◎ The external and domestic risks facing the CCP and Xi Jinping are coming to a head.
◎ The CCP, the Hong Kong government, and the Hong Kong police are “pouring oil on fire” by ramping up violent tactics and disinformation operations to suppress the Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests.
◎ The outcome of the Fourth Plenum suggests that it unfolded as we previously analyzed.
◎ Secretary Pompeo’s speech affirms several trends in U.S. policy toward the PRC which we have identified since July 2018.
Politics Watch: Signs of Political Compromise and Crisis Surface as the PRC Marks its 70th Anniversary
◎ Why did Xi Jinping honor both Mao Zedong and a prominent Mao critic as part of the PRC’s 70th anniversary celebrations? We examine this and other signs.
◎ A Black Swan event for the Chinese regime could be just around the corner.
◎ Through the use of “chain stratagems,” the CCP is looking to turn a negative situation into a positive one for its regime.
◎ It is becoming increasingly clear that the Sino-U.S. trade agreement has placed the Xi leadership in a Catch-22 situation.
◎ The CCP’s goal of “advancing to retreat” is to calm things down in the city and focus its energies instead on other pressing matters, such as the Sino-U.S. trade war and the 2020 Taiwan presidential election.
◎ How the U.S. and the world respond to the PRC’s statements and actions concerning Hong Kong over the coming days and weeks would determine whether or not the world sees another Tiananmen-style incident.
◎ We believe that the CCP’s response to the “Stay the Course” letter reveals deep insecurities and fears.
◎ Black Swan events could be triggered on the mainland as the situation in Hong Kong deteriorates.
◎ We believe that the CCP is suspecting that the U.S. has decided to use the Falun Gong issue against the PRC.
◎ We offer seven points of response to an open letter on U.S. policy on China by a hundred U.S. scholars, former diplomats and military officials, and business leaders.
◎ Unless Xi resolves factional politics at home, China and the U.S. will find it very hard to get a trade deal.