◎ We believe that there is a very good chance that China and the U.S. will get a trade agreement even as American tariffs go into effect.
◎ While the CCP has sought to equate itself with China, China and the Chinese regime are in fact two separate entities with opposing values.
◎ How the CCP reacts to Trump’s tariff threat would determine the outcome of the trade talks.
◎ Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong’s recent public appearance signals to the Jiang faction and allied interest groups that they still have clout in CCP elite politics.
◎ The Trump administration should continue to emphasize that North Korea’s nuclear program ultimately does not ensure regime survival but regime demise.
◎ The CCP will likely try to drag out the trade negotiations, the implementation of the trade deal, and the enforcement mediation process to gain an advantage in the “new cold war.”
◎ The hukou relaxation policy could prove to be a double-edged sword for the CCP.
◎ As tensions rise in this new quasi-cold war period, the Coast Guard is edging closer to a continuing wartime relationship with the Navy.
◎ The China threat toward Taiwan has to be confronted at some point.
◎China will find it hard to sustain the economic “recovery” in April. ◎Risks of a stock market crash are greater than before.
◎ The CCP’s modus operandi ensures that the EU-China joint statement might as well be a blank sheet of paper.
◎ The CCP is putting its political credit on the line by making local bonds available over the counter.
On Dec. 31, 2018, we made 58 predictions on what might unfold in China in 2019. Our predictions covered seven categories: Politics, the economy, military, society, cross-Strait relations, Sino-U.S. relations, and China and the world. Based on our tally, 31 of our 58 predictions (53.44 percent) have been verified as