◎ We believe that Trump and his administration have identified a very real threat to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.
◎ The CCP is carrying out a controlled “blow up” of local government debts and transferring the risks to the private sector.
◎ In hijacking the new Cold War narrative, the CCP has resorted to old tropes and mixed in new disinformation
◎ The U.S. recognizes that the China threat is everywhere and existential, and has made addressing the issue the top priority.
◎ We have observed that CCP propaganda assets have been spreading targeted propaganda narratives to influential individuals and organizations in the U.S. in recent months.
◎ America prioritizing its relations with the ROC over the PRC is a return to the post-WWII, pre-Nixon state of affairs.
◎ The CCP appears to be gambling that U.S. domestic elections play out in a manner that allows it to avoid a consequential clash with America.
◎ The Sino-U.S. trade conflict will reveal more instances of corruption in China’s food supply system, and expose a food crisis.
◎ SOEs cannot pay interest on their financing liabilities even if they are granted very favorable interest rates, let alone pay principle.
◎ The new U.S.-EU trade agreement, while still being finalized, would likely come to be seen as a watershed in Trump’s effort to rebuild the global order.
◎ The trade war forces Xi and the CCP to face an intractable political contradiction.
◎ Based on our estimate, implicit debt in some cities and counties was three to four times higher that of their public debt.
◎ The Sino-U.S. trade war is proving to be a quagmire for the CCP propaganda apparatus.
◎ The timing and tempo of the U.S. strategies is vital to ensure mission success.