◎ A closer examination of recent developments suggests dim prospects for the “phase one” trade deal and future Sino-U.S. trade agreements.
◎ Secretary Pompeo’s speech affirms several trends in U.S. policy toward the PRC which we have identified since July 2018.
◎ Mike Pence generally adopted a more conciliatory tone towards China in his Wilson Center speech as compared with his fiery, hard-hitting Hudson Institute speech in October 2018.
◎ We look at some key factors that would make or break trade negotiations between America and China.
◎ The Trump administration is complementing the CCP’s delaying tactics with a “phase-by-phase” approach to a trade deal, and is falling into the CCP’s trap.
◎ The CCP does not want a trade deal on Trump’s terms to begin with because such a deal would cause existential problems for the communist regime.
◎ The CCP’s goal of “advancing to retreat” is to calm things down in the city and focus its energies instead on other pressing matters, such as the Sino-U.S. trade war and the 2020 Taiwan presidential election.
◎ If the CCP has identified that Trump will do anything to get his trade deal, they will definitely call his bluff and turn the trade deal into his greatest weakness.
◎ Trump’s ambiguous messaging on the Hong Kong issue will embolden the CCP to keep pushing the limits in suppressing the protesters.
◎ The PRC and the U.S. have unwittingly stumbled into battle with the CCP devaluing the RMB and the U.S. declaring China a currency manipulator.
◎ How the U.S. and the world respond to the PRC’s statements and actions concerning Hong Kong over the coming days and weeks would determine whether or not the world sees another Tiananmen-style incident.
◎ We believe that the CCP is suspecting that the U.S. has decided to use the Falun Gong issue against the PRC.
◎ The CCP is especially vulnerable to attacks on its human rights record.
◎ We offer seven points of response to an open letter on U.S. policy on China by a hundred U.S. scholars, former diplomats and military officials, and business leaders.
◎ The Trump-Kim DMZ meeting somewhat cancels out China’s diplomatic effort in Pyongyang before the G20 summit in Osaka.