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Risk Watch: Wuhan Epidemic Paralyzes China’s Economy, Threatening Global Impact
◎ A wave of economic shocks is coming to countries with significant China trade as the novel coronavirus epidemic halts production, travel, and supply chains.
Emergency Warning: The CCP’s Response to the Wuhan Virus Foreshadows a Global Crisis
◎ We believe that there is now a serious epidemic in Wuhan and the beginnings of a humanitarian crisis in mainland China.
Politics Watch: Wuhan Coronavirus Heightens Political Risks for the CCP, Xi
◎ It is almost second nature for PRC officials steeped in CCP culture to engage in a cover-up.
China 2020 Outlook: Escalating Sino-US Rivalry Reshapes Global Geopolitics
◎ Presenting our China 2020 outlook.
Geopolitics Watch: US Trade Deal Pressure Could Trigger Black Swans in China
◎ Messaging from China and the U.S. suggest that both sides want to make the deal happen.
Politics Watch: Arrest of Defecting Chinese Spy’s Boss Raises Risks for the CCP Regime
◎ If Xiang Xin is indeed a PRC military intelligence officer, then the implications of his being held in custody in Taiwan are potentially far-reaching and disastrous for the CCP regime.
Politics Watch: Defecting Chinese Spy Disrupts the CCP’s Political Interference Operations
◎ Wang Liqiang’s exposing of the CCP’s plans to interfere in the 2020 Taiwan presidential election will likely have a huge impact on the election.
Politics Watch: Mounting Political Risks Leave Xi, CCP Vulnerable to Regime-threatening Black Swans
◎ The external and domestic risks facing the CCP and Xi Jinping are coming to a head.
Risk Watch: A Watershed Moment Nears as the Hong Kong Situation Deteriorates
◎ The CCP, the Hong Kong government, and the Hong Kong police are “pouring oil on fire” by ramping up violent tactics and disinformation operations to suppress the Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests.
Politics Watch: Early Analysis of the CCP Fourth Plenum
◎ The outcome of the Fourth Plenum suggests that it unfolded as we previously analyzed.
Geopolitics Watch: Pompeo’s ‘China Challenge’ Speech Hints at the Future of Sino-US Relations
◎ Secretary Pompeo’s speech affirms several trends in U.S. policy toward the PRC which we have identified since July 2018.
Politics Watch: Signs of Political Compromise and Crisis Surface as the PRC Marks its 70th Anniversary
◎ Why did Xi Jinping honor both Mao Zedong and a prominent Mao critic as part of the PRC’s 70th anniversary celebrations? We examine this and other signs.
Risk Watch: What the Police Shooting of a Protester Means for Hong Kong
◎ A Black Swan event for the Chinese regime could be just around the corner.
Risk Watch: The CCP Deploys ‘Chain Stratagems’ to Reassert Control Over Hong Kong
◎ Through the use of “chain stratagems,” the CCP is looking to turn a negative situation into a positive one for its regime.
Politics Watch: Fourth Plenum Timing and Agenda Confirm Political Crisis in China
◎ It is becoming increasingly clear that the Sino-U.S. trade agreement has placed the Xi leadership in a Catch-22 situation.