A Black Swan leading indicator surfaces at the Two Sessions;local gov’ts dare not release raw economic data

SinoInsight 1 Beginning in 2018, the bulk of local statistics bureaus in China appeared to no longer publish raw economic data in various fields, including for fixed assets investment and industrial enterprises above designated size. For instance, the Shandong Provincial Bureau of Statistics did not release the original data on total retail sales of social …

Read moreA Black Swan leading indicator surfaces at the Two Sessions;local gov’ts dare not release raw economic data

To access this post, please log in.

Early analysis on China’s government work report; foreign capital leaves China’s ‘bull market’

SinoInsight 1 China’s A-shares rose for four consecutive days this week. Trading on the Shenzhen and Shanghai indexes broke the trillion-dollar mark for two consecutive days, with over 200 stocks reaching their daily trading limit. The Shanghai Composite Index broke above 3,100 points, a 3.75 percent increase over four days. Amid the “bull market” in …

Read moreEarly analysis on China’s government work report; foreign capital leaves China’s ‘bull market’

To access this post, please log in.

Xi faces pushback from the intelligence apparatus; heightened security at the Two Sessions reflects CCP insecurities

SinoInsight 1 There will be a strict “no cellphone” rule enforced at this year’s Two Sessions, according to reports in Hong Kong media. All members of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, as well as their entourage and staff, are forbidden from bringing their cellphones into meetings. Walkie-talkies are permitted …

Read moreXi faces pushback from the intelligence apparatus; heightened security at the Two Sessions reflects CCP insecurities

To access this post, please log in.

Early analysis & forecast on extended Sino-US trade talks; stability maintenance’ escalates to ‘wartime’ status

SinoInsight 1 Recently, an official notice from the local Political and Legal Affairs Commission of Fuyang City on “comprehensively mobilizing the wartime mechanism during the ‘Two Sessions’ period” was circulated on the Chinese internet. Located in Henan Province, Xingyang City is about over 700 kilometers away from Beijing. Noteworthy details in the notice include: The …

Read moreEarly analysis & forecast on extended Sino-US trade talks; stability maintenance’ escalates to ‘wartime’ status

To access this post, please log in.

Shock turn in ‘Shaanxi case’ suggests escalation of factional struggle; Politburo meeting hints at increased financial risks

SinoInsight 1 On Feb. 22, the Beijing-based Duowei News claimed that six Chinese generals were arrested in the wake of the official announcement of former CMC chief of joint staff Fang Fenghui’s life imprisonment sentence on Feb. 20. The six generals are Xu Linping (deputy commander of the Western Theater Command), He Qingcheng (deputy commander …

Read moreShock turn in ‘Shaanxi case’ suggests escalation of factional struggle; Politburo meeting hints at increased financial risks

To access this post, please log in.

Sentencing of Fang Fenghui portends major moves by Beijing; as China’s stock market rises, shareholders liquidate stocks

SinoInsight 1 With China’s stock markets rising (5.1 percent) after the Lunar New Year, Chinese securities analysts and commentators have been talking about “the beginnings of a bull market” and recommend the people put their money in stocks. Chinese shareholders, however, have been selling since the start of the year. According to data from Chinese …

Read moreSentencing of Fang Fenghui portends major moves by Beijing; as China’s stock market rises, shareholders liquidate stocks

To access this post, please log in.

Xi reins in political and legal affairs apparatus, military as trade deal deadline looms

SinoInsight 1 The fourth issue of the CCP ideological journal Qiushi this year (published Feb. 16) carried an article based on Xi Jinping’s speech on strengthening the Party’s leadership over law-based governance. Xi originally gave the speech on August 2018 at the first meeting of the Central Committee’s Commission for Comprehensive Law-based Governance. OUR TAKE …

Read moreXi reins in political and legal affairs apparatus, military as trade deal deadline looms

To access this post, please log in.

Will China and America reach a real trade deal by March 1; decoding the political messaging in Xinhua’s home page

SinoInsight 1 On Feb. 12, the leadership page of the CCP Central Committee United Front Work Department’s website was updated to reflect the appointment of Zou Xiaodong as UFWD deputy director. Zou, 52, was previously the Party secretary of Zhejiang University. OUR TAKE 1. Zou Xiaodong’s new appointment is the first instance of the CCP …

Read moreWill China and America reach a real trade deal by March 1; decoding the political messaging in Xinhua’s home page

To access this post, please log in.

Why the US picked Vietnam for the 2nd Trump-Kim summit;Cui Yongyuan targets the political and legal affairs apparatus

SinoInsight 1 On Feb. 9, the Supreme People’s Court and the Supreme People’s Procuratorate released a joint judicial notice on the illegal trading of foreign currencies. Underground bankers that are involved in trading sums exceeding 5 million yuan (about $741,000) or making trades that gain a profit of over 100,000 yuan will be charged with …

Read moreWhy the US picked Vietnam for the 2nd Trump-Kim summit;Cui Yongyuan targets the political and legal affairs apparatus

To access this post, please log in.

Sino-US trade enforcement and the ZTE ‘probation’ model;what S&P entering China entails

SinoInsight 1 On Jan. 28, the People’s Bank of China gave S&P Global Inc. approval to start offering credit-rating services in China via a wholly owned subsidiary based in Beijing. State media hailed the entry of S&P into the mainland credit rating market as an important part of the gradual opening up of China’s financial …

Read moreSino-US trade enforcement and the ZTE ‘probation’ model;what S&P entering China entails

To access this post, please log in.