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China 2020 Outlook: Escalating Sino-US Rivalry Reshapes Global Geopolitics
◎ Presenting our China 2020 outlook.
Geopolitics Watch: US Trade Deal Pressure Could Trigger Black Swans in China
◎ Messaging from China and the U.S. suggest that both sides want to make the deal happen.
Politics Watch: Arrest of Defecting Chinese Spy’s Boss Raises Risks for the CCP Regime
◎ If Xiang Xin is indeed a PRC military intelligence officer, then the implications of his being held in custody in Taiwan are potentially far-reaching and disastrous for the CCP regime.
Politics Watch: Defecting Chinese Spy Disrupts the CCP’s Political Interference Operations
◎ Wang Liqiang’s exposing of the CCP’s plans to interfere in the 2020 Taiwan presidential election will likely have a huge impact on the election.
Politics Watch: Mounting Political Risks Leave Xi, CCP Vulnerable to Regime-threatening Black Swans
◎ The external and domestic risks facing the CCP and Xi Jinping are coming to a head.
Risk Watch: A Watershed Moment Nears as the Hong Kong Situation Deteriorates
◎ The CCP, the Hong Kong government, and the Hong Kong police are “pouring oil on fire” by ramping up violent tactics and disinformation operations to suppress the Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests.
Politics Watch: Early Analysis of the CCP Fourth Plenum
◎ The outcome of the Fourth Plenum suggests that it unfolded as we previously analyzed.
Geopolitics Watch: Pompeo’s ‘China Challenge’ Speech Hints at the Future of Sino-US Relations
◎ Secretary Pompeo’s speech affirms several trends in U.S. policy toward the PRC which we have identified since July 2018.
Politics Watch: Signs of Political Compromise and Crisis Surface as the PRC Marks its 70th Anniversary
◎ Why did Xi Jinping honor both Mao Zedong and a prominent Mao critic as part of the PRC’s 70th anniversary celebrations? We examine this and other signs.
Risk Watch: What the Police Shooting of a Protester Means for Hong Kong
◎ A Black Swan event for the Chinese regime could be just around the corner.
Risk Watch: The CCP Deploys ‘Chain Stratagems’ to Reassert Control Over Hong Kong
◎ Through the use of “chain stratagems,” the CCP is looking to turn a negative situation into a positive one for its regime.
Politics Watch: Fourth Plenum Timing and Agenda Confirm Political Crisis in China
◎ It is becoming increasingly clear that the Sino-U.S. trade agreement has placed the Xi leadership in a Catch-22 situation.
Geopolitics Watch: The CCP ‘Advances to Retreat’ on Hong Kong
◎ The CCP’s goal of “advancing to retreat” is to calm things down in the city and focus its energies instead on other pressing matters, such as the Sino-U.S. trade war and the 2020 Taiwan presidential election.
Geopolitics Watch: The US and the CCP Have Reached a Watershed Moment on Hong Kong
◎ How the U.S. and the world respond to the PRC’s statements and actions concerning Hong Kong over the coming days and weeks would determine whether or not the world sees another Tiananmen-style incident.
Influence Watch: Why the CCP Reacted Strongly to an Open Letter Supporting Trump’s China Policy
◎ We believe that the CCP’s response to the “Stay the Course” letter reveals deep insecurities and fears.