Geopolitics Watch: Trump-Xi Meeting at G20 Won’t Curb US Pressure

Summary: Xi Jinping and Donald Trump likely find it to be in their interest to hold a summit at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires. The meeting will unlikely lead to a concrete deal to resolve the Sino-U.S. trade conflict. Xi will not be able to meet the Trump administration’s asks due to political and …

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Geopolitics Watch: Did the CCP’s ‘Gamble’ on the US Midterm Election Pay Off?

Summary We wrote in August that the CCP could be gambling that the U.S. midterm election results allow it to “avoid a consequential clash with America.” The CCP’s gamble may not work out. The midterm results should have little effect on influencing the Sino-U.S. trade war. Legislative gridlock may instead cause President Trump to focus …

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The World is Trapped in Red China’s Matrix

By Don Tse and Larry Ong Summary Chinese Communist Party has long carried out influence operations to survive and dominate. Decades of CCP influence activity has created a “Red Matrix,” or an informational environment that is pro-China and missing critical knowledge about the Party and its operations. The Soviet Iron Curtain served to “block out” …

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Politics Watch: Fang Fenghui’s Expulsion, Meng Hongwei’s Arrest, and the Factional ‘Soft Coup’

The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee announced the expulsion of former generals Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang from the Party on Oct. 16. Both generals, who previously sat on the Central Military Commission, were found guilty of corruption and will have their illicit proceeds confiscated. Fang’s case was handed over to prosecutors. State media criticized …

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Politics Watch: Meng Hongwei Purge Hints at ‘Soft Coup’ Against Xi

The sudden vanishing and investigation of Interpol chief Meng Hongwei has called renewed attention to the Chinese Communist Party’s pernicious behavior, human rights abuses, and political infighting. Based on our research and understanding of CCP elite politics, we believe that the unusual and abrupt purge of Meng is a sign of serious trouble in the …

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Geopolitics Watch: On Correctly Predicting Trends in China-US Relations

Heading into the final quarter of 2018, it has become clearer that “strategic competition” between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has moved up several notches. On the U.S. side, President Donald Trump called out the PRC’s attempt to interfere in the November midterm election, while Vice President Mike Pence laid …

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Geopolitics Watch: How the CCP Can Interfere in US Elections

United States President Donald Trump accused China of trying to meddle in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in his opening remarks at the 2018 United Nations Security Council session on Sept. 26. “Regrettably, we’ve found that China has been attempting to interfere in our upcoming 2018 election coming up in November against my administration. They …

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Geopolitics Watch: Is the PRC Isolating Taiwan, or is the PRC Being Isolated?

A sweep of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) moves against the Republic of China (ROC) this year suggests that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is stepping up efforts to isolate Taiwan. The United States’s shifting policy on China and Taiwan, however, indicates that it is the PRC, and not the ROC, that is at …

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Geopolitics Watch: The CCP Misreads America’s China Policy Revolution

The passing of the United States 2019 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) is a watershed moment in Sino-U.S. relations, and the clearest indication yet that America’s labeling of China as a “strategic competitor” instead of a “strategic partner” is not just a matter of semantics. Meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) latest propaganda suggests that …

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Risk Watch: China’s State-owned Enterprise Debt Financing ‘Ponzi Scheme’

On July 24, China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) released economic data for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for the first half of 2018. In the statement accompanying the data, the MoF declared that SOEs performed well in H1 2018, and that “both solvency and profitability had improved over the same period last year.” On July 27, China’s …

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