We expect many of the internal and external crises plaguing the PRC to continue and worsen for Xi and the CCP in 2024.
We believe that there is a very low probability of Xi Jinping having attempted to assassinate Li Keqiang, given their long-standing political alliance and the fact that as a political force, Li posed no threat to Xi.
Several metrics suggest that China is in a recession and experiencing deflation.
As crises come to a head, political risk levels for Xi and the CCP will rise exponentially in 2023.
The Jiang faction could exploit Jiang Zemin’s death to undermine the Xi leadership by stirring up strong “anti-Xi, not anti-CCP” sentiments in China and overseas.
The report presents several possible personnel arrangements for the Politburo and its Standing Committee, as well as list personnel who could serve on the 20th Central Committee and Central Military Commission.
Bank trouble in China could in turn worsen social and economic instability in China to the detriment of Xi Jinping and the CCP.
The Shanghai lockdown and those in other areas are starting to weigh on the Chinese economy.
◎ The following analysis was first published in the February 10, 2022 edition of our subscriber-only SinoWeekly Plus newsletter. Subscribe to SinoInsider to view past analyses in our newsletter archive.