Politics Watch: Xi Consolidates Control Over Spy Apparatus with Local Gov’t Reforms

Provincial governments in China have been recently announcing that the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee has approved their plans for institutional reform. According to the plans that have been released, jurisdiction over provincial, county, and city national security agencies have been transferred from local governments to the National Security Commission (NSC) members in local Party …

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Politics Watch: Peking University’s New Party Secretary is on ‘Work Probation’

On Oct. 23, Peking University appointed Qiu Shuiping as its new Party secretary. Qiu was formerly the chief justice of the high court in Shanxi Province, and previously served for a year as Party secretary of the Beijing bureau of the Ministry of State Security. Because of Qiu’s intelligence background, some observers believe that his …

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Politics Watch: Decoding Xi’s ‘Subdued’ Southern Tour

Xi Jinping went on an inspection tour in Guangdong from Oct. 22 to Oct. 25. At each stop, he signaled strongly that China should continue to reform and open up. On the last day of his trip, Xi visited the Southern Theater Command headquarters in Guangzhou. Observers have noted that mainland media was oddly quiet …

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The CCP Fourth Plenum and Geopolitics

The Chinese Communist Party traditionally holds the plenary session (an important all-hands meeting of the Central Committee) after the annual Two Sessions political conclave around the September to November period. Usually, the plenums are announced weeks or even months ahead of their convening. Oddly, the CCP has not yet announced anything on the Fourth Plenum …

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The World is Trapped in Red China’s Matrix

By Don Tse and Larry Ong Summary Chinese Communist Party has long carried out influence operations to survive and dominate. Decades of CCP influence activity has created a “Red Matrix,” or an informational environment that is pro-China and missing critical knowledge about the Party and its operations. The Soviet Iron Curtain served to “block out” …

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Politics Watch: Fang Fenghui’s Expulsion, Meng Hongwei’s Arrest, and the Factional ‘Soft Coup’

The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee announced the expulsion of former generals Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang from the Party on Oct. 16. Both generals, who previously sat on the Central Military Commission, were found guilty of corruption and will have their illicit proceeds confiscated. Fang’s case was handed over to prosecutors. State media criticized …

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Politics Watch: Meng Hongwei Purge Hints at ‘Soft Coup’ Against Xi

The sudden vanishing and investigation of Interpol chief Meng Hongwei has called renewed attention to the Chinese Communist Party’s pernicious behavior, human rights abuses, and political infighting. Based on our research and understanding of CCP elite politics, we believe that the unusual and abrupt purge of Meng is a sign of serious trouble in the …

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Risk Watch: China’s Social Security and Taxation Changes Could Spark Wave of Business Failure and Unemployment

The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPCSC) revised China’s tax law on Aug. 31. At a glance, the revision seemed to be helpful. Individual taxpayers saw their annual tax-free threshold raised from 3,500 yuan per month to 5,000 yuan per month (60,000 yuan per year). However, in an overhaul of its income tax …

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Politics Watch: Stricter Controls Over Society Signal Greater Crisis for the CCP

Since the outbreak of the Sino-U.S. trade war in July, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been controlling Chinese society with ever-increasing strictness. The CCP’s clamp down on religion and freedom of speech have been particularly severe, and it seems to be “maintaining stability” as though it is beleaguered. Based on our research and understanding …

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Risk Watch: What China’s Fx Reserves Looks Like Without a Trade Surplus with America

According to People’s Bank of China (PBoC) data released on Aug. 15, China’s foreign exchange balance at the end of July was 21.53 trillion yuan ($3.130 trillion). The reserves rose by 10.81 billion yuan, the seventh straight month of increases. Earlier in the month, the PBoC announced that China’s foreign exchange reserves in July amounted …

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