◎ The CCP does not want a trade deal on Trump’s terms to begin with because such a deal would cause existential problems for the communist regime.
◎ The CCP’s goal of “advancing to retreat” is to calm things down in the city and focus its energies instead on other pressing matters, such as the Sino-U.S. trade war and the 2020 Taiwan presidential election.
◎ If the CCP has identified that Trump will do anything to get his trade deal, they will definitely call his bluff and turn the trade deal into his greatest weakness.
◎ Trump’s ambiguous messaging on the Hong Kong issue will embolden the CCP to keep pushing the limits in suppressing the protesters.
◎ The PRC and the U.S. have unwittingly stumbled into battle with the CCP devaluing the RMB and the U.S. declaring China a currency manipulator.
◎ How the U.S. and the world respond to the PRC’s statements and actions concerning Hong Kong over the coming days and weeks would determine whether or not the world sees another Tiananmen-style incident.
◎ We believe that the CCP is suspecting that the U.S. has decided to use the Falun Gong issue against the PRC.
◎ The CCP is especially vulnerable to attacks on its human rights record.
◎ We offer seven points of response to an open letter on U.S. policy on China by a hundred U.S. scholars, former diplomats and military officials, and business leaders.
◎ The Trump-Kim DMZ meeting somewhat cancels out China’s diplomatic effort in Pyongyang before the G20 summit in Osaka.
◎ Should current trends hold, the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 will likely do little to prevent an escalation of the Sino-U.S. “new cold war.”
Geopolitics Watch: How the Trump-Xi G20 Meeting Could Affect Sino-US Relations in the Second Half of 2019
◎ Both President Trump and Xi Jinping have signaled strongly that they want to meet each other at the G20 in Osaka.
◎ The Trump administration has moved to challenge the regime on Huawei, human rights and Taiwan, as well as strengthen alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.
◎ The CCP will find it very hard to return to negotiations in the current geopolitical climate.
◎ We believe that there is a very good chance that China and the U.S. will get a trade agreement even as American tariffs go into effect.