In Beijing, Xi and Trump agree to ‘constructive strategic stability’ in US-China relations
CCP propaganda has used the Trump trip to subtly weave the narrative of a U.S. “change of heart” and a PRC “victory” in major power competition.
POLITICS

Risks Increase for Xi and the CCP as Foreign Investors Sour on China
Foreigners turning cold on China and the resulting capital flight appears to be having an impact on CCP factional politics.

Analyzing the Political Ramifications of Li Keqiang’s Sudden Death
We believe that there is a very low probability of Xi Jinping having attempted to assassinate Li Keqiang, given their long-standing political alliance and the fact that as a political force, Li posed no threat to Xi.

Why Beijing Went After Evergrande’s Hui Ka Yan
We believe that politics and economics are two driving factors behind the Xi Jinping leadership’s decision to subject Hui Ka Yan to “mandatory measures” at this time.

Xi’s Diplomatic No-shows Hint at Domestic Political Woes
Xi Jinping’s political problems will likely compound as more signs of the Chinese economy tanking emerge later this year and social instability rises.

Blinken’s China Trip Yields Little Improvement in Sino-US Relations
Despite appearances, Secretary Blinken’s visit to China has not done much to thaw Sino-U.S. relations or change its current dynamics.

Xi Tackles Regime Crises With Propaganda, Purges, and ‘Multilateralism’
Xi Jinping has turned to propaganda, purges, and a softened diplomatic approach to tackle the “various risks, challenges, and difficult problems” facing the regime.

Early Analysis of Jiang Zemin’s Death and Implications for CCP Factional Struggle
The Jiang faction could exploit Jiang Zemin’s death to undermine the Xi leadership by stirring up strong “anti-Xi, not anti-CCP” sentiments in China and overseas.

Analyzing Hu Jintao’s Early Exit From the 20th Party Congress Closing Ceremony
Hu almost certainly knew the result of the personnel reshuffle beforehand, and is unlikely to have suddenly found reason to be upset with Xi over the reshuffle.

How We Fared: Reviewing Our 20th Party Congress Forecast
We were able to forecast the 20th Party Congress leadership reshuffle with good accuracy without relying on insider sources using our unique political risk assessment model.
