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Over 71% Accurate: Our Predictions for China’s New Vice Premiers, State Councilors, Ministers

◎ On March 19, the 13th National People’s Congress elected new vice premiers, state councilors, ministers, committee heads, and key central bank appointees.


On March 19, the 13th National People’s Congress elected new vice premiers, state councilors, ministers, committee heads, and key central bank appointees.

Han Zheng, Sun Chunlan, Hu Chunhua, and Liu He was confirmed as vice premiers. We called this in January. (It is unclear where Yang Jiechi, whom we felt could be a fifth vice premier, would be posted.)

We correctly picked four of the five state councilors (80 percent accuracy), as well as 18 of the 26 ministers (69 percent accuracy).

Yi Gang, the former vice president of the People’s Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, replaced Zhou Xiaochuan as central bank chief. We identified Yi as one of four possible candidates for the job in October 2017.

Why our forecasting matters:
1. Economic and financial matters are downstream from elite CCP politics. And elite CCP politics is shaped by a factional struggle (neidou) between Xi Jinping and factional rivals. 

SinoInsider can decode China’s political black box because we know the core issue driving the factional struggle and elite CCP politics. Our accurate prediction of personnel movement at the Two Sessions and the 19th Party Congress shows that we have a pulse on elite CCP politics and China’s future directions.

2. The political rules have changed under Xi Jinping, and Sino-U.S. relations have become more complex under the Trump administration. Traditional political and geopolitical risk assessment models may be insufficient for decision-makers in the Xi era.

3. SinoInsider’s unique research methodology allows us to forecast personnel movement and political risk with a high degree of accuracy. Piercing the political “fog of war” in China can be very helpful to businesses who are looking to avoid costly pitfalls (like Microsoft).

Companies with businesses in China or firms looking to invest can sidestep risks and discover hidden opportunities with our political situation advisory services.

"I’m a very happy, satisfied subscriber to your service and all the deep information it provides to increase our understanding. SinoInsider is profoundly helping to alter the public landscape when it comes to the PRC."
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Prof. Ming’s information about the Sino-U.S. trade war is invaluable for us in Taiwan’s technology industry. Our company basically acted on Prof. Ming’s predictions and enlarged our scale and enriched our product lines. That allowed us to deal capably with larger orders from China in 2019. ”
Mr. Chiu, Realtek R&D Center
“I am following China’s growing involvement in the Middle East, seeking to gain a better understanding of China itself and the impact of domestic constraints on its foreign policy. I have found SinoInsider quite helpful in expanding my knowledge and enriching my understanding of the issues at stake.”
Ehud Yaari, Lafer International Fellow, The Washington Institute
“SinoInsider’s research on the CCP examines every detail in great depth and is a very valuable reference. Foreign researchers will find SinoInsider’s research helpful in understanding what is really going on with the CCP and China. ”
Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
“The forecasts of Prof. Chu-cheng Ming and the SinoInsider team are an invaluable resource in guiding our news reporting direction and anticipating the next moves of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.”
Chan Miu-ling, Radio Television Hong Kong China Team Deputy Leader
“SinoInsider always publishes interesting and provocative work on Chinese elite politics. It is very worthwhile to follow the work of SinoInsider to get their take on factional struggles in particular.”
Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
“[SinoInsider has] been very useful in my class on American foreign policy because it contradicts the widely accepted argument that the U.S. should work cooperatively with China. And the whole point of the course is to expose students to conflicting approaches to contemporary major problems.”
Roy Licklider, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
“As a China-based journalist, SinoInsider is to me a very reliable source of information to understand deeply how the CCP works and learn more about the factional struggle and challenges that Xi Jinping may face. ”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“SinoInsider offers an interesting perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade war and North Korea. Their predictions are often accurate, which is definitely very helpful.”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels.”
John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
“My teaching at Cambridge and policy analysis for the UK audience have been informed by insights from your analyzes. ”
Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."
Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University
“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”
Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute
“SinoInsider has been one of my most useful (and enjoyable) resources”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Professor Ming and his team’s analyses of current affairs are very far-sighted and directionally accurate. In the present media environment where it is harder to distinguish between real and fake information, SinoInsider’s professional perspectives are much needed to make sense of a perilous and unpredictable world. ”
Liu Cheng-chuan, Professor Emeritus, National Chiayi University
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