RESEARCH
Geopolitics Watch: Will China and America Reach a Real Trade Deal By March 1?
◎ Xi has pressing need to compromise, and Trump will not accept a “superficial” trade deal.
Geopolitics Watch: US Strategic Advantages of Holding the Second Trump-Kim Meeting in Vietnam
◎ Manufacturers may eventually shift out of China to Vietnam and an economically liberalized North Korea.
Post-shutdown, Trump Must Get Tough with Foreign Adversaries
◎ History has taught that an American president’s credibility on a major U.S. domestic issue can be transferable to tests of will in the international arena, for good or ill.
Geopolitics Watch: Sino-US Trade Enforcement and the ZTE ‘Probation’ Model
◎ America could have the ZTE model in mind in enforcing the trade deal.
The 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis: Three What Ifs?
◎ There has been much talk about the recent comments of a Chinese military official issuing a dire warning against the United States resisting China’s aggression in the region.
Politics Watch: Guangdong Public Security Chief Says ‘Political Risk’ a Major Focus of 2019
◎ The remarks of Li Chunsheng are a further sign that the CCP is feeling the pressure from rising social tensions.
Politics Watch: Former Securities Regulator’s Move to Rural Supply Cooperative a Further Sign of Regime Crisis
◎ Liu Shiyu’s transfer to the CCP’s rural supply cooperative is more than just a “demotion.”
Politics Watch: Politburo Meeting and Study Session Reveal Regime Crisis
◎ Xi is likely seeking to stamp his paramount authority and unify the Party as political, economic, and social crises mount in China.
Risk Watch: Campaign to Curb P2Ps Heightens Political Risk for the CCP
◎ The CCP’s P2P campaign will increase risks for China’s financial system.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Meeting with Provincial-level Officials Hints at Unprecedented Crisis in the CCP
◎ The CCP regime is facing an immense, and likely unprecedented, political crisis.
Risk Watch: Crashing China Property Stocks in Hong Kong Forebode Bubble Crisis
◎ Mainland property developers will likely face severe financing problems in 2019.
Risk Watch: Call for PBoC to Buy A-shares Comes as Confidence in Stock Markets Fall
◎ Major shareholders in China could be thinking of or taking steps to dump newly unrestricted shares in the wake of a worsening economy and slumping market confidence.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Call to Build ‘High-quality Officials’ Signals a Fresh Round of Purges
◎ A recent Qiushi article seems to be aimed at countering threats to Xi’s rule inside the Party.
Time Running Out to Stop China’s New cold-war Aggressions
◎ The United States and other countries in the West no longer can avoid joining the cold war that China has been waging unilaterally for the entire 40-year period of engagement.
Politics Watch: Decoding the Convening of Enlarged Military Meetings
◎ Xi is likely seeking to strengthen his control over the military in a crucial period.