recommended
Politics Watch: Mounting Political Risks Leave Xi, CCP Vulnerable to Regime-threatening Black Swans
◎ The external and domestic risks facing the CCP and Xi Jinping are coming to a head.
Risk Watch: A Watershed Moment Nears as the Hong Kong Situation Deteriorates
◎ The CCP, the Hong Kong government, and the Hong Kong police are “pouring oil on fire” by ramping up violent tactics and disinformation operations to suppress the Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests.
Politics Watch: Early Analysis of the CCP Fourth Plenum
◎ The outcome of the Fourth Plenum suggests that it unfolded as we previously analyzed.
Geopolitics Watch: Pompeo’s ‘China Challenge’ Speech Hints at the Future of Sino-US Relations
◎ Secretary Pompeo’s speech affirms several trends in U.S. policy toward the PRC which we have identified since July 2018.
Politics Watch: Signs of Political Compromise and Crisis Surface as the PRC Marks its 70th Anniversary
◎ Why did Xi Jinping honor both Mao Zedong and a prominent Mao critic as part of the PRC’s 70th anniversary celebrations? We examine this and other signs.
Risk Watch: What the Police Shooting of a Protester Means for Hong Kong
◎ A Black Swan event for the Chinese regime could be just around the corner.
Risk Watch: The CCP Deploys ‘Chain Stratagems’ to Reassert Control Over Hong Kong
◎ Through the use of “chain stratagems,” the CCP is looking to turn a negative situation into a positive one for its regime.
Politics Watch: Fourth Plenum Timing and Agenda Confirm Political Crisis in China
◎ It is becoming increasingly clear that the Sino-U.S. trade agreement has placed the Xi leadership in a Catch-22 situation.
Geopolitics Watch: The CCP ‘Advances to Retreat’ on Hong Kong
◎ The CCP’s goal of “advancing to retreat” is to calm things down in the city and focus its energies instead on other pressing matters, such as the Sino-U.S. trade war and the 2020 Taiwan presidential election.
Geopolitics Watch: The US and the CCP Have Reached a Watershed Moment on Hong Kong
◎ How the U.S. and the world respond to the PRC’s statements and actions concerning Hong Kong over the coming days and weeks would determine whether or not the world sees another Tiananmen-style incident.
Influence Watch: Why the CCP Reacted Strongly to an Open Letter Supporting Trump’s China Policy
◎ We believe that the CCP’s response to the “Stay the Course” letter reveals deep insecurities and fears.
Politics Watch: Violence in Hong Kong and the CCP Factional Struggle
◎ Black Swan events could be triggered on the mainland as the situation in Hong Kong deteriorates.
Geopolitics Watch: Why the CCP Might Think That the US Has Gone ‘Nuclear’ with Human Rights
◎ We believe that the CCP is suspecting that the U.S. has decided to use the Falun Gong issue against the PRC.
China is Not an Enemy of the US and the World. But the CCP is.
◎ We offer seven points of response to an open letter on U.S. policy on China by a hundred U.S. scholars, former diplomats and military officials, and business leaders.
Politics Watch: G20 ‘Loser’ Xi Faces Increased Political Risks at Home
◎ Unless Xi resolves factional politics at home, China and the U.S. will find it very hard to get a trade deal.