◎ We believe that there is a very good chance that China and the U.S. will get a trade agreement even as American tariffs go into effect.
◎ How the CCP reacts to Trump’s tariff threat would determine the outcome of the trade talks.
◎ The CCP will likely try to drag out the trade negotiations, the implementation of the trade deal, and the enforcement mediation process to gain an advantage in the “new cold war.”
◎ The CCP’s modus operandi ensures that the EU-China joint statement might as well be a blank sheet of paper.
◎ The CCP’s trade war strategy is revealed in its propaganda. Meanwhile, America struggles with the Party’s delaying tactic.
◎ The stalemate in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations has led to a stalemate in global geopolitics.
◎ Any “backsliding” by North Korea at this stage would be counterproductive for Kim Jong Un as it would likely cause the U.S. to redouble its focus on resolving trade with China.
◎ The CCP factional struggle will escalate as Xi tries to force through reforms to meet U.S. trade demands.
◎ The propaganda narratives in Xinhua lay the groundwork for Xi to agree to U.S. demands on sensitive issues like structural reform without losing face at home.
◎ Xi has pressing need to compromise, and Trump will not accept a “superficial” trade deal.
◎ Manufacturers may eventually shift out of China to Vietnam and an economically liberalized North Korea.
◎ America could have the ZTE model in mind in enforcing the trade deal.
◎ Xi could have summoned Kim to Beijing to signal cooperation with America on North Korean denuclearization and improve the odds of successful trade talks.
◎ From its establishment, Communist China has been committed to the destruction or the drastic reconstruction of the global order
◎ The 90-day trade talks, if successful, will tackle U.S. national security concerns at its root.