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Xi Jinping enters 2022 needing to secure a norm-breaking third term and optimal personnel reshuffles at the 20th Party Congress. Meanwhile, Xi’s enemies at home and abroad have tremendous incentive to deny the Chinese leader his political wishlist and seek his ouster.
With huge stakes on the line for both sides, Xi and his rivals could find themselves taking bold, risky action in 2022 to achieve their respective agendas.
Our China 2022 Outlook contains forecasts about CCP elite politics, the Chinese economy, military, society, Taiwan cross-strait relations, Sino-U.S. relations, and geopolitics.
- This report deep-dives into Xi’s mid-February coronavirus remarks and explains why they signal a shift in the political rules of the game in the PRC. This report also examines the far-reaching implications of the shift for CCP elite politics and Sino-U.S. relations.
– The political rules of the game in the People’s Republic of China have shifted several times since Xi Jinping took office in 2012.
- The first shift occurred in 2013 with the introduction of the anti-corruption campaign.
- The second shift took place in 2018 when Xi scrapped term limits for the PRC presidency.
- The coronavirus outbreak appears to have triggered a third shift in 2020.
– Xi’s February remarks on biosecurity in the regime and his admitting knowledge of the coronavirus nearly a fortnight before the central government official confirmed the epidemic signal that the factional struggle in the CCP has shifted from “you die, I live” (你死我活) to “perish together” (同歸於盡).
– The third shift in the political rules of the game in the PRC has far-reaching implications for CCP elite politics and the Sino-U.S. relationship.
– Businesses, investors, and governments must recognize what the shift in the political rules of the game to mitigate Black Swan risks and seize opportunities.
- Our authoritative analysis and forecasting of Chinese Communist Party elite politics are built on our understanding of the CCP characteristics, how political power is wielded in the Party, and factionalism.
- Businesses, investors, and governments must track factionalism in the CCP to have a sense of political risk in China and make better decisions.
- Scholars can consider using the factional approach to Chinese politics to take their research and scholarship to the next level.
- We share some of our insights on CCP factionalism in this brief guide.
- Report word count: 15,000 words.