OUR REPORTS

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China 2021 Outlook: The CCP’s ‘Berlin Wall’ Moment Beckons (2nd Edition)

USD $500

  • SinoInsider subscribers will receive a free digital copy of our China 2021 outlook via email.
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  • We forecast the big questions for China in 2021:
    • What is the direction of Sino-U.S. relations after the U.S. presidential election?
    • Will the trade war and tech war resume?
    • Is Xi Jinping politically secure? 
    • Is China a “financial safe haven”?
    • Will China invade Taiwan? 
    • Will Hong Kong see communist “normalization” or is the tide turning against the CCP? 
    • Will a “Berlin Wall” moment for the CCP result in regime collapse, and will a post-communist China see mass chaos?
  • Our China 2021 outlook covers CCP elite politics, economics (including finance and currency), military, society, Taiwan cross-strait relations, Sino-U.S. relations, and geopolitics. 
  • Proven track record:
    • China 2018 outlook — 85% accurate
    • China 2019 outlook — over 80% accurate
    • China 2020 outlook — over 70% accurate
  • Key forecasts:
    • In 2018, we called a Sino-U.S. trade war “unavoidable”; forecasted an ideological turn in U.S. policy towards China; predicted the appointment of Wang Qishan as vice president; and anticipated key purges in the PRC.  
    • In 2019, we predicted the spread of contagious diseases in China; the timing of Trump’s China tariffs with great precision; the occurrence of Black Swan events for the Chinese Communist Party (Hong Kong); and the bankruptcy of financial institutions (Baoshang Bank and Hengfeng Bank were taken over by the authorities, a technical bankruptcy) and tech companies (Aiwujiwu, taojiji.com). 
    • In 2020, we called the CCP’s effort to cover-up the spread of contagious diseases in China and its use of unethical means to contain the spread of the diseases and eliminate the epidemic; the worsening of China’s economy across the board; food shortages and crisis in China; strong U.S. efforts to curb the CCP and the formation of an anti-CCP bloc; and U.S. sanctions against Hong Kong and PRC officials.

Special Report: Coronavirus Pushes CCP Factional Struggle to Inflection Point

USD $3000

  • This report deep-dives into Xi’s mid-February coronavirus remarks and explains why they signal a shift in the political rules of the game in the PRC. This report also examines the far-reaching implications of the shift for CCP elite politics and Sino-U.S. relations.
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Report outline:

– The political rules of the game in the People’s Republic of China have shifted several times since Xi Jinping took office in 2012.

  • The first shift occurred in 2013 with the introduction of the anti-corruption campaign.
  • The second shift took place in 2018 when Xi scrapped term limits for the PRC presidency.
  • The coronavirus outbreak appears to have triggered a third shift in 2020.

– Xi’s February remarks on biosecurity in the regime and his admitting knowledge of the coronavirus nearly a fortnight before the central government official confirmed the epidemic signal that the factional struggle in the CCP has shifted from “you die, I live” (你死我活) to “perish together” (同歸於盡).

– The third shift in the political rules of the game in the PRC has far-reaching implications for CCP elite politics and the Sino-U.S. relationship.

– Businesses, investors, and governments must recognize what the shift in the political rules of the game to mitigate Black Swan risks and seize opportunities.

A Brief Guide to CCP Factional Politics

USD $2500

  • Our authoritative analysis and forecasting of Chinese Communist Party elite politics are built on our understanding of the CCP characteristics, how political power is wielded in the Party, and factionalism.
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  • Businesses, investors, and governments must track factionalism in the CCP to have a sense of political risk in China and make better decisions.
  • Scholars can consider using the factional approach to Chinese politics to take their research and scholarship to the next level.
  • We share some of our insights on CCP factionalism in this brief guide.
  • Report word count: 15,000 words.

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James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Prof. Ming’s information about the Sino-U.S. trade war is invaluable for us in Taiwan’s technology industry. Our company basically acted on Prof. Ming’s predictions and enlarged our scale and enriched our product lines. That allowed us to deal capably with larger orders from China in 2019. ”
Mr. Chiu, Realtek R&D Center
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Ehud Yaari, Lafer International Fellow, The Washington Institute
“SinoInsider’s research on the CCP examines every detail in great depth and is a very valuable reference. Foreign researchers will find SinoInsider’s research helpful in understanding what is really going on with the CCP and China. ”
Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
“The forecasts of Prof. Chu-cheng Ming and the SinoInsider team are an invaluable resource in guiding our news reporting direction and anticipating the next moves of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.”
Chan Miu-ling, Radio Television Hong Kong China Team Deputy Leader
“SinoInsider always publishes interesting and provocative work on Chinese elite politics. It is very worthwhile to follow the work of SinoInsider to get their take on factional struggles in particular.”
Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
“[SinoInsider has] been very useful in my class on American foreign policy because it contradicts the widely accepted argument that the U.S. should work cooperatively with China. And the whole point of the course is to expose students to conflicting approaches to contemporary major problems.”
Roy Licklider, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
“As a China-based journalist, SinoInsider is to me a very reliable source of information to understand deeply how the CCP works and learn more about the factional struggle and challenges that Xi Jinping may face. ”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“SinoInsider offers an interesting perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade war and North Korea. Their predictions are often accurate, which is definitely very helpful.”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels.”
John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
“My teaching at Cambridge and policy analysis for the UK audience have been informed by insights from your analyzes. ”
Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."
Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University
“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”
Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute
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James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Professor Ming and his team’s analyses of current affairs are very far-sighted and directionally accurate. In the present media environment where it is harder to distinguish between real and fake information, SinoInsider’s professional perspectives are much needed to make sense of a perilous and unpredictable world. ”
Liu Cheng-chuan, Professor Emeritus, National Chiayi University
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