China 2019 Outlook: A Decisive Year for Sino-US Relations

Edited on Jan. 1, 2019.  In our outlook for China in 2018, we said that a Sino-U.S. trade war is “unavoidable.” With the trade war well underway, an escalating factional struggle in the Chinese Communist Party, and the revolution in U.S. policy towards China, we believe that 2019 will see even more turbulence in China …

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How We Fared in Forecasting China in 2018 — Macro Mastery

To sidestep risk and succeed in China, businesses and policymakers need to get macro and geopolitical trends right. In 2018, SinoInsider correctly analyzed and anticipated several “big picture” trends and geopolitical developments concerning China in advance of the media, commentators, and other consultancies or think-tanks. While we initially appeared to miss some predictions, later events …

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How We Fared in Forecasting China in 2018 — Our 2018 Outlook

Imagine the risks you could avoid or the opportunities you could uncover from knowing that a Sino-U.S. trade war is “unavoidable” six months before tariffs were announced. Or how a January forecast that China’s economy will worsen over the year will affect your business decisions. SinoInsider called the above developments and more in our China …

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Geopolitics Watch: Why Trump Cited National Security as a Reason to Intervene in the Huawei Case

Summary: Most commentary on Trump raising the possibility of intervening in the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou is focused on the trade aspect. We argue that national security, and not trade, is likely the main motivation behind Trump’s intervention remark. The 90-day trade talks, if successful, will tackle U.S. national security concerns at its …

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Politics Watch: Xi’s Delivery of Trade Commitments Hinges on the CCP Factional Struggle

Summary: Xi Jinping “crossed the Rubicon” by backtracking from tough official rhetoric and making personal commitments to President Donald Trump in Argentina. To deliver on his commitments to Trump, Xi must resolve the CCP factional struggle, the chief factor blocking the implementation of Xi’s policies and the core problem in Chinese elite politics. Based on …

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Influence Watch: The CCP is Hijacking the Discourse on Chinese Influence

Summary The CCP is using the Red Matrix, United Front work, and other types of influence operations to “seize discourse power” on the topic of Chinese influence. We identify three broad strategic lines which the CCP is pursuing to hijack the discourse on Chinese influence: 1) Shut down discussion on Chinese influence by coercion or …

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Risk Watch: Rising Business Failure and Unemployment Heighten Political Risk in China

Summary: Recently released official data shows that China’s economy performed poorly across the board in October. Several key indicators hit new lows and fell below market expectations. Many Chinese businesses, including prominent firms, have failed since the start of 2018. The Chinese authorities claim that unemployment has been kept stable at about 4 percent. Non-government …

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Geopolitics Watch: The CCP Turns to the Red Matrix in Full Court Press Against Trump

Summary: The CCP is turning to its Red Matrix as part of a “full court press” against President Donald Trump before the G20 in Argentina. The CCP is also relying on its Red Matrix to maintain market confidence, as well as preserve political and social stability. The CCP is using the Red Matrix because it …

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Geopolitics Watch: Trump-Xi Meeting at G20 Won’t Curb US Pressure

Summary: Xi Jinping and Donald Trump likely find it to be in their interest to hold a summit at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires. The meeting will unlikely lead to a concrete deal to resolve the Sino-U.S. trade conflict. Xi will not be able to meet the Trump administration’s asks due to political and …

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Geopolitics Watch: Did the CCP’s ‘Gamble’ on the US Midterm Election Pay Off?

Summary We wrote in August that the CCP could be gambling that the U.S. midterm election results allow it to “avoid a consequential clash with America.” The CCP’s gamble may not work out. The midterm results should have little effect on influencing the Sino-U.S. trade war. Legislative gridlock may instead cause President Trump to focus …

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