RESEARCH
Risk Watch: China Economic Rebound? Major Shareholders Vote with Their Feet
◎China will find it hard to sustain the economic “recovery” in April. ◎Risks of a stock market crash are greater than before.
Geopolitics Watch: Europe Walks into the CCP’s ‘Concessions Trap’
◎ The CCP’s modus operandi ensures that the EU-China joint statement might as well be a blank sheet of paper.
Risk Watch: China Broadens Issuance of Local Government Bonds to Defer Crisis
◎ The CCP is putting its political credit on the line by making local bonds available over the counter.
China 2019 Outlook: How We Fared in Q1
On Dec. 31, 2018, we made 58 predictions on what might unfold in China in 2019. Our predictions covered seven categories: Politics, the economy, military, society, cross-Strait relations, Sino-U.S. relations, and China and the world. Based on our tally, 31 of our 58 predictions (53.44 percent) have been verified as
Trump Owes His ‘Friend’ Xi a Tough-love Message
◎ If Trump and Xi can make the tough decisions, they can avoid military confrontation that hardliners on both sides see as inevitable and even necessary.
Geopolitics Watch: China Prepares to Sign ‘Unequal Treaty,’ Continues Delaying Tactics in Trade War
◎ The CCP’s trade war strategy is revealed in its propaganda. Meanwhile, America struggles with the Party’s delaying tactic.
Politics Watch: A Black Swan Leading Indicator Emerges from Xi’s Italy Trip
◎ In Italy, Xi signals strong determination to push through reforms.
It’s Time for China to Become a Normal Country
◎ Moral, political and diplomatic pressure on human rights will go a long way toward encouraging the emergence of the normal China the world and the Chinese people long have been promised.
Geopolitics Watch: Xi’s Europe Trip, the Sino-US Trade War, & Global Geopolitics
◎ The stalemate in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations has led to a stalemate in global geopolitics.
Time for a Trump-Tsai Conversation: The Two Presidents Have Much to Discuss
◎ Given significant developments across the Taiwan Strait over the ensuing two years, it is time for a more substantive conversation between the two democratic presidents.
Geopolitics Watch: N. Korea Denuke ‘Stalemate’ and the Sino-US Trade War
◎ Any “backsliding” by North Korea at this stage would be counterproductive for Kim Jong Un as it would likely cause the U.S. to redouble its focus on resolving trade with China.
Politics Watch: More Signs Point to Escalation in the CCP Factional Struggle
◎ Gu Zhuoheng’s tweets and Cui Yongyuan’s “reappearance” appear to connect a trail of breadcrumbs which point to an intensification of the CCP factional struggle.
Risk Watch: The Chinese Stock Market Plunge and Factional Politics
◎ The timing of the plunge and other odd developments suggest that CCP factional politics could be a factor influencing the recent sell-offs.
Politics Watch: A Black Swan Leading Indicator Surfaces at the Two Sessions
◎ The spotlighting of qigong at the Two Sessions is connected with the “you die, I live” factional struggle in the CCP.
Hanoi Summit Failure? Not Quite — Kim Now Owes Trump Big Time
◎ How did the failure to secure a declaration of all North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities, let alone a specific commitment to destroy them, somehow move the ball forward?