RESEARCH
Politics Watch: Early Analysis of the CCP Fourth Plenum
◎ The outcome of the Fourth Plenum suggests that it unfolded as we previously analyzed.
To Cope with China, Don’t Follow the Money — Follow the Czechs
◎ There are things the Czechs themselves still can do to teach China that it doesn’t hold all the cards.
Geopolitics Watch: Pompeo’s ‘China Challenge’ Speech Hints at the Future of Sino-US Relations
◎ Secretary Pompeo’s speech affirms several trends in U.S. policy toward the PRC which we have identified since July 2018.
Trump’s Demand for Reciprocity with China Can Win ‘Cold War II’
◎ A revived and vigorous Western information campaign would achieve a measure of informational reciprocity, exploit Chinese Communist vulnerability, and avoid a disastrous shooting war.
Geopolitics Watch: Early Analysis of Pence’s Second China Speech, the Trade War, and Hong Kong
◎ Mike Pence generally adopted a more conciliatory tone towards China in his Wilson Center speech as compared with his fiery, hard-hitting Hudson Institute speech in October 2018.
Geopolitics Watch: Why a Trade ‘Mini-deal’ Won’t Change China-US Collision Course
◎ We look at some key factors that would make or break trade negotiations between America and China.
Politics Watch: How the CCP is Nullifying the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act
◎ When faced with popular uprisings or protests, the CCP typically resorts to the seemingly counterintuitive move of inciting the demonstrators or an entire population to violence.
After Syria Debacle, US Needs to Recommit to Indo-Pacific
◎ After the tragic Syria mistake, Washington cannot afford strategic ambiguity on Taiwan or any other place in Asia that is threatened by China or North Korea.
Politics Watch: Exposé of CCP Elite Before Delayed Fourth Plenum Hints at Three-way Struggle
◎ CCP factional struggles are “you die, I live” and revolve around the preservation of interests and political legacies.
Risk Watch: The CCP’s Strategic Intentions Behind the Hong Kong Exchange’s Bid for the London Exchange
◎ We have reason to suspect that the CCP has strategic intentions behind the HKEX move for the LSE.
Geopolitics Watch: Early Analysis of the Sino-US ‘Mini-deal’
◎ The Trump administration is complementing the CCP’s delaying tactics with a “phase-by-phase” approach to a trade deal, and is falling into the CCP’s trap.
Risk Watch: The NBA, South Park, and the Ideological Turn in Sino-US Relations
◎ Within the span of a week, art imitated life and life imitated art regarding CCP censorship.
Politics Watch: Signs of Political Compromise and Crisis Surface as the PRC Marks its 70th Anniversary
◎ Why did Xi Jinping honor both Mao Zedong and a prominent Mao critic as part of the PRC’s 70th anniversary celebrations? We examine this and other signs.
Risk Watch: What the Police Shooting of a Protester Means for Hong Kong
◎ A Black Swan event for the Chinese regime could be just around the corner.
Risk Watch: The CCP Executes a ‘Judo Move’ to Shut Down Protests in Hong Kong
◎ We have identified four tactics which the CCP is utilizing to carry out its “judo move.”