At Third Plenum, CCP Opts for Political Control Over Economic Liberalization
Beijing opted for greater control over economic liberalization at the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee.
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Xi Jinping cannot be said to have returned a “winner” from his trip to Europe given the lack of substantive diplomatic agreements and the continued impasse over the West’s concerns with the PRC’s export of excess capacity and support of Russia.
Xi Enters 2024 Facing ‘Severe and Complex’ Political Troubles
Xi Jinping appears to be addressing his political problems by doubling down on the anti-corruption campaign.
China Outlook 2024: Political Black Swans Loom Large for Xi and the CCP
We expect many of the internal and external crises plaguing the PRC to continue and worsen for Xi and the CCP in 2024.
Analyzing the Political Ramifications of Li Keqiang’s Sudden Death
We believe that there is a very low probability of Xi Jinping having attempted to assassinate Li Keqiang, given their long-standing political alliance and the fact that as a political force, Li posed no threat to Xi.
Official Data Deepens Pessimism Over the Chinese Economy
Several metrics suggest that China is in a recession and experiencing deflation.
China Outlook 2023: China at Historical Crossroads as Crises Surge
As crises come to a head, political risk levels for Xi and the CCP will rise exponentially in 2023.
Early Analysis of Jiang Zemin’s Death and Implications for CCP Factional Struggle
The Jiang faction could exploit Jiang Zemin’s death to undermine the Xi leadership by stirring up strong “anti-Xi, not anti-CCP” sentiments in China and overseas.
20th Party Congress Forecast: Five Scenarios for the Politburo and its Standing Committee
The report presents several possible personnel arrangements for the Politburo and its Standing Committee, as well as list personnel who could serve on the 20th Central Committee and Central Military Commission.
China’s Banking Trouble Points to Financial Contagion, Declining Economy
Bank trouble in China could in turn worsen social and economic instability in China to the detriment of Xi Jinping and the CCP.