◎ The CCP appears to be gambling that U.S. domestic elections play out in a manner that allows it to avoid a consequential clash with America.
◎ The Sino-U.S. trade conflict will reveal more instances of corruption in China’s food supply system, and expose a food crisis.
◎ SOEs cannot pay interest on their financing liabilities even if they are granted very favorable interest rates, let alone pay principle.
◎ The new U.S.-EU trade agreement, while still being finalized, would likely come to be seen as a watershed in Trump’s effort to rebuild the global order.
◎ The trade war forces Xi and the CCP to face an intractable political contradiction.
◎ Based on our estimate, implicit debt in some cities and counties was three to four times higher that of their public debt.
◎ The Sino-U.S. trade war is proving to be a quagmire for the CCP propaganda apparatus.
◎ The timing and tempo of the U.S. strategies is vital to ensure mission success.
◎ Xi’s policies and personnel changes have combined to curb the PLAC’s authority and weaken its influence.
◎ We examine the “worst-case scenario” of what the implementation of U.S. tariffs might mean for America, China, and North Korea.
◎ We predicted in March after Kim met Xi in Beijing that North Korea would denuclearize and a peace treaty to end the Korean war would be signed.
◎ The new ZTE deal could later be regarded as an important milestone by the U.S. in advancing national security interests in dealings with China.
◎ We believe that the Singapore summit could still be held in June.
◎ The U.S. is both winning the trade war with China and weakening the CCP regime.