth reading on the PRC, unclassified and classified, SinoInsider is in a class all by itself.”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Unique insights are available frequently from the reports of Sinoinsider.”
Michael Pillsbury, Senior Fellow for China Strategy, The Heritage Foundation
“Thank you for your information and analysis. Very useful.”
Prof. Ravni Thakur, University of Delhi, India
“SinoInsider’s research has helped me with investing in or getting out of Chinese companies.”
Charles Nelson, Managing Director, Murdock Capital Partners
“I value SinoInsider because of its always brilliant articles touching on, to name just a few, CCP history, current trends, and factional politics. Its concise and incisive analysis — absent the cliches that dominate China policy discussions in DC and U.S. corporate boardrooms — also represents a major contribution to the history of our era by clearly defining the threat the CCP poses to American peace and prosperity and global stability. I am grateful to SinoInsider — long may it thrive!”
Lee Smith, Author and journalist
“Your publication insights tremendously help us complete our regular analysis on in-depth issues of major importance. ”
Ms. Nicoleta Buracinschi, Embassy of Romania to the People’s Republic of China
"I’m a very happy, satisfied subscriber to your service and all the deep information it provides to increase our understanding. SinoInsider is profoundly helping to alter the public landscape when it comes to the PRC."
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Prof. Ming’s information about the Sino-U.S. trade war is invaluable for us in Taiwan’s technology industry. Our company basically acted on Prof. Ming’s predictions and enlarged our scale and enriched our product lines. That allowed us to deal capably with larger orders from China in 2019. ”
Mr. Chiu, Realtek R&D Center
“I am following China’s growing involvement in the Middle East, seeking to gain a better understanding of China itself and the impact of domestic constraints on its foreign policy. I have found SinoInsider quite helpful in expanding my knowledge and enriching my understanding of the issues at stake.”
Ehud Yaari, Lafer International Fellow, The Washington Institute
“SinoInsider’s research on the CCP examines every detail in great depth and is a very valuable reference. Foreign researchers will find SinoInsider’s research helpful in understanding what is really going on with the CCP and China. ”
Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
“The forecasts of Prof. Chu-cheng Ming and the SinoInsider team are an invaluable resource in guiding our news reporting direction and anticipating the next moves of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.”
Chan Miu-ling, Radio Television Hong Kong China Team Deputy Leader
“SinoInsider always publishes interesting and provocative work on Chinese elite politics. It is very worthwhile to follow the work of SinoInsider to get their take on factional struggles in particular.”
Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
“[SinoInsider has] been very useful in my class on American foreign policy because it contradicts the widely accepted argument that the U.S. should work cooperatively with China. And the whole point of the course is to expose students to conflicting approaches to contemporary major problems.”
Roy Licklider, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
“As a China-based journalist, SinoInsider is to me a very reliable source of information to understand deeply how the CCP works and learn more about the factional struggle and challenges that Xi Jinping may face. ”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“SinoInsider offers an interesting perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade war and North Korea. Their predictions are often accurate, which is definitely very helpful.”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels.”
John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
“My teaching at Cambridge and policy analysis for the UK audience have been informed by insights from your analyzes. ”
Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."
Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University
“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”
Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute
“SinoInsider has been one of my most useful (and enjoyable) resources”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Professor Ming and his team’s analyses of current affairs are very far-sighted and directionally accurate. In the present media environment where it is harder to distinguish between real and fake information, SinoInsider’s professional perspectives are much needed to make sense of a perilous and unpredictable world. ”
Liu Cheng-chuan, Professor Emeritus, National Chiayi University
“Since the 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition movement, I have periodically engaged with articles from SinoInsider. SinoInsider’s insights have deepened my understanding of the Chinese Communist Party’s regime. These resources have been invaluable in navigating the opaque world of Chinese elite politics, significantly enhancing my commentary on my Hong Kong online radio program, HK Peanut.”
Andrew To Kwan-hang, former chairman of the League of Social Democrats and founder of HK Peanut
Previous
Next