WHY ELITE POLITICS?
Virtually all issues in China are downstream of CCP elite politics. At the core of elite politics are factional struggles within the Party. SinoInsider specializes in analyzing the CCP factional struggles that shape elite politics in the People’s Republic of China. Our understanding of the CCP also allows us to be on target in analyzing and forecasting geopolitical developments involving China.
China is not the Chinese Communist Party, and the Party does not represent the Chinese people and civilization. Rather, the CCP is a Marxist-Leninist organization that seeks world domination as it follows its deceptive and malign philosophy of struggle. Its influence weighs heavily on the external information environment allowing it to manipulate global narratives on China. Without a deep understanding of the CCP, all information and analysis on China are inaccurate and unreliable. SinoInsider leads the way in decoding the “black box” of China because our experts have a firm understanding of the CCP, especially its characteristics, operations, and factional struggle.
The Sinoinsider team is completely independent and free from the influence of Communist China. This is essential to our commitment to providing uncompromised information and analysis to our clients.
The rules of the game have changed since Xi Jinping took power in 2012. China is headed for tremendous change, and with change comes new risks and opportunities.
Surpass the competition today with SinoInsider.
China is ruled by the Chinese Communist Party, a Leninist organization that enacts top-down control over society. That is why virtually all issues in China, including economics, finance, and geopolitics, are affected by CCP elite politics. And at the core of elite politics are vicious “you die, I live” factional struggles within the Party.
Given the paramount role of the Party and elite politics on the mainland, assessing political risk should be the number one priority for businesses, investors, and governments concerned with China.
Our experts have collectively spent decades researching China and the Communist Party. We have a thorough grasp of how the CCP thinks and operates. We also deeply understand Party culture, elite politics, and how political power is wielded in the CCP. Finally, we recognize that China and the Communist Party are not one and the same.
Our expertise allows us to decode Partyspeak, see through fraudulent official data, interpret open source information, and produce cutting edge analysis and forecasting.
We are the gold standard in forecasting and analyzing CCP elite politics, Sino-U.S. relations, and China-related geopolitics.
Here is a snapshot of our top predictions (for more, see our full track record):
- We predicted the personnel reshuffles involving over 200 officials at the 19th Party Congress with over 80% accuracy.
- We predicted that Xi Jinping would not pick a successor at the 19th Congress.
- We predicted five months in advance and before any other forecaster that Wang Qishan would be the next Chinese vice president.
- We predicted the ranking and portfolio of all four Chinese vice premiers picked at the 2018 Two Sessions.
- We predicted six months early that a trade war between China and America is “unavoidable.”
- We predicted five months early that the United States would raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent.
- We predicted eight months early that U.S. policy towards China would take an ideological turn.
- We predicted four months before verification that the U.S. is seeking to reshape the CCP-hijacked world order.
- We predicted four months in advance that the U.S. ban on ZTE would be changed to a “probation.”
North Korean denuclearization
- After President Trump canceled the first Trump-Kim summit in May 2018, we immediately predicted that the summit would still be held in June as originally scheduled.
- In March 2018, we predicted that the Korean Peninsula would move towards peace and complete denuclearization.
Our analyses and predictions on China, Sino-U.S. relations, and other China-related issues can help businesses and investors sidestep risks and discover opportunities ahead of competitors.
Case study 1
Many Taiwanese companies were looking to increase their investments in mainland China in 2012. 2012, however, was a particularly volatile year in CCP elite politics, with the purge of Chongqing chief Bo Xilai being the most prominent example. After consulting with SinoInsider experts, a large Taiwanese company avoided losing 1 billion Taiwan dollar ($33 billion) on the mainland.
Case study 2
Taiwan-based Realtek Semiconductor Corp., the ninth-ranking global integrated circuit design company by revenue, acted on SinoInsider’s analysis and forecasting on the Sino-U.S. trade war in 2019. Realtek enlarged its scale and enriched its product lines to deal with larger orders from China, and in the third quarter of 2019, Realtek’s revenue grew 30.5% from a year ago (up $120 million), the highest revenue growth rate among the top ten global IC design companies.
|Top 10 Global IC Design Companies Revenue in Q3 2019 (USD Bn)|
|Rank||Company||2018Q3||2019Q3||Revenue difference||YoY change|
Case study 3
On June 9, 2019, Taiwanese newspaper Liberty Times reported the story of a large Taiwanese electronics company with a factory in mainland China that sought to remit NT$9 billion (about $300 million) from China to Taiwan. The Taiwanese company had to pay a foreign business income tax of 30 percent to the Chinese authorities and a 10 percent processing fee to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China. The company ended up remitting only 60 percent (NT$5.4 billion) to Taiwan.
In a scenario where the large Taiwnese electronics company:
- Learned from our China 2018 outlook that a Sino-U.S. trade war is “unavoidable”;
- Acted on our forecast by withdrawing from the mainland and begin rebuilding its supply chain in Taiwan within a month after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum to impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese goods;
Then the Taiwanese company would have avoided most trade war risks and:
- Saved on the 10 percent processing fee charged by China’s SAFE;
- Saved 9 percent in exchange rate difference;
- See better odds on purchasing industrial land in Taiwan;
- Have better talent recruitment options;
- Have a one-year headstart over its competitors in supply chain rebuilding;
- Gained a distinct competitive advantage with the escalation of the trade war.
In sum, by acting on our forecasting, the company would save at least $40 million from the first two items alone, and almost certainly save a far greater amount from the remaining four items.
In the wake of escalating Sino-U.S. tensions, we have received questions about
- How long the trade war might last and how companies should react.
- Possible scenarios that might unfold in future meetings between Trump and Xi Jinping.
- What might trigger Black Swan events in China, Black Swan leading indicators, and how to prepare for Black Swans.
- The intensification of the factional struggle in China and how it affects local governments/officials and foreign firms.
For custom consultation and research on the above topics or others, take the following steps:
1. Send us a message from the “Contact Us” page. Questions should be stated clearly; vague questions will not be entertained. We will reply to the inquiry within three (3) business days.
2. We will provide you with a consultation service plan and commence services upon your confirmation of the plan and after payment. Fees are determined by factors such as the scope of the consultation project, the duration of the project, manpower, etc.
3. Feedback will be collected at the conclusion of consultation services.