◎ Various signs indicate that the Hong Kong government could go ahead with a large-scale crackdown on the anti-extradition bill protests.
◎ Based on our observation, the CCP is again preparing to shift strategies in Hong Kong as it pursues short, medium, and long-term agendas.
◎ The outcome of the Fourth Plenum suggests that it unfolded as we previously analyzed.
◎ When faced with popular uprisings or protests, the CCP typically resorts to the seemingly counterintuitive move of inciting the demonstrators or an entire population to violence.
◎ CCP factional struggles are “you die, I live” and revolve around the preservation of interests and political legacies.
Politics Watch: Signs of Political Compromise and Crisis Surface as the PRC Marks its 70th Anniversary
◎ Why did Xi Jinping honor both Mao Zedong and a prominent Mao critic as part of the PRC’s 70th anniversary celebrations? We examine this and other signs.
◎ Songs have the power to become strong rallying calls for protest movements.
◎ Carrie Lam has technically not made any concessions yet to the protesters.
Politics Watch: Why Xi is Warning of ‘Risks and Challenges,’ Wants ‘Struggle Spirit’ from CCP Cadres
◎ Xi is making things very hard for himself and the PRC by defaulting to Party orthodoxy.
◎ It is becoming increasingly clear that the Sino-U.S. trade agreement has placed the Xi leadership in a Catch-22 situation.
Politics Watch: Beijing’s Struggles with CCP Orthodoxy and Factional Fighting Bode Ill for Hong Kong and the Trade Deal
◎ The Hong Kong protesters and the CCP are on course for a disastrous collision.
◎ The CCP seems to have made a “tactical adjustment” from outright coercion to suppression by terror to “stabilize” the situation in Hong Kong.
◎ The PRC’s recent public remarks about Hong Kong hold troubling implications.
◎ Black Swan events could be triggered on the mainland as the situation in Hong Kong deteriorates.
◎ We believe that the CCP is only making a tactical retreat in Hong Kong.