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Politics Watch: We Predicted the CPPCC Leadership with Over 70% Accuracy

◎ We scored 18 out of 25 for our CPPCC Two Sessions personnel forecast.


The 13th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) elected its chairman and other key personnel during its fourth plenary session on March 14.

As we anticipated in our 19th Party Congress predictions, Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Yang became the new CPPCC chairman, replacing Yu Zhengsheng.

Of the 24 newly elected vice chairs, 10 are serving a second term.

We scored 18 out of 25 (72 percent accuracy) for our CPPCC Two Sessions personnel forecast. Ten of the 17 we picked previously served as CPPCC vice chairs.

Why our forecasting matters:
1. SinoInsider is the only group that has produced a list of 118 potential key appointees for the Two Sessions, the second most important mass political reshuffle after the 19th Congress. We have the confidence to forecast key personnel movement in China because we have a unique research methodology that allows us to make predictions with a very high degree of accuracy. Our research methodology also allows us to accurately assess political risk on the mainland.

Read more:
19th Party Congress Forecast
19th Congress Forecast Update
What’s Next for Wang Qishan
Decoding Wang Qishan’s Seating at the National People’s Congress Session

2. The political rules changed in China after Xi Jinping became CCP General Secretary in 2012. Over 1.5 millions Chinese officials have been purged under Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, including “untouchables” like Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang. Big multinationals were suddenly handed massive fines, including companies like Microsoft who have been in China for decades and have good relations with the Party’s elite.

Also, Sino-U.S. relations took on a new dimension after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential elections in 2016. Trump has irked China by being friendly with Taiwan and getting tough on trade issues and intellectual property theft. Yet Trump the China hawk is on excellent terms with Xi, while Mike Pompeo, his Secretary of State-designate, remarked that Xi has “incredible capacity to do good around the world” when he fully consolidates power.

Meanwhile, conventional thinking and research about China provides few answers or comprehensive explanations to the new developments. (See: Questioning the Discourse on Xi Jinping’s ‘Power Grab’)

3. China’s economic issues are political issues, and political issues are linked with CCP factional struggle (neidou). The political “fog of war” is particularly risky for businesses in China, and missteps can be costly.

Companies that factor in political risk, however, stand to avoid losing big: After seeking out our experts for advice, a big Taiwanese company decided against investing in a province on the mainland, and saved tens of millions after the political winds shifted in the province.

4. Our political situation advisory services can help companies in China sidestep risks and seize business opportunities.

"I’m a very happy, satisfied subscriber to your service and all the deep information it provides to increase our understanding. SinoInsider is profoundly helping to alter the public landscape when it comes to the PRC."
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Prof. Ming’s information about the Sino-U.S. trade war is invaluable for us in Taiwan’s technology industry. Our company basically acted on Prof. Ming’s predictions and enlarged our scale and enriched our product lines. That allowed us to deal capably with larger orders from China in 2019. ”
Mr. Chiu, Realtek R&D Center
“I am following China’s growing involvement in the Middle East, seeking to gain a better understanding of China itself and the impact of domestic constraints on its foreign policy. I have found SinoInsider quite helpful in expanding my knowledge and enriching my understanding of the issues at stake.”
Ehud Yaari, Lafer International Fellow, The Washington Institute
“SinoInsider’s research on the CCP examines every detail in great depth and is a very valuable reference. Foreign researchers will find SinoInsider’s research helpful in understanding what is really going on with the CCP and China. ”
Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
“The forecasts of Prof. Chu-cheng Ming and the SinoInsider team are an invaluable resource in guiding our news reporting direction and anticipating the next moves of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.”
Chan Miu-ling, Radio Television Hong Kong China Team Deputy Leader
“SinoInsider always publishes interesting and provocative work on Chinese elite politics. It is very worthwhile to follow the work of SinoInsider to get their take on factional struggles in particular.”
Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
“[SinoInsider has] been very useful in my class on American foreign policy because it contradicts the widely accepted argument that the U.S. should work cooperatively with China. And the whole point of the course is to expose students to conflicting approaches to contemporary major problems.”
Roy Licklider, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
“As a China-based journalist, SinoInsider is to me a very reliable source of information to understand deeply how the CCP works and learn more about the factional struggle and challenges that Xi Jinping may face. ”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“SinoInsider offers an interesting perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade war and North Korea. Their predictions are often accurate, which is definitely very helpful.”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels.”
John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
“My teaching at Cambridge and policy analysis for the UK audience have been informed by insights from your analyzes. ”
Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."
Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University
“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”
Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute
“SinoInsider has been one of my most useful (and enjoyable) resources”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Professor Ming and his team’s analyses of current affairs are very far-sighted and directionally accurate. In the present media environment where it is harder to distinguish between real and fake information, SinoInsider’s professional perspectives are much needed to make sense of a perilous and unpredictable world. ”
Liu Cheng-chuan, Professor Emeritus, National Chiayi University
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