Research

" I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels."

John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs

" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."

Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University

“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”

Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute

“SinoInsider has been one of my most useful (and enjoyable) resources”

James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist

Risk Watch: Early Analysis of China’s Government Work Report

◎ Several proposals in the 2019 government work report seemingly cancel out each other or will contradict Xi’s push to have the “Party lead everything”

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March 5, 2019

Politics Watch: Xi Faces Pushback from the Intelligence Apparatus

◎ There is a pattern in recent years of “explosive information” about CCP elites being revealed during crucial periods in the factional struggle.

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March 1, 2019

Geopolitics Watch: Early Analysis & Forecast on Extended Sino-US Trade Talks

◎ The CCP factional struggle will escalate as Xi tries to force through reforms to meet U.S. trade demands.

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February 27, 2019

A ‘5 Percent Monthly’ Plan to Denuclearize, Develop North Korea

◎ A proposed schedule of nuclear and missile dismantling would be part of a good-faith showing by Kim.

February 26, 2019

Risk Watch: Chinese Online Property ‘Unicorn’ Aiwujiwu Shuts Down

◎ The collapse of Aiwujiwu and pinganfang.com suggests that the business model of “property + financing + internet services” is failing in China.

February 23, 2019

Politics Watch: Shock Turn in ‘Shaanxi Case’ Suggests Escalation of Factional Struggle

◎ The CCP’s political and legal affairs apparatus continues to oppose the Xi leadership, and the factional struggle intensifies.

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February 22, 2019

Politics Watch: Sentencing of Fang Fenghui Portends Major Moves by Beijing, Hints at Regime Crisis

◎ The sentencing of Fang Fenghui at this time hints at three possible political developments.

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February 20, 2019

Geopolitics Watch: Xi Lays Groundwork for Trade Concessions in State Media

◎ The propaganda narratives in Xinhua lay the groundwork for Xi to agree to U.S. demands on sensitive issues like structural reform without losing face at home.

February 18, 2019

The End of Strategic Ambiguity on Taiwan?

◎ Is the United States government about to declare a clear and firm commitment to defend Taiwan?

February 13, 2019

Geopolitics Watch: Will China and America Reach a Real Trade Deal By March 1?

◎ Xi has pressing need to compromise, and Trump will not accept a “superficial” trade deal.

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February 12, 2019

Geopolitics Watch: US Strategic Advantages of Holding the Second Trump-Kim Meeting in Vietnam

◎ Manufacturers may eventually shift out of China to Vietnam and an economically liberalized North Korea.

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February 10, 2019

Post-shutdown, Trump Must Get Tough with Foreign Adversaries

◎ History has taught that an American president’s credibility on a major U.S. domestic issue can be transferable to tests of will in the international arena, for good or ill.

February 4, 2019

Geopolitics Watch: Sino-US Trade Enforcement and the ZTE ‘Probation’ Model

◎ America could have the ZTE model in mind in enforcing the trade deal.

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February 1, 2019

The 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis: Three What Ifs?

◎ There has been much talk about the recent comments of a Chinese military official issuing a dire warning against the United States resisting China’s aggression in the region.

January 30, 2019