SinoInsight 1
On July 23, PRC state media reported that former Chinese premier Li Peng had passed away. Key points in Li’s orbitary include:
- Li and most members of the Politburo, with “resolute support” from Deng Xiaoping, made “decisive moves” to “end the counter-revolutionary riot” between “spring and summer 1989.”
- Li presided over the formulation of the PRC’s Ninth Five Year Plan and arranged a batch of major national projects, including the Three Gorges project where he played an “important role in the scientific and democratic decision” and construction of the dam.
- After retiring, Li “always supported the rule of Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping,” and showed continued support for the anti-corruption movement.
OUR TAKE
1. Li Peng’s official orbitary places the majority of the blame for the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989 on Li and “most members of the Politburo” at the time. Deng Xiaoping is “clarified” as having only a “support” role.
Li earned the moniker “Butcher of Beijing” because he signed the order declaring martial law in Beijing and later order military troops to crackdown on the student protesters. In his “Li Peng’s June Fourth Diary” book, which was only published overseas, Li pushed the responsibility for the Tiananmen massacre to Deng Xiaoping by claiming that it was Deng who had the final say in ordering troops into Beijing.
2. Li Peng’s obituary also “clarifies” his “important” role in the Three Gorges dam.
In Li’s book on the Three Gorges (published in mainland China), he claims that “all major decisions on building the Three Gorges were taken by Comrade Jiang Zemin. Jiang played an important leading role in the construction of the dam.”
The construction of the Three Gorges dam was a controversial issue in the Party. Many prominent water conservancy experts opposed the project, including the famous Tsinghua University professor Huang Wanli. Huang wrote six letters to Jiang and Li on the Three Gorges issue where he laid out the geological, environmental, ecological, and military problems that constructing the Three Gorges dam would bring. He also warned that the “Three Gorges dam, if built, will eventually be forced to be blown up.” In recent weeks, the integrity of the Three Gorges dam has come into question after people posted satellite photos online which appear to indicate that the dam was warping and at risk of splitting.
Based on our understanding of CCP elite politics and operations, we believe that it is likely that Deng Xiaoping agreed to let Li Peng handle the Three Gorges project after the Tiananmen massacre as a way to “reward” him for his actions in saving the “fate and future of the Party and state.” By overseeing the Three Gorges project, Li and his clan would be able to quietly make a profit from the dam construction. Meanwhile, Jiang Zemin backed Li Peng and the dam project because he had just become Party boss and was still relatively weak politically. As the Three Gorges project saw more and more problems surface over time (ecological impact on the Yangtze River, frequent earthquakes, droughts and floods, etc.), however, Li Peng eventually decided to shirk his responsibility by “crediting” Jiang for playing an “important leading role” in the dam project.
3. The line in the obituary about Li having always supported Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping, and the anti-corruption campaign suggests that the CCP will not investigate Li Peng’s family for corruption. Li’s descendants appear to be safe so long as they do not line up with political enemies of the Xi camp.
SinoInsight 2
On July 24, the PRC State Council Information Office published a white paper titled, “China’s National Defense in the New Era.”
The white paper attempts to make the case that the PRC does not want to dominate the world. However, in “resolutely safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the PRC has to take actions like “build infrastructure and deploy necessary defensive capabilities on the islands and reefs in the South China Sea,” “oppose and contain ‘Taiwan independence’,” as well as “crackdown on proponents of separatist movements such as ‘Tibet independence’ and the creation of ‘East Turkistan’.”
The white paper also reiterates the PRC’s desire to create a so-called international community with “shared destiny,” as well as the realization of the PRC’s “strong military” (强軍) vision and “basically complete the modernization of national defense and the military by 2035.”
In a news briefing on the white paper, PRC Ministry of Defense spokesman Wu Qian said “China’s military will be ready to go to war to firmly safeguard national sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity” if people dare to “split Taiwan from the country.” Also, Wu broadly hinted that the People’s Liberation Army can handle protests in Hong Kong if the Hong Kong government requires it.
OUR TAKE
1. In recent weeks, the CCP has been quietly building a propaganda narrative that “China does not seek to dominate or desire global hegemony.” Most notably, Chinese vice president Wang Qishan declared in a speech at the 8th World Peace Forum at Tsinghua University on July 8 that “no matter how the international situation changes and develops, China will never seek hegemony, never expand, and never grow its sphere of influence.” The July 24 defense white paper appears to be designed to back the propagative narrative which Wang put forth.
2. The PRC defense white paper can also be viewed in the context of a pair of open letters addressed to U.S. President Donald Trump on current American policy on China.
The first letter, signed by over a hundred members of the U.S. scholarly, foreign policy, military and business community and titled “China is not an enemy,” notes that Beijing is not an “economic enemy or an existential national security threat” to the U.S. and that America’s fears that China will replace the U.S. as a global leader “is exaggerated.” The second letter, signed by over a hundred members former U.S. military and intelligence officials, scholars, think tank members, and other China watchers and titled “Stay the course on China,” notes that the “Chinese Communists’ stated ambitions are antithetical to America’s strategic interests, and the PRC is increasingly taking actions that imperil the United States and our allies.” (Disclaimer: SinoInsider responded to the “China is not an enemy” letter on July 7 and signed the “Stay the course on China” letter.)
Based on our observation, PRC state and Party media has firmly praised the first letter and strongly attacked the second letter. One of the earliest criticisms of the second letter from the Chinese foreign ministry even singled out the fact that Falun Gong adherents had signed the letter in an attempt to discredit it. This is noteworthy because the CCP considers Falun Gong taboo and avoids calling attention to the spiritual practice in public statements. That the CCP feels the need to explicitly call out Falun Gong practitioners who signed the second letter suggests that it is very threatened by their involvement in an anti-CCP statement.
We earlier analyzed that the Trump administration’s human rights moves in the week of July 15, would very likely lead the CCP to believe that the U.S. has already pressed the human rights “nuclear” button. From the CCP’s perspective, the second open letter would seem like “evidence” that Falun Gong is now working with military and intelligence “hawks” to oppose the PRC (whether or not this is the case is an entirely separate issue). The CCP would find this development particularly worrisome because Falun Gong turned anti-communist after Jiang Zemin launched his crackdown in 1999. An August 2018 article on Falun Gong in The Economist notes that the CCP’s “ruthless campaign” has “significantly weakened, but not destroyed” the sect and that Falun Gong’s “activities abroad that are an even bigger, and growing, concern for the Communist Party.” Falun Gong adherents’ anti-communist moves include the publication of a book that is highly critical of the CCP (The Nine Commentaries of the Communist Party), launching a “quit the Party” movement (Tuidang), establishing multi-language news media that persistently report on CCP persecution in China and overseas subversion, and the creation of a traditional Chinese culture dance troupe (Shen Yun) that features vignettes about the Falun Gong crackdown. The Economist cites a scholar as saying that “China’s campaign against Falun Gong is likely to be a never-ending war of attrition.”
In sum, the CCP believes that Falun Gong represents a legitimate threat to its rule, and fears possible Falun Gong involvement in the potential “Cold War”-style confrontation with the United States.
3. The CCP undoubtedly seeks to downplay U.S. fears of PRC global hegemony with the defense white paper. We believe, however, the white paper will likely produce the opposite effect.
First, the white paper continues to justify CCP oppression in Tibet and Xinjiang, its opposition to “Taiwan independence,” and its island-building in the South China Sea. The white paper also notes that the CCP will continue with its “strong military” objectives. It is unlikely that the U.S. government would not pick up on this.
Second, the idea of an “international community with a shared destiny” sounds suspiciously like Party speak for “world communism.” The CCP never abandoned its Marxist-Leninist ideology and the ultimate goal of world domination.
Finally, the U.S. government and patriots are paying closer attention to CCP propaganda and influence operations, and will almost certainly be very wary of any self-justifying documentation issued by the PRC.
