China Outlook 2026: Xi to Focus on Domestic Stability Amid External Volatility
Our China 2026 outlook contains 28 predictions covering eight categories.
OUR RESEARCH

Analyzing the purge of He Weidong, Miao Hua, and seven other senior military officers
Xi Jinping likely intends to strengthen his control over the PLA by purging the nine generals and others associated with them.

Xi Begins Laying Groundwork to Take Fourth Term as CCP Head
CCP deploys an extensive propaganda campaign to prop up Xi’s leadership amidst economic and diplomatic troubles.

Why Beijing’s Attempt to Force Pension Payments Could Backfire
By resorting to short-term fixes to China’s pension system and other economic woes, Xi Jinping and the CCP are sowing the seeds of larger crises.

China 2024 Outlook Review
◎ We made 27 predictions covering eight topics in our China 2024 Outlook. Twenty-four of those predictions were verified over the year, giving us a forecasting accuracy of 88.9 percent.

Power and Propaganda: Observable Indications About Whether Xi Has Lost Control
Despite purges of allies, Xi appears to remain in charge as Communist Party mouthpieces affirm his authority and ideological line.

What the Politburo’s New Regulation on Policy Coordination Say About Xi’s Power
Publicly available information and how Xi and the CCP have been operating in recent months do not show any indication that Xi’s power has been seriously threatened as speculated

Xi is ‘Losing Power.’ Or is He?
We see at least two possible and overlapping reasons for the persistence of the “Xi losing power” narrative.

US-China Tariff Pause Brings Scant Relief for Beijing
Beijing’s ability to make economic concessions to Washington is likely limited by its need to maintain the Communist Party’s power and stability.

Massive US Tariffs Compound the CCP’s Problems
The Sino-U.S. trade conflict is shaping up to be a prolonged affair rather than a brief bout of turbulence.
Search past entries by date
- January 2026
- December 2025
- November 2025
- October 2025
- September 2025
- August 2025
- July 2025
- June 2025
- May 2025
- April 2025
- March 2025
- February 2025
- January 2025
- December 2024
- November 2024
- October 2024
- September 2024
- August 2024
- July 2024
- June 2024
- May 2024
- April 2024
- March 2024
- February 2024
- January 2024
- December 2023
- November 2023
- October 2023
- September 2023
- August 2023
- July 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- April 2023
- March 2023
- February 2023
- January 2023
- December 2022
- November 2022
- October 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- December 2021
- November 2021
- October 2021
- September 2021
- August 2021
- July 2021
- June 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- November 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- July 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
