The CCP Politburo announced in a meeting on Aug. 30 that the 20th Party Congress will be held on Oct. 16, 2022. During the key political conclave, General Secretary Xi Jinping is generally expected to take a third term and reshuffle key personnel in his favor.
SinoInsider’s 20th Party Congress personnel reshuffle forecast report will look at what Xi wants from the 20th Party Congress, whether he is capable of achieving his objectives, and how the major personnel reshuffles could turn out depending on the degree of Xi’s political strength.
The report presents several possible personnel arrangements for the Politburo and its Standing Committee, as well as list personnel who could serve on the 20th Central Committee and Central Military Commission.
We previously forecasted the 19th Politburo Standing Committee with 100% accuracy (including ranking and portfolio) and the Politburo with 80% accuracy. We were also the first to predict after the 19th Party Congress that Wang Qishan would serve as PRC vice president.
Our other notable predictions and analyses include:
- Analyzed in 2018 that former public security vice minister Fu Zhenghua “still faces significant levels of political risk” despite being appointed as justice minister. Fu was purged in August 2021.
- Analyzed in January 2018 that a Sino-U.S. trade war was unavoidable.
- Predicted in our China 2019 outlook that contagious diseases could break out in China and that the PRC would first seek to cover up the situation.
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