SINOWEEKLYPLUS

Huawei faces US criminal investigation; why Trump hailed Kim as ‘very honorable’

SinoInsight 1
The United States Justice Department is investigating Huawei for violating U.S. sanctions related to Iran, according to an April 25 report by The Wall Street Journal.

OUR TAKE
1. The Huawei case, if confirmed, would be more serious than that facing ZTE. ZTE merely faces an exports ban imposed by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Huawei faces criminal penalties.

2. Huawei is effectively shut out from the U.S. as government regulators move to curb national security risks. A criminal investigation and prosecution would spell disaster for Huawei and China’s telecommunications industry. Should the criminal probe be confirmed, expect China’s 5G development to stagnate.

SinoInsight 2
According to China’s defense ministry, the Central Military Commission (CMC) is launching an inspection into the implementation of the “CMC chairman responsibility system.” Six inspection teams have been dispatched to various units to carry out the project, which will last from March to June.

OUR TAKE
1. The latest CMC inspections suggest that there are still anti-Xi Jinping elements in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Thus, Xi sees a need to continually supervise the troops and keep up the pressure to safeguard against coup risks.

2. Xi may have more fully consolidated his control over the PLA through his military modernization reforms, but clearing out Jiang faction loyalists would take some time. After all, the Jiang faction dominated the military and the Party for nearly two decades, and reduced Hu Jintao to a figurehead.

Xi has installed his loyalists to key military positions and promoted a new crop of generals, but these senior officials are still lacking in experience and may face difficulties in winning over the troops to support Xi. The purge of former PLA Chief of Joint Staff Fang Fenghui and former Political Work Department director Zhang Yang barely two months before the 19th Party Congress is a case in point.

SinoInsight 3
An attempt by the Chinese authorities to suppress a Peking University student’s call to investigate a 1998 rape and suicide case recently made waves in China.

Peking University authorities sought to silence student Yue Xin after she published a letter demanding full disclosure on the Gao Yan rape case. University authorities and CCP officials later convinced Yue’s parents to confine her at home. Yue’s plight inspired protests in several top Chinese universities.

Notably, supporters of Yue preserved an English translation of her letter, which was censored online, using cryptocurrency Ethereum’s blockchain. The use of blockchain technology to circumvent censorship is unprecedented in China. Yue’s supporters also posted “big character” posters in Peking University, invoking a famous gesture from earlier political movements.

According to Chinese reports, the Peking University’s Party committee views the incident as a form of student political campaign.

OUR TAKE
Peking University is the site of many historic student movements. Examples include the New Cultural Movement (1910s to 1920s), the May Fourth Movement (1919), the Cultural Revolution (the first “big character” posters appeared in Peking University), and the 1989 student protests that led to the Tiananmen Square massacre.

The Tiananmen anniversary is coming up in a little over a month. If the latest student protests continue, the CCP regime faces a potentially severe political risk.

Recommended articles

Beijing doubles down on security amid slowing economy
Beijing doubles down on security amid slowing economy
Ma Xingrui’s downfall and current dynamics in CCP elite politics
Ma Xingrui’s downfall and current dynamics in CCP elite politics
Xi’s CCP 105th anniversary speech and Beijing’s ambitions
Xi’s CCP 105th anniversary speech and Beijing’s ambitions
PRC’s 2025 audit report exposes various risks in the CCP regime; the 20-trillion-yuan energy bubble in the CCP’s 15th Five-Year Plan
PRC’s 2025 audit report exposes various risks in the CCP regime; the 20-trillion-yuan energy bubble in the CCP’s 15th Five-Year Plan
Beijing’s plan to stabilize foreign investment hints at heavy outflows; why PRC media is touting the ‘three major transformations’
Beijing’s plan to stabilize foreign investment hints at heavy outflows; why PRC media is touting the ‘three major transformations’
Analyzing Beijing’s white paper on global governance; why Beijing is rolling out ‘Xi Jinping Thought on Party building’
Analyzing Beijing’s white paper on global governance; why Beijing is rolling out ‘Xi Jinping Thought on Party building’
China’s May economic data hints at macroeconomic tipping point
China’s May economic data hints at macroeconomic tipping point
Why China’s exports stayed strong in May; Beijing targets retired financial officials
Why China’s exports stayed strong in May; Beijing targets retired financial officials
PBoC issues new interest rate policy; decoding China’s new private equity regulations
PBoC issues new interest rate policy; decoding China’s new private equity regulations
China’s infrastructure growth model losing effectiveness; Xi’s strategic intent behind visiting North Korea
China’s infrastructure growth model losing effectiveness; Xi’s strategic intent behind visiting North Korea
China 2025 Outlook Review
China 2025 Outlook Review
What a Qiushi piece on developing future industries says about Xi’s ambitions; the hidden liabilities of rapid industrial scaling in China’s NEV sector
What a Qiushi piece on developing future industries says about Xi’s ambitions; the hidden liabilities of rapid industrial scaling in China’s NEV sector

Testimonials

“The breadth of SinoInsider’s insights—from economics through the military to governance, all underpinned by unparalleled reporting on the people in charge—is stunning. In my over fifty years of in-depth reading on the PRC, unclassified and classified, SinoInsider is in a class all by itself.”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Unique insights are available frequently from the reports of Sinoinsider.”
Michael Pillsbury, Senior Fellow for China Strategy, The Heritage Foundation
“Thank you for your information and analysis. Very useful.”
Prof. Ravni Thakur, University of Delhi, India
“SinoInsider’s research has helped me with investing in or getting out of Chinese companies.”
Charles Nelson, Managing Director, Murdock Capital Partners
“I value SinoInsider because of its always brilliant articles touching on, to name just a few, CCP history, current trends, and factional politics. Its concise and incisive analysis — absent the cliches that dominate China policy discussions in DC and U.S. corporate boardrooms — also represents a major contribution to the history of our era by clearly defining the threat the CCP poses to American peace and prosperity and global stability. I am grateful to SinoInsider — long may it thrive!”
Lee Smith, Author and journalist
“Your publication insights tremendously help us complete our regular analysis on in-depth issues of major importance. ”
Ms. Nicoleta Buracinschi, Embassy of Romania to the People’s Republic of China
"I’m a very happy, satisfied subscriber to your service and all the deep information it provides to increase our understanding. SinoInsider is profoundly helping to alter the public landscape when it comes to the PRC."
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Prof. Ming’s information about the Sino-U.S. trade war is invaluable for us in Taiwan’s technology industry. Our company basically acted on Prof. Ming’s predictions and enlarged our scale and enriched our product lines. That allowed us to deal capably with larger orders from China in 2019. ”
Mr. Chiu, Realtek R&D Center
“I am following China’s growing involvement in the Middle East, seeking to gain a better understanding of China itself and the impact of domestic constraints on its foreign policy. I have found SinoInsider quite helpful in expanding my knowledge and enriching my understanding of the issues at stake.”
Ehud Yaari, Lafer International Fellow, The Washington Institute
“SinoInsider’s research on the CCP examines every detail in great depth and is a very valuable reference. Foreign researchers will find SinoInsider’s research helpful in understanding what is really going on with the CCP and China. ”
Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
“The forecasts of Prof. Chu-cheng Ming and the SinoInsider team are an invaluable resource in guiding our news reporting direction and anticipating the next moves of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.”
Chan Miu-ling, Radio Television Hong Kong China Team Deputy Leader
“SinoInsider always publishes interesting and provocative work on Chinese elite politics. It is very worthwhile to follow the work of SinoInsider to get their take on factional struggles in particular.”
Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
“[SinoInsider has] been very useful in my class on American foreign policy because it contradicts the widely accepted argument that the U.S. should work cooperatively with China. And the whole point of the course is to expose students to conflicting approaches to contemporary major problems.”
Roy Licklider, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
“As a China-based journalist, SinoInsider is to me a very reliable source of information to understand deeply how the CCP works and learn more about the factional struggle and challenges that Xi Jinping may face. ”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“SinoInsider offers an interesting perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade war and North Korea. Their predictions are often accurate, which is definitely very helpful.”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels.”
John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
“My teaching at Cambridge and policy analysis for the UK audience have been informed by insights from your analyzes. ”
Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."
Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University
“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”
Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute
“SinoInsider has been one of my most useful (and enjoyable) resources”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Professor Ming and his team’s analyses of current affairs are very far-sighted and directionally accurate. In the present media environment where it is harder to distinguish between real and fake information, SinoInsider’s professional perspectives are much needed to make sense of a perilous and unpredictable world. ”
Liu Cheng-chuan, Professor Emeritus, National Chiayi University
“Since the 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition movement, I have periodically engaged with articles from SinoInsider. SinoInsider’s insights have deepened my understanding of the Chinese Communist Party’s regime. These resources have been invaluable in navigating the opaque world of Chinese elite politics, significantly enhancing my commentary on my Hong Kong online radio program, HK Peanut.”
Andrew To Kwan-hang, former chairman of the League of Social Democrats and founder of HK Peanut