recommended
Risk Watch: China’s State-owned Enterprise Debt Financing ‘Ponzi Scheme’
◎ SOEs cannot pay interest on their financing liabilities even if they are granted very favorable interest rates, let alone pay principle.
Geopolitics Watch: With EU Deal, Trump Advances Another Step in Reshaping CCP-Hijacked World Order
◎ The new U.S.-EU trade agreement, while still being finalized, would likely come to be seen as a watershed in Trump’s effort to rebuild the global order.
Politics Watch: US-China Trade War a ‘Deathtrap’ for CCP Politics
◎ The trade war forces Xi and the CCP to face an intractable political contradiction.
Risk Watch: China’s Local Debt ‘Iceberg’ Emits ‘Cracking Sounds’
◎ Based on our estimate, implicit debt in some cities and counties was three to four times higher that of their public debt.
Social Watch: In China, the CCP is Losing Control Over the Trade War Narrative
◎ The Sino-U.S. trade war is proving to be a quagmire for the CCP propaganda apparatus.
Risk Watch: Does China Have Ammo for a Trade War?
◎ The Sino-U.S. trade war is underway. And China lacks “ammunition.”
Geopolitics Watch: Korean Peninsula Denuke and Peace Could Hinge on US-North Korea Trust
◎ The timing and tempo of the U.S. strategies is vital to ensure mission success.
The Rise and Fall of China’s Domestic Security and Legal Affairs Apparatus
◎ Xi’s policies and personnel changes have combined to curb the PLAC’s authority and weaken its influence.
Geopolitics Watch: The Potentially Dire Implications of US Tariffs on China
◎ We examine the “worst-case scenario” of what the implementation of U.S. tariffs might mean for America, China, and North Korea.
Geopolitics Watch: Trump-Kim Summit Affirms Our Peace and Denuclearization Prediction
◎ We predicted in March after Kim met Xi in Beijing that North Korea would denuclearize and a peace treaty to end the Korean war would be signed.
Geopolitics Watch: US Deal Puts ZTE on ‘Probation,’ Benefits US National Security
◎ The new ZTE deal could later be regarded as an important milestone by the U.S. in advancing national security interests in dealings with China.
Geopolitics Watch: In Canceling North Korea Summit, Trump Gets Two Birds With One Stone
◎ We believe that the Singapore summit could still be held in June.
Geopolitics Watch: Who Won the China-US Trade War?
◎ The U.S. is both winning the trade war with China and weakening the CCP regime.
The Deeper Implications of China’s Armed Police Reform
◎ The People’s Armed Police reforms lack the flash of Xi’s more eye-catching moves to consolidate control.
Can China Withstand a Trade War? An Analysis of Provincial Finances
◎ An examination of the financial state of Chinese provincial in 2017 suggests that China cannot withstand a trade war.