China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
OUR RESEARCH
Politics Watch: Decoding Xi’s Hainan Free Trade Port Move
◎ Xi consolidating power is a vital prerequisite for the economic liberalization to happen.
Risk Watch: Is Rare Earth Really China’s ‘Secret Weapon’ in a Trade War with America?
◎ The CCP wouldn’t risk a “rare earth war.”
Risk Watch: Can China Withstand a Trade War?
◎ The CCP faces seven pressing problems that render it unable to withstand a trade war with America.
Why Xi Jinping Will Open Up China This Time
◎ Xi could fulfill his Boao promise to open up China.
Risk Watch: China at a Disadvantage in Sino-US Trade War
◎ China, and not the U.S., would be more severely affected by China’s soybean tariffs.
Risk Watch: China Tightens Grip on Internet Finance
◎ Beijing is likely very clear that a trade war is unavoidable, and it can only seek to delay its start and find ways to lessen the blow.
Risk Watch: What was Signaled at the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission Meeting
◎ The focus on deleveraging to defuse risks suggests that Beijing expects the trade war with the U.S. to have a massive impact on China’s economy.
Risk Watch: Why China Won’t Touch Soybeans in the Trade War
◎ China cannot stop importing soybeans from the U.S. for two reasons.
Risk Watch: Why China Wants Foreign-listed Tech Companies in the A-share Market
◎ China wants tech giants and “unicorns” to list in domestic markets to prevent a liquidity crunch that could trigger a debt crisis.
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