RESEARCH
Politics Watch: Why the Chinese Ambassador to Britain is Rejecting Beijing’s Role in the Hong Kong Extradition Law
◎ Hong Kong’s chief executive and pro-Beijing lawmakers will likely try to determine Party central’s intention from Liu Xiaoming’s remarks and act accordingly.
Politics Watch: How the CCP Factional Struggle Could Trigger a Tiananmen-like Event in Hong Kong
◎ The present situation in Hong Kong is ripe for Xi’s political rivals to exploit and shift the balance of the struggle.
Politics Watch: The Hong Kong Extradition Law and the CCP Factional Struggle
◎ Xi’s political rivals are “weaponizing” Party orthodoxy against the Xi camp in Hong Kong affairs.
Geopolitics Watch: How the Trump-Xi G20 Meeting Could Affect Sino-US Relations in the Second Half of 2019
◎ Both President Trump and Xi Jinping have signaled strongly that they want to meet each other at the G20 in Osaka.
Is China About to Give America a ‘Bloody Nose’?
◎ The real challenge will be America’s response to China’s first-level retaliation, and whether Washington is prepared to move up the escalatory ladder.
Risk Watch: How the CCP Could Do a ‘Pearl Harbor’ to Survive the ‘New Cold War’
◎ The CCP could use conventional and “unrestricted warfare” strategies and tactics against the United States.
Geopolitics Watch: Escalation in US Policy on China Endangers the CCP
◎ The Trump administration has moved to challenge the regime on Huawei, human rights and Taiwan, as well as strengthen alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.
Henry Kissinger is Still Brilliant — and Still Wrong About China
◎ The Trump administration is confronting China multidimensionally — on trade, Taiwan, the South China Sea and North Korea — as no predecessor ever did.
Risk Watch: US Huawei Ban Could Trigger Black Swans in China
◎ Ren Zhengfei’s alternating rhetoric reveals that Huawei is at its “wit’s end.”
Geopolitics Watch: Will the Huawei Ban Bring China Back to the Negotiation Table?
◎ The CCP will find it very hard to return to negotiations in the current geopolitical climate.
Politics Watch: The Multiple Political Signals in Xi’s Jiangxi Tour
◎ Several political signals in Xi’s inspection trip to Jiangxi are meant for different groups within the Party.
Politics Watch: Probe of Liu Shiyu Sharply Raises Xi’s Political Risks
◎ The investigation of Liu Shiyu comes after an escalation in the Sino-U.S. trade war in early May and a worsening of bilateral relations.
America’s Struggle with China and North Korea is for Keeps
◎ Existential struggles are not conducive to compromise, especially when the opposing sides see the competition in those stark terms.
Politics Watch: US Tariffs Heighten Political Dilemmas in China
◎ Beijing’s response to the trade war is shaped by the complexities of the CCP factional struggle.
Why We Predicted in January that America Would Raise Tariffs
◎ China is headed for tremendous change and political Black Swan events are on the horizon.