Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on telegram
Share on whatsapp
Share on linkedin
Share on print
Share on email

How We Correctly Predicted China’s 19th Congress

◎ We get China’s core issue.

Elite Chinese politics has long been regarded as a black box, and not without valid reason. Even the most seasoned China experts struggle with unreliable official data, a paucity of personal information on top officials, and the opaque operations of key Chinese Communist Party (CCP) organs (such as the various “leading small groups,” for instance).

Faced with the aforementioned constraints, we achieved the following results for our 19th Party Congress personnel movement forecast:

Here’s how we did it.

1. We get China’s core issue

All issues in China are downstream from elite Chinese politics. And the central theme of elite Chinese politics is the life-and-death struggle between Jiang Zemin’s faction and his successors Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping.

The Jiang faction has been very influential in the past two decades because its key members frequently occupied the CCP’s top offices, including the military, domestic security, and propaganda. They managed to reduce Hu to a puppet leader during his tenure (2003-2012) and made at least one assassination attempt on his person.

The Jiang faction also tried to assassinate Xi and his top ally Wang Qishan on several occasions and launched at least two failed coups against the Xi leadership. Unlike Hu, Xi managed to counter the Jiang’s faction by weeding out many of its leading members through his anti-corruption campaign and military reforms.

Understanding the core issue behind Jiang’s efforts to eliminate his immediate successor and the successor he designated is the crux to accurately decoding elite Chinese politics and unlocking China’s black box.

Our ability to predict personnel movement to a high degree of accuracy hinges on us getting the core issue in China today.

2. We have a tried-and-tested analytical method

Several media outlets produced lists of Politburo Standing Committee members during the 19th Congress period. Some of these lists turned out to be accurate. But virtually all of these lists were generated from insider leaks to the press. And none of the media outlets or think-tanks produced complete lists of Politburo, Central Military Commission, or Central Committee members.

In contrast, we made our predictions mainly before the 19th Congress and issued updates after new developments unfolded during the Congress period. The final results, however, did not deviate from earliest scenarios we outlined. Furthermore, we were able to come up with complete lists of Politburo, Central Military Commission, and Central Committee members.

We were able to provide such comprehensive and accurate analysis because our senior analysts ascertained China’s core issue through closely monitoring the decade-long Hu-Jiang clash, and Xi’s tussle with the Jiang faction since 2012. We then developed a unique analytical methodology centered on rigorous data analysis and cross-checking with insider sources.

Our high scores for the 25-member Politburo and the 204-member Central Committee validates our unique analytical method. In particular, figuring out the Central Committee membership is no less crucial than discerning those at the very top; more than half of the Central Committee members are the senior provincial-level officials that implement policies from Party central and deal directly with businesses and investors.

Contact us to learn how the 19th Congress results may affect your business over the next 5 to 10 years.

Search past entries by date
“The breadth of SinoInsider’s insights—from economics through the military to governance, all underpinned by unparalleled reporting on the people in charge—is stunning. In my over fifty years of in-depth reading on the PRC, unclassified and classified, SinoInsider is in a class all by itself.”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Unique insights are available frequently from the reports of Sinoinsider.”
Michael Pillsbury, Senior Fellow for China Strategy, The Heritage Foundation
“Thank you for your information and analysis. Very useful.”
Prof. Ravni Thakur, University of Delhi, India
“SinoInsider’s research has helped me with investing in or getting out of Chinese companies.”
Charles Nelson, Managing Director, Murdock Capital Partners
“I value SinoInsider because of its always brilliant articles touching on, to name just a few, CCP history, current trends, and factional politics. Its concise and incisive analysis — absent the cliches that dominate China policy discussions in DC and U.S. corporate boardrooms — also represents a major contribution to the history of our era by clearly defining the threat the CCP poses to American peace and prosperity and global stability. I am grateful to SinoInsider — long may it thrive!”
Lee Smith, Author and journalist
“Your publication insights tremendously help us complete our regular analysis on in-depth issues of major importance. ”
Ms. Nicoleta Buracinschi, Embassy of Romania to the People’s Republic of China
"I’m a very happy, satisfied subscriber to your service and all the deep information it provides to increase our understanding. SinoInsider is profoundly helping to alter the public landscape when it comes to the PRC."
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Prof. Ming’s information about the Sino-U.S. trade war is invaluable for us in Taiwan’s technology industry. Our company basically acted on Prof. Ming’s predictions and enlarged our scale and enriched our product lines. That allowed us to deal capably with larger orders from China in 2019. ”
Mr. Chiu, Realtek R&D Center
“I am following China’s growing involvement in the Middle East, seeking to gain a better understanding of China itself and the impact of domestic constraints on its foreign policy. I have found SinoInsider quite helpful in expanding my knowledge and enriching my understanding of the issues at stake.”
Ehud Yaari, Lafer International Fellow, The Washington Institute
“SinoInsider’s research on the CCP examines every detail in great depth and is a very valuable reference. Foreign researchers will find SinoInsider’s research helpful in understanding what is really going on with the CCP and China. ”
Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
“The forecasts of Prof. Chu-cheng Ming and the SinoInsider team are an invaluable resource in guiding our news reporting direction and anticipating the next moves of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.”
Chan Miu-ling, Radio Television Hong Kong China Team Deputy Leader
“SinoInsider always publishes interesting and provocative work on Chinese elite politics. It is very worthwhile to follow the work of SinoInsider to get their take on factional struggles in particular.”
Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
“[SinoInsider has] been very useful in my class on American foreign policy because it contradicts the widely accepted argument that the U.S. should work cooperatively with China. And the whole point of the course is to expose students to conflicting approaches to contemporary major problems.”
Roy Licklider, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
“As a China-based journalist, SinoInsider is to me a very reliable source of information to understand deeply how the CCP works and learn more about the factional struggle and challenges that Xi Jinping may face. ”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“SinoInsider offers an interesting perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade war and North Korea. Their predictions are often accurate, which is definitely very helpful.”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels.”
John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
“My teaching at Cambridge and policy analysis for the UK audience have been informed by insights from your analyzes. ”
Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."
Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University
“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”
Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute
“SinoInsider has been one of my most useful (and enjoyable) resources”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Professor Ming and his team’s analyses of current affairs are very far-sighted and directionally accurate. In the present media environment where it is harder to distinguish between real and fake information, SinoInsider’s professional perspectives are much needed to make sense of a perilous and unpredictable world. ”
Liu Cheng-chuan, Professor Emeritus, National Chiayi University