RESEARCH
Geopolitics Watch: Will the Latest Round of Sino-US Trade Talks Lead to a Deal?
◎ We believe that there is a very good chance that China and the U.S. will get a trade agreement even as American tariffs go into effect.
Influence Watch: Why the CCP Fears an Ideological Battle and a ‘Clash of Civilizations’
◎ While the CCP has sought to equate itself with China, China and the Chinese regime are in fact two separate entities with opposing values.
Geopolitics Watch: Early Analysis of Trump’s Tariff Threat
◎ How the CCP reacts to Trump’s tariff threat would determine the outcome of the trade talks.
Politics Watch: Public Appearances by Party Elders Hint at Heightened Political Crisis in China
◎ Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong’s recent public appearance signals to the Jiang faction and allied interest groups that they still have clout in CCP elite politics.
Trump Must Rely on Human Rights Issue Against North Korea
◎ The Trump administration should continue to emphasize that North Korea’s nuclear program ultimately does not ensure regime survival but regime demise.
Geopolitics Watch: The CCP is Exploiting US Trade Talks to Further its Domination Agenda
◎ The CCP will likely try to drag out the trade negotiations, the implementation of the trade deal, and the enforcement mediation process to gain an advantage in the “new cold war.”
Risk Watch: The Crisis Behind China’s New Hukou Policy
◎ The hukou relaxation policy could prove to be a double-edged sword for the CCP.
None Too Soon, US Readies to Combat Beijing’s South China Sea Aggression
◎ As tensions rise in this new quasi-cold war period, the Coast Guard is edging closer to a continuing wartime relationship with the Navy.
On China and North Korea, Let Trump be Trump
◎ U.S. national security would benefit from Trump’s return to the core principles that guided his original instincts toward China and North Korea.
Save the Taiwan Relations Act, but Scrap Ambiguity: Defend Taiwan
◎ The China threat toward Taiwan has to be confronted at some point.
Risk Watch: China Economic Rebound? Major Shareholders Vote with Their Feet
◎China will find it hard to sustain the economic “recovery” in April. ◎Risks of a stock market crash are greater than before.
Geopolitics Watch: Europe Walks into the CCP’s ‘Concessions Trap’
◎ The CCP’s modus operandi ensures that the EU-China joint statement might as well be a blank sheet of paper.
Risk Watch: China Broadens Issuance of Local Government Bonds to Defer Crisis
◎ The CCP is putting its political credit on the line by making local bonds available over the counter.
China 2019 Outlook: How We Fared in Q1
On Dec. 31, 2018, we made 58 predictions on what might unfold in China in 2019. Our predictions covered seven categories: Politics, the economy, military, society, cross-Strait relations, Sino-U.S. relations, and China and the world. Based on our tally, 31 of our 58 predictions (53.44 percent) have been verified as
Trump Owes His ‘Friend’ Xi a Tough-love Message
◎ If Trump and Xi can make the tough decisions, they can avoid military confrontation that hardliners on both sides see as inevitable and even necessary.