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Politics Watch: Guangdong Public Security Chief Says ‘Political Risk’ a Major Focus of 2019
◎ The remarks of Li Chunsheng are a further sign that the CCP is feeling the pressure from rising social tensions.
Politics Watch: Former Securities Regulator’s Move to Rural Supply Cooperative a Further Sign of Regime Crisis
◎ Liu Shiyu’s transfer to the CCP’s rural supply cooperative is more than just a “demotion.”
Politics Watch: Politburo Meeting and Study Session Reveal Regime Crisis
◎ Xi is likely seeking to stamp his paramount authority and unify the Party as political, economic, and social crises mount in China.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Meeting with Provincial-level Officials Hints at Unprecedented Crisis in the CCP
◎ The CCP regime is facing an immense, and likely unprecedented, political crisis.
China 2019 Outlook: A Decisive Year for Sino-US Relations
◎ Presenting our 2019 China outlook.
How We Fared in Forecasting China in 2018 — Macro Mastery
◎ Part two of our 2018 forecasting review.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Reform Anniversary Speech Signals Political Crisis in China
◎ We believe that Xi Jinping presently faces critical levels of political risk given the political and economic problems in the regime.
How We Fared in Forecasting China in 2018 — Our 2018 Outlook
◎ Part one of our 2018 forecasting review.
Geopolitics Watch: Why Trump Cited National Security as a Reason to Intervene in the Huawei Case
◎ The 90-day trade talks, if successful, will tackle U.S. national security concerns at its root.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Delivery of Trade Commitments Hinges on the CCP Factional Struggle
◎ Xi faces very high levels of political risk in the next 90 days.
Influence Watch: The CCP is Hijacking the Discourse on Chinese Influence
◎ We identify three broad strategic lines which the CCP is pursuing to hijack the discourse on Chinese influence.
Risk Watch: Rising Business Failure and Unemployment Heighten Political Risk in China
◎ The CCP’s claim that migrants workers are returning home to partake in “entrepreneurship” is likely an attempt to put a positive spin on rising unemployment.
Geopolitics Watch: The CCP Turns to the Red Matrix in Full Court Press Against Trump
◎ Using the Red Matrix aggressively is a double-edged sword for the CCP when the U.S. is on high-alert for CCP influence and interference operations.
Geopolitics Watch: Trump-Xi Meeting at G20 Won’t Curb US Pressure
◎ Xi Jinping and Donald Trump likely find it to be in their interest to hold a summit at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires.
Geopolitics Watch: Did the CCP’s ‘Gamble’ on the US Midterm Election Pay Off?
◎ The midterm results should have little effect on influencing the Sino-U.S. trade war.