20th Party Congress Personnel
Reshuffle Forecast

Our “Normal General Secretary Version 1” forecast list correctly identified five of the seven (71 percent) Politburo Standing Committee members, 16 of the 24 members (68 percent) of the Politburo, and 160 out of 205 members (78 percent) of the Central Committee.

The report covers

  • What Xi Jinping wants to achieve politically at the 20th Party Congress.
  • A brief assessment of whether Xi can attain his political objectives.
  • Our forecast of personnel arrangements for the Politburo Standing Committee, Politburo, Central Military Commission, and 20th Central Committee.

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