We believe that there is a very low probability of Xi Jinping having attempted to assassinate Li Keqiang, given their long-standing political alliance and the fact that as a political force, Li posed no threat to Xi.
◎ The current situation for Xi and the CCP is bleak in light of the “perfect storm” of domestic and foreign problems facing the regime.
◎ Factional fighting in the CCP elite will complicate the digital currency’s implementation.
◎ Speculation of a “Xi-Li split” has to be taken with a huge grain of salt in light of political realities and protocol in the CCP regime.
Politics Watch: Hong Kong’s NatSec Set Up Signals ‘Supra-authority’ Status of the CCP’s NatSec Commission
◎ Xi and the CCP can use the Hong Kong national security law for both offensive and defensive purposes.
◎ The Hong Kong national security law is a double-edged sword for Xi in the factional struggle and could serve as a catalyst for political Black Swans.
◎ We expect to see many of the forecasts made in our China 2020 outlook to be verified over the second half of the year.
◎ This article offers an overview of the challenges that the CCP regime currently faces, the strategies and solutions it could pursue to avoid regime crisis, and the policies that it could roll out at the Two Sessions.
◎ The following analysis was first published in the April 30 edition of our subscriber-only SinoWeekly Plus newsletter. Subscribe to SinoInsider to view past analyses in our newsletter archive.
◎ The following analysis was first published in the Feb. 20 edition of our subscriber-only SinoWeekly Plus newsletter. Subscribe to SinoInsider to view past analyses in our newsletter archive.