◎ We believe that Xi Jinping presently faces critical levels of political risk given the political and economic problems in the regime.
◎ Xi faces very high levels of political risk in the next 90 days.
◎ The CCP’s claim that migrants workers are returning home to partake in “entrepreneurship” is likely an attempt to put a positive spin on rising unemployment.
◎ Xi reformed the chain of command of local national security agencies to wrest control of the intelligence apparatus from political rivals and further weaken the Political and Legal Affairs Commission.
◎ Qiu Shuiping, former chief justice of the high court in Shanxi, was appointed Party secretary of Peking University.
◎ The “subdued” media coverage of Xi’s southern tour and his other gestures in Guangdong is closely connected to the CCP factional struggle.
◎ We believe that the expulsion of Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang from the CCP is connected with the recent purge of Interpol chief Meng Hongwei.
◎ There are hints that the Meng Hongwei case is connected with a “soft coup” against the Xi leadership.
Risk Watch: China’s Social Security and Taxation Changes Could Spark Wave of Business Failure and Unemployment
◎ The tax and social security reform will sharply increase the financial burden of Chinese firms.
◎ Based on our research and understanding of the CCP, the more tightly it controls society, the more it feels imperiled.
◎ China’s economy would be in a precarious position if U.S. tariffs completely eliminate the trade deficit.
◎ The CCP is putting on a show for the Chinese people with its retaliatory duties.
◎ The outbreak of the Sino-U.S. trade war has exposed the CCP’s fear that America would escalate their conflicts on the ideological front.