◎ Any “backsliding” by North Korea at this stage would be counterproductive for Kim Jong Un as it would likely cause the U.S. to redouble its focus on resolving trade with China.
◎ The CCP factional struggle will escalate as Xi tries to force through reforms to meet U.S. trade demands.
◎ The propaganda narratives in Xinhua lay the groundwork for Xi to agree to U.S. demands on sensitive issues like structural reform without losing face at home.
◎ Xi has pressing need to compromise, and Trump will not accept a “superficial” trade deal.
◎ Manufacturers may eventually shift out of China to Vietnam and an economically liberalized North Korea.
◎ America could have the ZTE model in mind in enforcing the trade deal.
◎ Xi could have summoned Kim to Beijing to signal cooperation with America on North Korean denuclearization and improve the odds of successful trade talks.
◎ From its establishment, Communist China has been committed to the destruction or the drastic reconstruction of the global order
◎ The 90-day trade talks, if successful, will tackle U.S. national security concerns at its root.
◎ Xi faces very high levels of political risk in the next 90 days.
◎ Xi was likely seeking a pause going into the G20. The concessions which he made to gain the pause suggests a “pyrrhic victory.”
◎ Pence’s message to Beijing was firm and clear: “The United States … will not change course until China changes its ways.”
◎ Using the Red Matrix aggressively is a double-edged sword for the CCP when the U.S. is on high-alert for CCP influence and interference operations.
◎ Xi Jinping and Donald Trump likely find it to be in their interest to hold a summit at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires.
◎ The midterm results should have little effect on influencing the Sino-U.S. trade war.