Xi Jinping’s political problems will likely compound as more signs of the Chinese economy tanking emerge later this year and social instability rises.
Economic worries are just one dimension of the challenges facing Beijing.
Several metrics suggest that China is in a recession and experiencing deflation.
Despite appearances, Secretary Blinken’s visit to China has not done much to thaw Sino-U.S. relations or change its current dynamics.
Xi Jinping has turned to propaganda, purges, and a softened diplomatic approach to tackle the “various risks, challenges, and difficult problems” facing the regime.
Xi has long consolidated power with an eye to sidelining factional rivals and improving Beijing’s “governing capacity” so as to better navigate the CCP regime out of crises.
As crises come to a head, political risk levels for Xi and the CCP will rise exponentially in 2023.
The Jiang faction could exploit Jiang Zemin’s death to undermine the Xi leadership by stirring up strong “anti-Xi, not anti-CCP” sentiments in China and overseas.
Hu almost certainly knew the result of the personnel reshuffle beforehand, and is unlikely to have suddenly found reason to be upset with Xi over the reshuffle.
We were able to forecast the 20th Party Congress leadership reshuffle with good accuracy without relying on insider sources using our unique political risk assessment model.