SinoInsight 1
Feb. 15
According to a Radio Free Asia report, data released by the Hubei civil affairs department showed that over 150,000 elderly people “disappeared” from the province’s state subsidy payments list in the first quarter of 2020, leading to speculation that there were far greater COVID-19 deaths than the CCP reported.
CCP data also tallied 410,000 cremations in Hubei in 2020, compared with 374,000 in 2019 and 360,000 in 2018 respectively. The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus first emerged in Hubei’s Wuhan City.
Feb. 18
Overseas Chinese language media Dajiyuan (Chinese edition of The Epoch Times) published an exclusive report on internal CCP documents they obtained which show that the regime knew about the coronavirus earlier than it publicly acknowledged.
According to an “Internal Situation Bulletin” government document issued by the Guangxi Health Commission on Jan. 16, 2020:
- The Guangxi Health Commission held two special “research and deployment” meetings on Dec. 31, 2019 and Jan. 7, 2020 as part of epidemic prevention and control measures.
- On Jan. 14, 2020, the PRC’s National Health Commission held a national teleconference on epidemic prevention and control to make arrangements for the task. During the teleconference, National Health Commission director Ma Xiaowei conveyed instructions on the epidemic situation from Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, and PRC vice premier Sun Chunlan. However, the “Internal Situation Bulletin” did not state the specific content of the aforementioned instructions.
- On Jan. 15, 2020, Guangxi Health Commission deputy director Wang Yong held a video conference on epidemic prevention and control in the province.
- Since December 2019, some hospitals in Wuhan had admitted cases of “unknown pneumonia,” and genome sequencing of respiratory samples from those patients indicated they were infected with a new type of coronavirus.
- The section “Hospital Infection Control” advised medical staff to “do a good job” with “personal protection, hand hygiene, ward management, environmental disinfection, and hospital waste management work” to avoid hospital infections.
- Except for infectious disease institutions at all levels of government, any institution or individual who seeks to collect and test epidemic-related specimens must seek advance approval from local health commissions. Institutions or individuals without approval are forbidden from collecting and working on epidemic specimens.
- The Notice is marked (特提・明電) for express dissemination (within a day), with instructions forbidding its spread on the internet.
OUR TAKE
1. It is clear from CCP internal documents that the Chinese communist regime knew about the COVID outbreak in advance but covered up the epidemic until January 20. During the early days of the outbreak, the CCP tightly censored information about the virus and punished medical whistleblowers, such as Li Wenliang. As observed in our China 2020 Outlook, “The PRC will attempt to conceal the various epidemics until the situation is dire.”
2. The mysterious “disappearance” of over 150,000 elderly people from Hubei’s state subsidy payments list in the first quarter of 2020 corresponds with the COVID epidemic. The coronavirus impacts the immunocompromised, over 60 demographic the hardest. Normally, Hubei should see an increase, not decrease, of elderly joining the subsidy payments list given China’s rapidly aging population. Under these circumstances, however, it is reasonable to correlate the “disappearance” of the elderly with COVID deaths.
In our last newsletter, we identified other indicators that hint at a far higher coronavirus death rate than official numbers reported in China.
3. Just prior to the Lunar New Year period, the CCP rolled out “all’s well” propaganda regarding the epidemic situation in China. A review of mainland news and official figures gives the impression that the CCP has gotten the latest coronavirus wave in Hebei and elsewhere “under control.”
We wrote in our China 2021 Outlook: “Coronavirus epidemic conditions could worsen in China, and new, harder to treat contagious diseases could emerge. In response, the CCP will seek to cover up the truth and blame other countries for the epidemic situation on the mainland. By the time the CCP finally admits that the crisis is serious, the epidemic will likely be beyond its control.”
Businesses, investors, and governments are advised to be skeptical of CCP propaganda and remain vigilant during the ongoing information “blackout” in China.
SinoInsight 2
Feb. 10
1. The 13th People’s Congress of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region announced that it passed the “Regulations on the Establishment of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region National Unity and Progress Model” (新疆維吾爾自治區民族團結進步模範區創建條例) during its Fourth Session on Feb. 5.
Highlights in the Regulations, which will be implemented on March 1, 2021, include:
- The Xinjiang local government will promote so-called “model areas and demonstration units for national unity and progress” in the region.
- The “model areas and demonstration units” are meant to promote “national unity” as opposed to “national division, religious extremism, and violent terrorism.” Also, the “model areas and demonstration units” will shape so-called “Chinese national community consciousness” and “socialist core values” (Party parlance for establishing brainwashing and “Sinicization” networks throughout Xinjiang).
- “All positive factors that can be mobilized” should be used to create “demonstration areas and units” in Xinjiang. The “working mechanism” of “Party Committee leadership, People’s Congress supervision, government responsibility, departmental collaboration, social participation, and military-land linkages” should also be “comprehensively promoted” in “demonstration areas and units.” Local governments at the county level and above must incorporate the creation of “demonstration areas and units” into their “development regulations, implementation plans, and supporting measures,” and this will serve as an important “assessment content” for government officials at all levels.
- All organizations and individuals that “instigate ethnic tensions, incite ethnic discrimination and hatred, undermine ethnic unity, and create malign incidents” must be punished, while “units and individuals who have made outstanding contributions” in the creation of “demonstration areas and units” will be rewarded.
2. The 120-member Republican Study Committee released a 6-page memo titled “Biden on China—Bad Policies, Bad Personnel.” The memo listed the Biden administration’s key actions since taking office that demonstrate “its weak stance toward Communist China” and exposed Biden foreign policy team’s CCP connections.
Feb. 16
1. During a CNN town hall, President Joe Biden said that “the central principle of Xi Jinping is that there must be a united, tightly controlled China” because “if you know anything about Chinese history … China has been victimized by the outer world when they haven’t been unified at home.”
Biden also said he told Xi that “no American President can be sustained as a President if he doesn’t reflect the values of the United States,” and the latter “gets it” that Biden has to “speak out against what [Xi is] doing in Hong Kong, what he’s doing with the Uyghurs in western mountains of China and Taiwan, trying to end the One China policy by making it forceful.” However, “culturally, there are different norms that each country and they—their leaders—are expected to follow,” Biden added.
When asked about whether there would be repercussions for China on human rights abuses, Biden said, “there will be repercussions for China, and [Xi] knows that.”
2. In an interview with NPR, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that “President Trump was right to take a tougher line on some of the egregious things that China has done and is doing that are counter to our interests and counter to our values,” but disagreed with the Trump administration’s methods.
Blinken said that the U.S. should instead work with allies and partners, engage with the world, invest in Americans and technology, and “actually stand up for our values, when we don’t say it’s okay for China to create concentration camps for Uyghurs in Xinjiang or to trample on democracy in Hong Kong.” Doing the aforementioned “sets the foundation for engaging China, whether it’s in an adversarial aspect, a competitive one, or a cooperative one, from a position of strength, not weakness.”
Feb. 17
U.S. officials told The Washington Post that “in China, some U.S. personnel have complained about being subjected to an anal swab test for the coronavirus by Chinese authorities.” Also, “in response to questions about the anal swab testing of U.S. officials, a State Department spokesperson said the department was ‘evaluating all reasonable options’ to address the issue with the aim of preserving the ‘dignity’ of U.S. officials ‘consistent with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.’”
Feb. 18
After a two-month delay, the PRC suddenly greenlighted the sale of the U.S. consulate staff compound in Hong Kong. In September 2020, Hang Lung Properties Ltd. agreed to purchase the compound for $332 million, but the PRC halted the transaction in December on grounds that any property transaction involving U.S. diplomatic missions in mainland China and Hong Kong requires a written application to the PRC government.
OUR TAKE
1. Establishment media are advertising the narrative of a Biden-Harris administration that is “tough on China,” but this runs counter to recent public statements from President Biden and his Secretary of State.
Secretary Blinken talks about “engaging China” in his NPR interview, rehashing the U.S. foreign policy parlance of the “engagement” period. His comments about Xinjiang and Hong Kong seem like a subtle jibe at what establishment media has reported about the Trump administration (we are skeptical about those reports given strong media bias against President Trump and the Trump administration’s public stance and actions on Hong Kong and Xinjiang), and are not forthcoming about how the Biden-Harris administration plans to hold the CCP accountable for human rights abuses. The CCP is bound to notice Blinken’s ambivalent stance on China, and will act accordingly.
The CCP would also have noticed with glee that Biden repeated their “Century of Humiliation” propaganda (Biden’s “Chinese history” remarks) and cited “cultural norms” to excuse their authoritarian behavior, aggressive external behavior (Taiwan and Hong Kong), and persecution in Xinjiang. By “cultural norms,” it is unclear whether Biden is referring to those embraced by the CCP or the Chinese people; we previously explained why distinguishing between the Chinese people and the CCP is “the most important distinction to make concerning U.S. policy on China.”
On its current trajectory, the Biden-Harris administration’s rhetoric on China will inadvertently “help” the CCP “normalize” its malign behavior and embolden the regime to be even more aggressive. Already, U.S. diplomatic personnel in China are subjected to humiliating anal swab testing. Of course, the CCP will “reciprocate” the less confrontational U.S. stance towards China through small “goodwill” gestures, such as approving the sale of the U.S. consulate staff compound in Hong Kong.
2. The “Regulations on the Establishment of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region National Unity and Progress Model” is a document that essentially codifies the ongoing persecution in Xinjiang. Under the banner of “national unity and progress,” as well as rooting out “extremism,” the CCP is looking to assess, reward, and punish local officials (civilian and military) in Xinjiang based on how well they “handle” Uyghur Muslims and other ethnic minorities in the region. This persecution policy share similarities with the “civilized cities” (文明城市) program which gave rise to violent, thuggish “urban management” (城管) on the mainland, and is akin to what the CCP rolled out against Falun Gong during the Jiang Zemin faction era of dominance (1997 to 2012). Through mandatory performance evaluation, the CCP’s anti-Falun Gong policy introduced a profit/interest model to encourage CCP officials and the Chinese population to participate in the persecution.
President Biden promised “repercussions” for China on human rights issues. How and whether the U.S. imposes actual costs on the CCP for human rights abuses will affect the severity of the persecution campaign in Xinjiang.
