SinoInsight 1
In the wake of the Changchun Changsheng Biotechnology vaccine scandal, Chinese officials, celebrities, and well-known businesspeople have publicly fumed that their children were among the many victims of the toxic vaccines. Changsheng’s vaccine safety problems and information that the company had “survived” over 20 bribery probes have also surfaced.
OUR TAKE
1. The fact that Changsheng was able to establish a monopoly and reap immense profits without suffering repercussions flags it as a “white glove,” or money launderer, of elite Chinese Communist Party cadres. Given that Changsheng had stayed in business for over a decade, the head of the “protection racket” providing security to Changsheng would have to be a powerful national-level official.
2. Based on our research, the officials connected with the scandal have links to the Jiang Zemin faction’s “Jilin Clique.” And Zhang Dejiang, a key Jiang lieutenant and former Politburo Standing Committee member who gained prominence in the Jiang-era while serving in Jilin, is a prime suspect.
3. There has been much speculation recently that Xi Jinping has run afoul of the “CCP elders.” It cannot be ruled out that Xi would retaliate against Jiang faction officials when he returns to China from a 10-day overseas trip. As is characteristic of CCP rule, however, any senior cadre that is purged would unlikely be publicly linked with the vaccine scandal. In fact, the CCP would do its utmost to cover up any connections between the scandal and a purge.
SinoInsight 2
Several signs have emerged recently which suggest that the North Korea denuclearization and peace progress is moving in a positive direction.
Satellite images on July 20 and July 22 posted by 38 North show that North Korea has began dismantling the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, the facility which Kim Jong Un promised President Donald Trump he would take down at the Singapore Summit.
On July 22, General Vincent Brooks, commander of the U.S. forces in Korea, said at the Aspen Security Forum about North Korea peace and denuclearization progress that “the lack of trust is the enemy we now have to defeat.”
On July 25, South Korea foreign minister Kang Kyung-wha said that there was a chance that the relevant parties involved in the Korean War would declare an end to the war at the United Nations General Assembly session in September. The gesture, if realized, would be a “political declaration” aimed at facilitating the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, Yonhap News reported Kang as saying.
Also on July 25, U.S. State Department Korea desk director and acting deputy assistant secretary Mark Lambert arrived in South Korea for discussions on North Korea policy with South Korean officials. Meanwhile, Chinese vice foreign minister Kong Xuanyou traveled to Pyongyang to brief North Korean officials on Beijing’s stance on the denuclearization negotiations, according to South Korean media.
Mike Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State, answered questions about North Korea at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on July 25. He affirmed that Pyongyang understood that it would completely denuclearize per America’s definition, and sanctions would remain in place until denuclearization is realized. Pompeo said that he is “incredibly hopeful” that Kim would denuclearize, and noted that the Trump administration has “taken enormously constructive actions” that have put America “in a far better place than either of the previous two administrations.”
Pompeo noted that the Trump administration is engaged in “complex negotiation with a difficult adversary” and activities undertaken by the administration are “not going to be apparent to the world at the moment it is undertaken.” He also confirmed that the goal is to denuclearize North Korea within President Trump’s first term, and “more quickly if possible.”
OUR TAKE
Trump tweeted a while back that there was “great progress” with North Korea. The recent flurry of activity from North Korea, South Korea, China, and the U.S. somewhat back up his read of the situation.
We wrote earlier that denuclearization and peace would hinge on trust between North Korea and the U.S., an assessment that Gen. Vincent Brooks also seems to hold. If sufficient trust can be established, there is a very good chance that a peace treaty could be signed in the next three months, and complete denuclearization could be achieved within Trump’s first term.
