◎ The propaganda narratives in Xinhua lay the groundwork for Xi to agree to U.S. demands on sensitive issues like structural reform without losing face at home.
Read moreGeopolitics Watch: Xi Lays Groundwork for Trade Concessions in State Media
China
The End of Strategic Ambiguity on Taiwan?
◎ Is the United States government about to declare a clear and firm commitment to defend Taiwan?
Geopolitics Watch: Will China and America Reach a Real Trade Deal By March 1?
◎ Xi has pressing need to compromise, and Trump will not accept a “superficial” trade deal.
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Geopolitics Watch: US Strategic Advantages of Holding the Second Trump-Kim Meeting in Vietnam
◎ Manufacturers may eventually shift out of China to Vietnam and an economically liberalized North Korea.
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Post-shutdown, Trump Must Get Tough with Foreign Adversaries
◎ History has taught that an American president’s credibility on a major U.S. domestic issue can be transferable to tests of will in the international arena, for good or ill.
Read morePost-shutdown, Trump Must Get Tough with Foreign Adversaries
Geopolitics Watch: Sino-US Trade Enforcement and the ZTE ‘Probation’ Model
◎ America could have the ZTE model in mind in enforcing the trade deal.
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The 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis: Three What Ifs?
◎ There has been much talk about the recent comments of a Chinese military official issuing a dire warning against the United States resisting China’s aggression in the region.
Politics Watch: Guangdong Public Security Chief Says ‘Political Risk’ a Major Focus of 2019
◎ The remarks of Li Chunsheng are a further sign that the CCP is feeling the pressure from rising social tensions.
Read morePolitics Watch: Guangdong Public Security Chief Says ‘Political Risk’ a Major Focus of 2019
Politics Watch: Former Securities Regulator’s Move to Rural Supply Cooperative a Further Sign of Regime Crisis
◎ Liu Shiyu’s transfer to the CCP’s rural supply cooperative is more than just a “demotion.”
Politics Watch: Politburo Meeting and Study Session Reveal Regime Crisis
◎ Xi is likely seeking to stamp his paramount authority and unify the Party as political, economic, and social crises mount in China.
Read morePolitics Watch: Politburo Meeting and Study Session Reveal Regime Crisis