SINOWEEKLYPLUS

On Xi, Kim, Dalai Lama, and Sino-US trade; Malaysia’s shock election and its future relations with China

SinoInsight 1
A coalition led by former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad ousted Malaysia’s ruling party in a shock election win on May 10.

Hours after the election results were confirmed, the 92-year-old Mahathir announced that Malaysia may renegotiate some of its deals with China.

OUR TAKE
Under outgoing prime minister Najib Razak, Malaysia drew closer to China economically and took on projects that would advance Beijing’s economic expansionism. The Najib government secured $34 billion of Belt and Road-related infrastructure projects, including a $13 billion East Coast Rail Link which Mahathir described as “wasteful” on the election campaign trail.

While Mahathir has said that he supports the BRI, his government could still pivot Malaysia away from Chinese investments if renegotiations on deals struck under Najib fizzle.

Malaysia-U.S. relations could improve under the new government. Mahathir has said that the “rule of law” would prevail on Najib’s 1MDB money-laundering scandal, which is being investigated by the U.S. and other countries. In 2017, U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions described 1MDB as “kleptocracy at its worst.”

Should the Trump administration resolve security issues on the Korean Peninsula, Malaysia could also distance itself from China.

SinoInsight 2
There have been numerous human rights cases involving Chinese military veterans recently. Three incidents broke out on May 8 and May 9 alone:

May 8: Over 300 veterans who were unfairly dismissed from state-owned banks launched a petition outside the new Ministry of Veteran Affairs. Meanwhile, retired naval cadres assembled near a PLA Navy compound in Beijing to protest.

May 9: More than a hundred veterans who fought in China’s war with Vietnam took to the streets of Leizhou, Guangdong Province, to protest for improved benefits.

OUR TAKE
1. The People’s Liberation Army was deeply corrupt during Jiang Zemin’s era of dominance, and many military veterans saw their retirement benefits vanish over time. Thus, many veterans have started to protest, most notably in October 2016 when tens of thousands from all over the country gathered in Beijing and surrounded the Central Military Commission building.

2. The new Ministry of Veteran Affairs was established in 2018 precisely in response to the veterans issue.

3. All but one of China’s provinces were in the red between 2012 to 2017. So local governments would rather spend more money on “stability maintenance” to deal with the veterans than pay their benefits.

4. Given China’s domestic instabilities, it is unlikely that Beijing would tempt an invasion of Taiwan.

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