◎ The CCP seems to have made a “tactical adjustment” from outright coercion to suppression by terror to “stabilize” the situation in Hong Kong.
◎ The PRC’s recent public remarks about Hong Kong hold troubling implications.
◎ Black Swan events could be triggered on the mainland as the situation in Hong Kong deteriorates.
◎ We believe that the CCP is only making a tactical retreat in Hong Kong.
◎ There are several questionable details about the legislature break-in incident.
◎ Unless Xi resolves factional politics at home, China and the U.S. will find it very hard to get a trade deal.
◎ Xi is reasserting his paramount authority in the face of political pushback.
Politics Watch: Why the Chinese Ambassador to Britain is Rejecting Beijing’s Role in the Hong Kong Extradition Law
◎ Hong Kong’s chief executive and pro-Beijing lawmakers will likely try to determine Party central’s intention from Liu Xiaoming’s remarks and act accordingly.
◎ The present situation in Hong Kong is ripe for Xi’s political rivals to exploit and shift the balance of the struggle.
◎ Xi’s political rivals are “weaponizing” Party orthodoxy against the Xi camp in Hong Kong affairs.
◎ Several political signals in Xi’s inspection trip to Jiangxi are meant for different groups within the Party.
◎ The investigation of Liu Shiyu comes after an escalation in the Sino-U.S. trade war in early May and a worsening of bilateral relations.
◎ Beijing’s response to the trade war is shaped by the complexities of the CCP factional struggle.
◎ Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong’s recent public appearance signals to the Jiang faction and allied interest groups that they still have clout in CCP elite politics.
◎ In Italy, Xi signals strong determination to push through reforms.