On Sept. 19, we published our 20th Party Congress personnel reshuffle forecast. Our forecasting was based on publicly available information at the time and without consulting insider sources.
The new CCP leadership for Xi Jinping’s third term was unveiled at the conclusion of the 20th Party Congress on Oct. 23.
The following officials made the Politburo and its Standing Committee of the 20th Central Committee:
- CCP General Secretary: Xi Jinping
- 7-member Politburo Standing Committee (order by rank): Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, Li Xi
- 24-member Politburo and its Standing Committee (order by strokes of surnames in simplified Chinese): Ding Xuexiang, Xi Jinping, Ma Xingrui, Wang Yi, Wang Huning, Yin Li, Shi Taifeng, Liu Guozhong, Li Xi, Li Qiang, Li Ganjie, Li Shulei, Li Hongzhong, He Weidong, He Lifeng, Zhang Youxia, Zhang Guoqing, Chen Wenqing, Chen Jining, Chen Miner, Zhao Leji, Yuan Jiajun, Huang Kunming, Cai Qi
Our “Normal General Secretary Version 1” forecast list correctly identified five of the seven (71 percent) Politburo Standing Committee members, 16 of the 24 members (68 percent) of the Politburo, and 160 out of 205 members (78 percent) of the Central Committee.
We were able to forecast the 20th Party Congress leadership reshuffle with good accuracy without relying on insider sources using our unique political risk assessment model, which takes into account CCP characteristics, operations, and factional struggle. Accounting for the three aforementioned factors was crucial in helping us get a better sense of Xi’s political strength and limitations, which influenced how he selected the new leadership of the CCP and our predictions.
To have a better handle on the present political situation in China and China’s future direction, businesses, investors, scholars, journalists, and governments must closely track developments in CCP elite politics and understand how the Party operates to figure out political risks in China, produce more complete analysis about the CCP regime, and make better decisions.
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