What Trump’s Second Term Means for China
Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
OUR RESEARCH
Blinken’s China Trip Yields Little Improvement in Sino-US Relations
Despite appearances, Secretary Blinken’s visit to China has not done much to thaw Sino-U.S. relations or change its current dynamics.
Xi Tackles Regime Crises With Propaganda, Purges, and ‘Multilateralism’
Xi Jinping has turned to propaganda, purges, and a softened diplomatic approach to tackle the “various risks, challenges, and difficult problems” facing the regime.
Two Sessions Conclude With Xi More in Power But With Few Answers to China’s Crises
Xi has long consolidated power with an eye to sidelining factional rivals and improving Beijing’s “governing capacity” so as to better navigate the CCP regime out of crises.
China Outlook 2023: China at Historical Crossroads as Crises Surge
As crises come to a head, political risk levels for Xi and the CCP will rise exponentially in 2023.
Early Analysis of Jiang Zemin’s Death and Implications for CCP Factional Struggle
The Jiang faction could exploit Jiang Zemin’s death to undermine the Xi leadership by stirring up strong “anti-Xi, not anti-CCP” sentiments in China and overseas.
Analyzing Hu Jintao’s Early Exit From the 20th Party Congress Closing Ceremony
Hu almost certainly knew the result of the personnel reshuffle beforehand, and is unlikely to have suddenly found reason to be upset with Xi over the reshuffle.
How We Fared: Reviewing Our 20th Party Congress Forecast
We were able to forecast the 20th Party Congress leadership reshuffle with good accuracy without relying on insider sources using our unique political risk assessment model.
20th Party Congress Forecast: Five Scenarios for the Politburo and its Standing Committee
The report presents several possible personnel arrangements for the Politburo and its Standing Committee, as well as list personnel who could serve on the 20th Central Committee and Central Military Commission.
China’s Banking Trouble Points to Financial Contagion, Declining Economy
Bank trouble in China could in turn worsen social and economic instability in China to the detriment of Xi Jinping and the CCP.
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