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Politics Watch: Xi Faces Pushback from the Intelligence Apparatus
◎ There is a pattern in recent years of “explosive information” about CCP elites being revealed during crucial periods in the factional struggle.
Politics Watch: Shock Turn in ‘Shaanxi Case’ Suggests Escalation of Factional Struggle
◎ The CCP’s political and legal affairs apparatus continues to oppose the Xi leadership, and the factional struggle intensifies.
Politics Watch: Sentencing of Fang Fenghui Portends Major Moves by Beijing, Hints at Regime Crisis
◎ The sentencing of Fang Fenghui at this time hints at three possible political developments.
Geopolitics Watch: US Strategic Advantages of Holding the Second Trump-Kim Meeting in Vietnam
◎ Manufacturers may eventually shift out of China to Vietnam and an economically liberalized North Korea.
Politics Watch: Guangdong Public Security Chief Says ‘Political Risk’ a Major Focus of 2019
◎ The remarks of Li Chunsheng are a further sign that the CCP is feeling the pressure from rising social tensions.
Politics Watch: Former Securities Regulator’s Move to Rural Supply Cooperative a Further Sign of Regime Crisis
◎ Liu Shiyu’s transfer to the CCP’s rural supply cooperative is more than just a “demotion.”
Politics Watch: Politburo Meeting and Study Session Reveal Regime Crisis
◎ Xi is likely seeking to stamp his paramount authority and unify the Party as political, economic, and social crises mount in China.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Meeting with Provincial-level Officials Hints at Unprecedented Crisis in the CCP
◎ The CCP regime is facing an immense, and likely unprecedented, political crisis.
China 2019 Outlook: A Decisive Year for Sino-US Relations
◎ Presenting our 2019 China outlook.
How We Fared in Forecasting China in 2018 — Macro Mastery
◎ Part two of our 2018 forecasting review.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Reform Anniversary Speech Signals Political Crisis in China
◎ We believe that Xi Jinping presently faces critical levels of political risk given the political and economic problems in the regime.
How We Fared in Forecasting China in 2018 — Our 2018 Outlook
◎ Part one of our 2018 forecasting review.
Geopolitics Watch: Why Trump Cited National Security as a Reason to Intervene in the Huawei Case
◎ The 90-day trade talks, if successful, will tackle U.S. national security concerns at its root.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Delivery of Trade Commitments Hinges on the CCP Factional Struggle
◎ Xi faces very high levels of political risk in the next 90 days.
Influence Watch: The CCP is Hijacking the Discourse on Chinese Influence
◎ We identify three broad strategic lines which the CCP is pursuing to hijack the discourse on Chinese influence.