SINOWEEKLYPLUS

The ‘People’s Leader’ and the ‘phase one’ deal; analyzing the Hong Kong Liaison Office personnel reshuffle

SinoInsight  1  

On Jan. 1, the CCP ideological journal Qiushi published its first issue for 2020. Featured in the issue was a speech by Xi Jinping delivered at the closing of the Fourth Plenum of the 19th Central Committee on Oct. 31, 2019.

In the speech, titled “Adhere to and Improve the Socialist System with Chinese Characteristics and Promote the Modernization of the National Governance System and Capabilities,” Xi again repeated a point from his speech given at the 60th anniversary of the establishing of the National People’s Congress in 2014: “To evaluate whether or not a country’s political system is democratic and effective, a main factor is whether or not the country’s leadership ranks can be replaced in accordance with the law.”

OUR TAKE
1. The Sept. 15, 2019 edition of Qiushi published Xi’s 2014 speech. In analyzing the speech, we wrote: “We believe that the publication of Xi’s 2014 speech in Qiushi before the Fourth Plenum in October is Xi’s way of signaling to the Party that he only abolished presidential term limits to deal with the Jiang faction and does not actually plan to rule for life. Xi would likely be hoping that the CCP elite would get the hint, stop opposing him, and get behind his effort to tackle the multiple crises facing the regime. Whether or not the Party’s elite believe Xi is another matter.”

The publication of Xi’s 2014 speech in September could be a reason why there were rumors that Xi was planning to designate a successor and add two members to the Politburo Standing Committee ahead of the Fourth Plenum in October.

2. For Xi to again repeat his point about replacing the “country’s leadership ranks … in accordance with the law” at the Fourth Plenum affirms our analysis that there is a stalemate in the CCP factional struggle where neither Xi nor his opponents feel that they can overwhelm the other.

For Qiushi to publish Xi’s Fourth Plenum speech ahead of the signing of “phase one” of the Sino-U.S. trade deal indicates that Xi is still seeking consensus and compromise from within the Party on the signing; Xi is “compromising” by again telegraphing his intention not to serve for a lifetime despite having removed term limits for the PRC presidency in 2018.

In sum, Qiushi’s publication of Xi’s Fourth Plenum speech is a sign that Xi Jinping wants to seal the “phase one” deal and is actively working to overcome the CCP factional struggle huddle.

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