POLITICS
Politics Watch: CCP Fourth Plenum Could be Held at the End of January
◎ The sudden rescheduling of important provincial “Two Sessions” meetings suggests that the provincial-level officials have an even more important meeting to attend.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Reform Anniversary Speech Signals Political Crisis in China
◎ We believe that Xi Jinping presently faces critical levels of political risk given the political and economic problems in the regime.
Politics Watch: Xi’s Delivery of Trade Commitments Hinges on the CCP Factional Struggle
◎ Xi faces very high levels of political risk in the next 90 days.
Risk Watch: Rising Business Failure and Unemployment Heighten Political Risk in China
◎ The CCP’s claim that migrants workers are returning home to partake in “entrepreneurship” is likely an attempt to put a positive spin on rising unemployment.
Politics Watch: Xi Consolidates Control Over Spy Apparatus with Local Gov’t Reforms
◎ Xi reformed the chain of command of local national security agencies to wrest control of the intelligence apparatus from political rivals and further weaken the Political and Legal Affairs Commission.
Politics Watch: Peking University’s New Party Secretary is on ‘Work Probation’
◎ Qiu Shuiping, former chief justice of the high court in Shanxi, was appointed Party secretary of Peking University.
Politics Watch: Decoding Xi’s ‘Subdued’ Southern Tour
◎ The “subdued” media coverage of Xi’s southern tour and his other gestures in Guangdong is closely connected to the CCP factional struggle.
The CCP Fourth Plenum and Geopolitics
◎ The plenary session after the Two Sessions in the year after a Party Congress typically focuses on the economy.
The World is Trapped in Red China’s Matrix
◎ The Soviet Iron Curtain served to “block out” the West. The CCP’s Red Matrix works to “plug in” the world to a view of China that it controls.
Politics Watch: Fang Fenghui’s Expulsion, Meng Hongwei’s Arrest, and the Factional ‘Soft Coup’
◎ We believe that the expulsion of Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang from the CCP is connected with the recent purge of Interpol chief Meng Hongwei.
Politics Watch: Meng Hongwei Purge Hints at ‘Soft Coup’ Against Xi
◎ There are hints that the Meng Hongwei case is connected with a “soft coup” against the Xi leadership.
Risk Watch: China’s Social Security and Taxation Changes Could Spark Wave of Business Failure and Unemployment
◎ The tax and social security reform will sharply increase the financial burden of Chinese firms.
Politics Watch: Stricter Controls Over Society Signal Greater Crisis for the CCP
◎ Based on our research and understanding of the CCP, the more tightly it controls society, the more it feels imperiled.
Risk Watch: What China’s Fx Reserves Looks Like Without a Trade Surplus with America
◎ China’s economy would be in a precarious position if U.S. tariffs completely eliminate the trade deficit.
Politics Watch: China’s $60 Billion Tariff List Looks Like a ‘White Flag’
◎ The CCP is putting on a show for the Chinese people with its retaliatory duties.