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- This report deep-dives into Xi’s mid-February coronavirus remarks and explains why they signal a shift in the political rules of the game in the PRC. This report also examines the far-reaching implications of the shift for CCP elite politics and Sino-U.S. relations.
– The political rules of the game in the People’s Republic of China have shifted several times since Xi Jinping took office in 2012.
- The first shift occurred in 2013 with the introduction of the anti-corruption campaign.
- The second shift took place in 2018 when Xi scrapped term limits for the PRC presidency.
- The coronavirus outbreak appears to have triggered a third shift in 2020.
– Xi’s February remarks on biosecurity in the regime and his admitting knowledge of the coronavirus nearly a fortnight before the central government official confirmed the epidemic signal that the factional struggle in the CCP has shifted from “you die, I live” (你死我活) to “perish together” (同歸於盡).
– The third shift in the political rules of the game in the PRC has far-reaching implications for CCP elite politics and the Sino-U.S. relationship.
– Businesses, investors, and governments must recognize what the shift in the political rules of the game to mitigate Black Swan risks and seize opportunities.
- Our authoritative analysis and forecasting of Chinese Communist Party elite politics are built on our understanding of the CCP characteristics, how political power is wielded in the Party, and factionalism.
- Businesses, investors, and governments must track factionalism in the CCP to have a sense of political risk in China and make better decisions.
- Scholars can consider using the factional approach to Chinese politics to take their research and scholarship to the next level.
- We share some of our insights on CCP factionalism in this brief guide.
- Report word count: 15,000 words.