SINOWEEKLYPLUS

Signs of good progress on Sino-US trade talks; China’s provincial finances not favorable for trade war

SinoInsight 1
According to the recently released residential land supply data for 2018, Chongqing, Beijing, Wuhan, and Shanghai each have over 1,000 hectares of available land. Concurrently, over 20 cities (including Nanjing, Wuhan, and Xi’an) have introduced generous policies (offers of money, housing, and household registration status) in an unprecedented bid to attract talent.

OUR TAKE
The “talent grab” bid by the above-mentioned cities is really a “population grab.” The Chinese Communist Party’s “one-child” policy and other earlier population measures are causing China to lose its demographic dividend. The CCP’s “two-child” policy also hasn’t been working out well since the early phases of its rollout in 2013; there were 17.86 million newborns in 2016, but only 17.23 million in 2017. As China’s population ages, the country would see labor shortages and a drop in economic dynamism and innovation in the next two or three decades.

SinoInsight 2
On April 25, the Civil Aviation Administration of China told 36 airliners, including some American carriers, to remove any information suggesting that Taiwan, Hong Kong or Macau are not part of China.

On May 5, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders wrote in response: “This is Orwellian nonsense and part of a growing trend by the Chinese Communist Party to impose its political views on American citizens and private companies.”

OUR TAKE
The White House statement came a day after China-U.S. trade discussions in Beijing and directly named the CCP, a rare move. We believe that this is a measure by the Trump administration to consolidate the gains of the trade talks. See our articles analyzing the trade discussions below.

Recommended articles

Beijing doubles down on security amid slowing economy
Beijing doubles down on security amid slowing economy
Ma Xingrui’s downfall and current dynamics in CCP elite politics
Ma Xingrui’s downfall and current dynamics in CCP elite politics
Xi’s CCP 105th anniversary speech and Beijing’s ambitions
Xi’s CCP 105th anniversary speech and Beijing’s ambitions
PRC’s 2025 audit report exposes various risks in the CCP regime; the 20-trillion-yuan energy bubble in the CCP’s 15th Five-Year Plan
PRC’s 2025 audit report exposes various risks in the CCP regime; the 20-trillion-yuan energy bubble in the CCP’s 15th Five-Year Plan
Beijing’s plan to stabilize foreign investment hints at heavy outflows; why PRC media is touting the ‘three major transformations’
Beijing’s plan to stabilize foreign investment hints at heavy outflows; why PRC media is touting the ‘three major transformations’
Analyzing Beijing’s white paper on global governance; why Beijing is rolling out ‘Xi Jinping Thought on Party building’
Analyzing Beijing’s white paper on global governance; why Beijing is rolling out ‘Xi Jinping Thought on Party building’
China’s May economic data hints at macroeconomic tipping point
China’s May economic data hints at macroeconomic tipping point
Why China’s exports stayed strong in May; Beijing targets retired financial officials
Why China’s exports stayed strong in May; Beijing targets retired financial officials
PBoC issues new interest rate policy; decoding China’s new private equity regulations
PBoC issues new interest rate policy; decoding China’s new private equity regulations
China’s infrastructure growth model losing effectiveness; Xi’s strategic intent behind visiting North Korea
China’s infrastructure growth model losing effectiveness; Xi’s strategic intent behind visiting North Korea
China 2025 Outlook Review
China 2025 Outlook Review
What a Qiushi piece on developing future industries says about Xi’s ambitions; the hidden liabilities of rapid industrial scaling in China’s NEV sector
What a Qiushi piece on developing future industries says about Xi’s ambitions; the hidden liabilities of rapid industrial scaling in China’s NEV sector

Testimonials

“The breadth of SinoInsider’s insights—from economics through the military to governance, all underpinned by unparalleled reporting on the people in charge—is stunning. In my over fifty years of in-depth reading on the PRC, unclassified and classified, SinoInsider is in a class all by itself.”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Unique insights are available frequently from the reports of Sinoinsider.”
Michael Pillsbury, Senior Fellow for China Strategy, The Heritage Foundation
“Thank you for your information and analysis. Very useful.”
Prof. Ravni Thakur, University of Delhi, India
“SinoInsider’s research has helped me with investing in or getting out of Chinese companies.”
Charles Nelson, Managing Director, Murdock Capital Partners
“I value SinoInsider because of its always brilliant articles touching on, to name just a few, CCP history, current trends, and factional politics. Its concise and incisive analysis — absent the cliches that dominate China policy discussions in DC and U.S. corporate boardrooms — also represents a major contribution to the history of our era by clearly defining the threat the CCP poses to American peace and prosperity and global stability. I am grateful to SinoInsider — long may it thrive!”
Lee Smith, Author and journalist
“Your publication insights tremendously help us complete our regular analysis on in-depth issues of major importance. ”
Ms. Nicoleta Buracinschi, Embassy of Romania to the People’s Republic of China
"I’m a very happy, satisfied subscriber to your service and all the deep information it provides to increase our understanding. SinoInsider is profoundly helping to alter the public landscape when it comes to the PRC."
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Prof. Ming’s information about the Sino-U.S. trade war is invaluable for us in Taiwan’s technology industry. Our company basically acted on Prof. Ming’s predictions and enlarged our scale and enriched our product lines. That allowed us to deal capably with larger orders from China in 2019. ”
Mr. Chiu, Realtek R&D Center
“I am following China’s growing involvement in the Middle East, seeking to gain a better understanding of China itself and the impact of domestic constraints on its foreign policy. I have found SinoInsider quite helpful in expanding my knowledge and enriching my understanding of the issues at stake.”
Ehud Yaari, Lafer International Fellow, The Washington Institute
“SinoInsider’s research on the CCP examines every detail in great depth and is a very valuable reference. Foreign researchers will find SinoInsider’s research helpful in understanding what is really going on with the CCP and China. ”
Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
“The forecasts of Prof. Chu-cheng Ming and the SinoInsider team are an invaluable resource in guiding our news reporting direction and anticipating the next moves of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.”
Chan Miu-ling, Radio Television Hong Kong China Team Deputy Leader
“SinoInsider always publishes interesting and provocative work on Chinese elite politics. It is very worthwhile to follow the work of SinoInsider to get their take on factional struggles in particular.”
Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
“[SinoInsider has] been very useful in my class on American foreign policy because it contradicts the widely accepted argument that the U.S. should work cooperatively with China. And the whole point of the course is to expose students to conflicting approaches to contemporary major problems.”
Roy Licklider, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
“As a China-based journalist, SinoInsider is to me a very reliable source of information to understand deeply how the CCP works and learn more about the factional struggle and challenges that Xi Jinping may face. ”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“SinoInsider offers an interesting perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade war and North Korea. Their predictions are often accurate, which is definitely very helpful.”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels.”
John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
“My teaching at Cambridge and policy analysis for the UK audience have been informed by insights from your analyzes. ”
Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."
Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University
“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”
Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute
“SinoInsider has been one of my most useful (and enjoyable) resources”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Professor Ming and his team’s analyses of current affairs are very far-sighted and directionally accurate. In the present media environment where it is harder to distinguish between real and fake information, SinoInsider’s professional perspectives are much needed to make sense of a perilous and unpredictable world. ”
Liu Cheng-chuan, Professor Emeritus, National Chiayi University
“Since the 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition movement, I have periodically engaged with articles from SinoInsider. SinoInsider’s insights have deepened my understanding of the Chinese Communist Party’s regime. These resources have been invaluable in navigating the opaque world of Chinese elite politics, significantly enhancing my commentary on my Hong Kong online radio program, HK Peanut.”
Andrew To Kwan-hang, former chairman of the League of Social Democrats and founder of HK Peanut