- SinoInsider subscribers will receive a free digital copy of our China 2021 outlook via email.
- We forecast the big questions for China in 2021:
- What is the direction of Sino-U.S. relations after the U.S. presidential election?
- Will the trade war and tech war resume?
- Is Xi Jinping politically secure?
- Is China a “financial safe haven”?
- Will China invade Taiwan?
- Will Hong Kong see communist “normalization” or is the tide turning against the CCP?
- Will a “Berlin Wall” moment for the CCP result in regime collapse, and will a post-communist China see mass chaos?
- Our China 2021 outlook covers CCP elite politics, economics (including finance and currency), military, society, Taiwan cross-strait relations, Sino-U.S. relations, and geopolitics.
- Proven track record:
- China 2018 outlook — 85% accurate
- China 2019 outlook — over 80% accurate
- China 2020 outlook — over 70% accurate
- Key forecasts:
- In 2018, we called a Sino-U.S. trade war “unavoidable”; forecasted an ideological turn in U.S. policy towards China; predicted the appointment of Wang Qishan as vice president; and anticipated key purges in the PRC.
- In 2019, we predicted the spread of contagious diseases in China; the timing of Trump’s China tariffs with great precision; the occurrence of Black Swan events for the Chinese Communist Party (Hong Kong); and the bankruptcy of financial institutions (Baoshang Bank and Hengfeng Bank were taken over by the authorities, a technical bankruptcy) and tech companies (Aiwujiwu, taojiji.com).
- In 2020, we called the CCP’s effort to cover-up the spread of contagious diseases in China and its use of unethical means to contain the spread of the diseases and eliminate the epidemic; the worsening of China’s economy across the board; food shortages and crisis in China; strong U.S. efforts to curb the CCP and the formation of an anti-CCP bloc; and U.S. sanctions against Hong Kong and PRC officials.
- This report deep-dives into Xi’s mid-February coronavirus remarks and explains why they signal a shift in the political rules of the game in the PRC. This report also examines the far-reaching implications of the shift for CCP elite politics and Sino-U.S. relations.
– The political rules of the game in the People’s Republic of China have shifted several times since Xi Jinping took office in 2012.
- The first shift occurred in 2013 with the introduction of the anti-corruption campaign.
- The second shift took place in 2018 when Xi scrapped term limits for the PRC presidency.
- The coronavirus outbreak appears to have triggered a third shift in 2020.
– Xi’s February remarks on biosecurity in the regime and his admitting knowledge of the coronavirus nearly a fortnight before the central government official confirmed the epidemic signal that the factional struggle in the CCP has shifted from “you die, I live” (你死我活) to “perish together” (同歸於盡).
– The third shift in the political rules of the game in the PRC has far-reaching implications for CCP elite politics and the Sino-U.S. relationship.
– Businesses, investors, and governments must recognize what the shift in the political rules of the game to mitigate Black Swan risks and seize opportunities.
- Our authoritative analysis and forecasting of Chinese Communist Party elite politics are built on our understanding of the CCP characteristics, how political power is wielded in the Party, and factionalism.
- Businesses, investors, and governments must track factionalism in the CCP to have a sense of political risk in China and make better decisions.
- Scholars can consider using the factional approach to Chinese politics to take their research and scholarship to the next level.
- We share some of our insights on CCP factionalism in this brief guide.
- Report word count: 15,000 words.