RESEARCH
Geopolitics Watch: Xi Summoning Kim to Beijing a Goodwill Gesture to America
◎ Xi could have summoned Kim to Beijing to signal cooperation with America on North Korean denuclearization and improve the odds of successful trade talks.
Politics Watch: CCP Fourth Plenum Could be Held at the End of January
◎ The sudden rescheduling of important provincial “Two Sessions” meetings suggests that the provincial-level officials have an even more important meeting to attend.
Year of Decision for Trump and Xi on Taiwan
◎ Of the many foreign policy challenges confronting President Trump in 2019, ensuring the democratic security of Taiwan may prove as daunting, and as dangerous, as resolving the North Korea nuclear crisis.
China 2019 Outlook: A Decisive Year for Sino-US Relations
◎ Presenting our 2019 China outlook.
How We Fared in Forecasting China in 2018 — Macro Mastery
◎ Part two of our 2018 forecasting review.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Reform Anniversary Speech Signals Political Crisis in China
◎ We believe that Xi Jinping presently faces critical levels of political risk given the political and economic problems in the regime.
How We Fared in Forecasting China in 2018 — Our 2018 Outlook
◎ Part one of our 2018 forecasting review.
No ‘Middle Way’ in US-China Struggle — China Must Change
◎ From its establishment, Communist China has been committed to the destruction or the drastic reconstruction of the global order
Geopolitics Watch: Why Trump Cited National Security as a Reason to Intervene in the Huawei Case
◎ The 90-day trade talks, if successful, will tackle U.S. national security concerns at its root.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Delivery of Trade Commitments Hinges on the CCP Factional Struggle
◎ Xi faces very high levels of political risk in the next 90 days.
Geopolitics Watch: Did Trump or Xi Win at the G20?
◎ Xi was likely seeking a pause going into the G20. The concessions which he made to gain the pause suggests a “pyrrhic victory.”
Influence Watch: The CCP is Hijacking the Discourse on Chinese Influence
◎ We identify three broad strategic lines which the CCP is pursuing to hijack the discourse on Chinese influence.
In the New China-US Cold War, Will Xi or Trump Blink First?
◎ Pence’s message to Beijing was firm and clear: “The United States … will not change course until China changes its ways.”
Risk Watch: Rising Business Failure and Unemployment Heighten Political Risk in China
◎ The CCP’s claim that migrants workers are returning home to partake in “entrepreneurship” is likely an attempt to put a positive spin on rising unemployment.
Geopolitics Watch: The CCP Turns to the Red Matrix in Full Court Press Against Trump
◎ Using the Red Matrix aggressively is a double-edged sword for the CCP when the U.S. is on high-alert for CCP influence and interference operations.