RESEARCH
One China (unreformed), Two Henrys (unrepentant)
◎ What distinguishes the Trump administration from its predecessors is the recognition that decades of U.S. engagement with China have utterly failed.
Politics Watch: How Beijing Could Respond to the Human Rights Day Rally in Hong Kong
◎ Just because the organizers of the Human Rights Day rally have permission to go ahead with it does not mean that the event will be free from controversy.
Geopolitics Watch: Passing of Hong Kong Act Sinks the CCP Deeper into the Hong Kong Quagmire
◎ While the CCP has sought to extricate itself from the Hong Kong quagmire, its measures have thus far only caused it to sink in deeper.
Politics Watch: Arrest of Defecting Chinese Spy’s Boss Raises Risks for the CCP Regime
◎ If Xiang Xin is indeed a PRC military intelligence officer, then the implications of his being held in custody in Taiwan are potentially far-reaching and disastrous for the CCP regime.
Trump’s Monumental Decision on Hong Kong
◎ The course of action Trump chooses will have broad implications for the future of U.S.-China relations, and for the security and confidence of Taiwan.
Politics Watch: Defecting Chinese Spy Disrupts the CCP’s Political Interference Operations
◎ Wang Liqiang’s exposing of the CCP’s plans to interfere in the 2020 Taiwan presidential election will likely have a huge impact on the election.
Politics Watch: Mounting Political Risks Leave Xi, CCP Vulnerable to Regime-threatening Black Swans
◎ The external and domestic risks facing the CCP and Xi Jinping are coming to a head.
Trump Must Regain His Advantage Over Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un
◎ Whatever else happens in and to his presidency, a historic positive legacy awaits Trump if he re-grasps the opportunity he alone created.
Politics Watch: ‘Xinjiang Papers’ Another Confirmation of Political Crisis in the CCP
◎ While it is easy to focus on the human rights aspect of the Xinjiang Papers, observers should be aware of its larger and more consequential political implications.
Human Rights: Help or Hindrance to Toppling Dictators?
◎ Trump’s demands for structural economic change in China, if actually implemented by Beijing, could finally bring accompanying political reforms.
Emergency Warning: Multiple Signs Point to Imminent, Hardline Crackdown in Hong Kong
◎ Various signs indicate that the Hong Kong government could go ahead with a large-scale crackdown on the anti-extradition bill protests.
Risk Watch: A Watershed Moment Nears as the Hong Kong Situation Deteriorates
◎ The CCP, the Hong Kong government, and the Hong Kong police are “pouring oil on fire” by ramping up violent tactics and disinformation operations to suppress the Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests.
Geopolitics Watch: What a ‘Rollback’ of Tariffs Means for the Sino-US Trade Deal
◎ A closer examination of recent developments suggests dim prospects for the “phase one” trade deal and future Sino-U.S. trade agreements.
The US Must Support the Chinese People Against the Chinese Communists
◎ The Trump administration should exploit communist China’s greatest vulnerability.
Politics Watch: Shifting Trends in Hong Kong Post-Fourth Plenum
◎ Based on our observation, the CCP is again preparing to shift strategies in Hong Kong as it pursues short, medium, and long-term agendas.