Politics Watch: Fang Fenghui’s Expulsion, Meng Hongwei’s Arrest, and the Factional ‘Soft Coup’

The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee announced the expulsion of former generals Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang from the Party on Oct. 16. Both generals, who previously sat on the Central Military Commission, were found guilty of corruption and will have their illicit proceeds confiscated. Fang’s case was handed over to prosecutors. State media criticized …

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Risk Watch: Declining Export Surplus Will Affect China’s Forex Earnings

The Sino-U.S. trade war and China’s worsening economy have hurt China’s export surplus. According to official economic figures released near the end of September, China’s export surplus fell by a third in the first eight months of 2018 as compared to the previous year. China’s top three performing provinces by GDP, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, …

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Scrap the Third Communique With China, Keep the Six Assurances to Taiwan

By Joseph Bosco President Donald Trump has not hesitated to tear up international commitments made by his predecessors if he determines they are not in America’s national interest. That was the fate of the Paris Climate Accord, the Global Migration Accord, North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the U.S.-Korea trade agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan …

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Politics Watch: Meng Hongwei Purge Hints at ‘Soft Coup’ Against Xi

The sudden vanishing and investigation of Interpol chief Meng Hongwei has called renewed attention to the Chinese Communist Party’s pernicious behavior, human rights abuses, and political infighting. Based on our research and understanding of CCP elite politics, we believe that the unusual and abrupt purge of Meng is a sign of serious trouble in the …

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Geopolitics Watch: On Correctly Predicting Trends in China-US Relations

Heading into the final quarter of 2018, it has become clearer that “strategic competition” between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has moved up several notches. On the U.S. side, President Donald Trump called out the PRC’s attempt to interfere in the November midterm election, while Vice President Mike Pence laid …

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Geopolitics Watch: America Presses on the CCP’s Vital Points

From President Donald Trump’s remarks on China at the United Nations General Assembly to United States sanctions against a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) department and its head, recent signs indicate that the Trump administration is getting tough on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and is planning to get tougher. We earlier analyzed that the …

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Geopolitics Watch: How the CCP Can Interfere in US Elections

United States President Donald Trump accused China of trying to meddle in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in his opening remarks at the 2018 United Nations Security Council session on Sept. 26. “Regrettably, we’ve found that China has been attempting to interfere in our upcoming 2018 election coming up in November against my administration. They …

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Risk Watch: The CCP’s ‘Controlled Blow Up’ of Local Debt Could Trigger a Black Swan

China’s State Council and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Office published guidelines that call on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to reduce their debt ratio on Sept. 13. A measure in the guidelines that allows local government financing platforms to go bankrupt has sparked social debate and some panic.[1] We believe that the CCP is carrying …

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Geopolitics Watch: In Third Summit with Moon, Kim Successfully Sells Irreversible Denuclearization to N. Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean president Moon Jae-in held a third meeting in Pyongyang from Sept. 18 to Sept. 20. On Sept. 19, the two leaders signed a joint agreement which the South Korean side has characterized as a proclamation to end the Korean War. United States President Donald Trump remarked …

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Win the Trade War with China to Deter a Real War

By Joseph Bosco President Trump just took the latest escalatory move in a trade war the United States and China are vigorously waging as either a proxy for a shooting war, or a run-up to one. The outcome of the trade confrontation, and the lessons it teaches, will greatly influence the likelihood of actual conflict in the future. …

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