• Those who ordered the report will receive a digital copy via email within 24 hours.
  • Scholars, research institutions, and institutions of higher education can fill up this form to get a special offer.

USD $500

USD $300

  • SinoInsider subscribers will receive a free digital copy of our China 2021 outlook via email.
  • We forecast the big questions for China in 2021:
    • What is the direction of Sino-U.S. relations after the U.S. presidential election?
    • Will the trade war and tech war resume?
    • Is Xi Jinping politically secure? 
    • Is China a “financial safe haven”?
    • Will China invade Taiwan? 
    • Will Hong Kong see communist “normalization” or is the tide turning against the CCP? 
    • Will a “Berlin Wall” moment for the CCP result in regime collapse, and will a post-communist China see mass chaos?
  • Our China 2021 outlook covers CCP elite politics, economics (including finance and currency), military, society, Taiwan cross-strait relations, Sino-U.S. relations, and geopolitics. 
  • Proven track record:
    • China 2018 outlook — 85% accurate
    • China 2019 outlook — over 80% accurate
    • China 2020 outlook — over 70% accurate
  • Key forecasts:
    • In 2018, we called a Sino-U.S. trade war “unavoidable”; forecasted an ideological turn in U.S. policy towards China; predicted the appointment of Wang Qishan as vice president; and anticipated key purges in the PRC.  
    • In 2019, we predicted the spread of contagious diseases in China; the timing of Trump’s China tariffs with great precision; the occurrence of Black Swan events for the Chinese Communist Party (Hong Kong); and the bankruptcy of financial institutions (Baoshang Bank and Hengfeng Bank were taken over by the authorities, a technical bankruptcy) and tech companies (Aiwujiwu, taojiji.com). 
    • In 2020, we called the CCP’s effort to cover-up the spread of contagious diseases in China and its use of unethical means to contain the spread of the diseases and eliminate the epidemic; the worsening of China’s economy across the board; food shortages and crisis in China; strong U.S. efforts to curb the CCP and the formation of an anti-CCP bloc; and U.S. sanctions against Hong Kong and PRC officials.

USD $3000

  • This report deep-dives into Xi’s mid-February coronavirus remarks and explains why they signal a shift in the political rules of the game in the PRC. This report also examines the far-reaching implications of the shift for CCP elite politics and Sino-U.S. relations.

Report outline:

– The political rules of the game in the People’s Republic of China have shifted several times since Xi Jinping took office in 2012.

  • The first shift occurred in 2013 with the introduction of the anti-corruption campaign.
  • The second shift took place in 2018 when Xi scrapped term limits for the PRC presidency.
  • The coronavirus outbreak appears to have triggered a third shift in 2020.

– Xi’s February remarks on biosecurity in the regime and his admitting knowledge of the coronavirus nearly a fortnight before the central government official confirmed the epidemic signal that the factional struggle in the CCP has shifted from “you die, I live” (你死我活) to “perish together” (同歸於盡).

– The third shift in the political rules of the game in the PRC has far-reaching implications for CCP elite politics and the Sino-U.S. relationship.

– Businesses, investors, and governments must recognize what the shift in the political rules of the game to mitigate Black Swan risks and seize opportunities.

USD $2500

  • Our authoritative analysis and forecasting of Chinese Communist Party elite politics are built on our understanding of the CCP characteristics, how political power is wielded in the Party, and factionalism.
  • Businesses, investors, and governments must track factionalism in the CCP to have a sense of political risk in China and make better decisions.
  • Scholars can consider using the factional approach to Chinese politics to take their research and scholarship to the next level.
  • We share some of our insights on CCP factionalism in this brief guide.
  • Report word count: 15,000 words.
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