Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on telegram
Share on whatsapp
Share on linkedin
Share on print
Share on email

Personnel Watch: How We Scored on Forecasting the Top CPPCC Leadership

◎ The 11 recently confirmed CPPCC vice chairs and the CPPCC chairman are in our Feb. 18 forecast of key personnel reshuffles at the Two Sessions.

During the first meeting of the 13th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on March 2, the top advisory body’s leadership changed hands.

Yu Zhengsheng, the 12th CPPCC chairman, handed over his position to new Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Yang. Ten of the executive chairmen in the 13th CPPCC retained their seats from the 12th CPPCC. Also, former Propaganda Department chief Liu Qibao joined the 13th CPPCC as a new executive chairman.

Our take:
1. The 11 recently confirmed CPPCC vice chairs and the CPPCC chairman are in our Feb. 18 forecast of key personnel reshuffles at the Two Sessions. The remaining 11 executive chairmen will be officially confirmed as CPPCC vice chairs at the Two Sessions.

2. We are able to accurately predict the CPPCC reshuffle because we have a tried and tested methodology for decoding and monitoring China’s political situation, factional struggles (neidou), and personnel movement at the provincial level and above.

3. Previously, we correctly predicted the 19th Congress reshuffle with a very high degree of accuracy:

  • 7 Politburo Standing Committee Members – 100%
  • 7 Central Military Commission Members – 100%
  • 25 Politburo Committee Members – 80%
  • 204 Central Committee Members – 81%

Read how we did it here.

4. We’re also the first to analyze that Wang Qishan will be China’s next vice president.

Read more:
– What’s Next for Wang Qishan After Leaving the CCP Central Committee

– Wang Qishan’s Second Act: US-China Relations

– Wang Qishan Not on Party’s ‘Old Comrades’ List

5. See the rest of our research and forecasting results here.

Search past entries by date

Recommended articles

Political Censorship and the Communist-style Erosion of America
The 2020 US Presidential Election and the Communist Threat
Analyzing the Purge of Wang Qishan Aide Dong Hong
What the ‘Xi-Li Split’ Says About the State of the CCP Regime
Culture Strategy: Inoculating America and the World Against China’s ‘Virulent Strain of Communism’
The Trump Administration Is Tough and Strategic on China
Politics Watch: Hong Kong’s NatSec Set Up Signals ‘Supra-authority’ Status of the CCP’s NatSec Commission
Politics Watch: Ramifications of the Hong Kong Security Law for CCP Factional Politics
Politics Watch: Fourth Plenum Timing and Agenda Confirm Political Crisis in China
Influence Watch: Why the CCP Fears an Ideological Battle and a ‘Clash of Civilizations’
Politics Watch: Xi Faces Pushback from the Intelligence Apparatus
Why Xi Jinping Removed China’s Presidential Term Limit

Testimonials

“The breadth of SinoInsider’s insights—from economics through the military to governance, all underpinned by unparalleled reporting on the people in charge—is stunning. In my over fifty years of in-depth reading on the PRC, unclassified and classified, SinoInsider is in a class all by itself.”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Unique insights are available frequently from the reports of Sinoinsider.”
Michael Pillsbury, Senior Fellow for China Strategy, The Heritage Foundation
“Thank you for your information and analysis. Very useful.”
Prof. Ravni Thakur, University of Delhi, India
“SinoInsider’s research has helped me with investing in or getting out of Chinese companies.”
Charles Nelson, Managing Director, Murdock Capital Partners
“I value SinoInsider because of its always brilliant articles touching on, to name just a few, CCP history, current trends, and factional politics. Its concise and incisive analysis — absent the cliches that dominate China policy discussions in DC and U.S. corporate boardrooms — also represents a major contribution to the history of our era by clearly defining the threat the CCP poses to American peace and prosperity and global stability. I am grateful to SinoInsider — long may it thrive!”
Lee Smith, Author and journalist
“Your publication insights tremendously help us complete our regular analysis on in-depth issues of major importance. ”
Ms. Nicoleta Buracinschi, Embassy of Romania to the People’s Republic of China
"I’m a very happy, satisfied subscriber to your service and all the deep information it provides to increase our understanding. SinoInsider is profoundly helping to alter the public landscape when it comes to the PRC."
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Prof. Ming’s information about the Sino-U.S. trade war is invaluable for us in Taiwan’s technology industry. Our company basically acted on Prof. Ming’s predictions and enlarged our scale and enriched our product lines. That allowed us to deal capably with larger orders from China in 2019. ”
Mr. Chiu, Realtek R&D Center
“I am following China’s growing involvement in the Middle East, seeking to gain a better understanding of China itself and the impact of domestic constraints on its foreign policy. I have found SinoInsider quite helpful in expanding my knowledge and enriching my understanding of the issues at stake.”
Ehud Yaari, Lafer International Fellow, The Washington Institute
“SinoInsider’s research on the CCP examines every detail in great depth and is a very valuable reference. Foreign researchers will find SinoInsider’s research helpful in understanding what is really going on with the CCP and China. ”
Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
“The forecasts of Prof. Chu-cheng Ming and the SinoInsider team are an invaluable resource in guiding our news reporting direction and anticipating the next moves of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.”
Chan Miu-ling, Radio Television Hong Kong China Team Deputy Leader
“SinoInsider always publishes interesting and provocative work on Chinese elite politics. It is very worthwhile to follow the work of SinoInsider to get their take on factional struggles in particular.”
Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
“[SinoInsider has] been very useful in my class on American foreign policy because it contradicts the widely accepted argument that the U.S. should work cooperatively with China. And the whole point of the course is to expose students to conflicting approaches to contemporary major problems.”
Roy Licklider, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
“As a China-based journalist, SinoInsider is to me a very reliable source of information to understand deeply how the CCP works and learn more about the factional struggle and challenges that Xi Jinping may face. ”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“SinoInsider offers an interesting perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade war and North Korea. Their predictions are often accurate, which is definitely very helpful.”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels.”
John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
“My teaching at Cambridge and policy analysis for the UK audience have been informed by insights from your analyzes. ”
Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."
Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University
“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”
Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute
“SinoInsider has been one of my most useful (and enjoyable) resources”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Professor Ming and his team’s analyses of current affairs are very far-sighted and directionally accurate. In the present media environment where it is harder to distinguish between real and fake information, SinoInsider’s professional perspectives are much needed to make sense of a perilous and unpredictable world. ”
Liu Cheng-chuan, Professor Emeritus, National Chiayi University
Previous
Next