Personnel Watch: How We Scored on Forecasting the Top CPPCC Leadership

During the first meeting of the 13th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on March 2, the top advisory body’s leadership changed hands.

Yu Zhengsheng, the 12th CPPCC chairman, handed over his position to new Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Yang. Ten of the executive chairmen in the 13th CPPCC retained their seats from the 12th CPPCC. Also, former Propaganda Department chief Liu Qibao joined the 13th CPPCC as a new executive chairman.

Our take:
1. The 11 recently confirmed CPPCC vice chairs and the CPPCC chairman are in our Feb. 18 forecast of key personnel reshuffles at the Two Sessions. The remaining 11 executive chairmen will be officially confirmed as CPPCC vice chairs at the Two Sessions.

2. We are able to accurately predict the CPPCC reshuffle because we have a tried and tested methodology for decoding and monitoring China’s political situation, factional struggles (neidou), and personnel movement at the provincial level and above.

3. Previously, we correctly predicted the 19th Congress reshuffle with a very high degree of accuracy:

  • 7 Politburo Standing Committee Members – 100%
  • 7 Central Military Commission Members – 100%
  • 25 Politburo Committee Members – 80%
  • 204 Central Committee Members – 81%

Read how we did it here.

4. We’re also the first to analyze that Wang Qishan will be China’s next vice president.

Read more:
What’s Next for Wang Qishan After Leaving the CCP Central Committee

Wang Qishan’s Second Act: US-China Relations

Wang Qishan Not on Party’s ‘Old Comrades’ List

5. See the rest of our research and forecasting results here.