◎ The investigation of Liu Shiyu comes after an escalation in the Sino-U.S. trade war in early May and a worsening of bilateral relations.
◎ Existential struggles are not conducive to compromise, especially when the opposing sides see the competition in those stark terms.
◎ Beijing’s response to the trade war is shaped by the complexities of the CCP factional struggle.
◎ China is headed for tremendous change and political Black Swan events are on the horizon.
◎ Consistency and constancy in support of both America’s national interest and the rules-based international order have been in short supply over the past decade or more.
◎ We believe that there is a very good chance that China and the U.S. will get a trade agreement even as American tariffs go into effect.
◎ While the CCP has sought to equate itself with China, China and the Chinese regime are in fact two separate entities with opposing values.
◎ How the CCP reacts to Trump’s tariff threat would determine the outcome of the trade talks.
◎ Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong’s recent public appearance signals to the Jiang faction and allied interest groups that they still have clout in CCP elite politics.
◎ The Trump administration should continue to emphasize that North Korea’s nuclear program ultimately does not ensure regime survival but regime demise.
◎ The CCP will likely try to drag out the trade negotiations, the implementation of the trade deal, and the enforcement mediation process to gain an advantage in the “new cold war.”
◎ The hukou relaxation policy could prove to be a double-edged sword for the CCP.
◎ As tensions rise in this new quasi-cold war period, the Coast Guard is edging closer to a continuing wartime relationship with the Navy.
◎ The China threat toward Taiwan has to be confronted at some point.