There is an increased probability of cross-strait crisis in 2022.
Presenting our China 2022 outlook.
Qu Qingshan and Jiang Jinquan’s articles pave the way for Xi Jinping to move against the Jiang faction.
Escalating Xi-Jiang faction struggle will raise political risk levels in China in 2022.
Xi’s “historical resolution” quietly lays the groundwork for him to move the Party further away from the “collective leadership” model and towards strongman dictatorship.
Xi is now under tremendous pressure to perform after having artificially inflated his “quan wei” and image through propaganda and the “historical resolution.”
The downfall of Sun Lijun and Fu Zhenghua appears to be connected to Xi’s effort at marginalizing and securing a decisive victory against the Jiang faction.
Biden has edged back to the accommodation policies of the Clinton and Obama administrations.
The Biden team seems to believe it can achieve a kind of Cool War modus vivendi with Beijing.