What Trump’s Second Term Means for China
Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
OUR RESEARCH
Geopolitics Watch: Xi Lays Groundwork for Trade Concessions in State Media
◎ The propaganda narratives in Xinhua lay the groundwork for Xi to agree to U.S. demands on sensitive issues like structural reform without losing face at home.
The End of Strategic Ambiguity on Taiwan?
◎ Is the United States government about to declare a clear and firm commitment to defend Taiwan?
Geopolitics Watch: Will China and America Reach a Real Trade Deal By March 1?
◎ Xi has pressing need to compromise, and Trump will not accept a “superficial” trade deal.
Geopolitics Watch: US Strategic Advantages of Holding the Second Trump-Kim Meeting in Vietnam
◎ Manufacturers may eventually shift out of China to Vietnam and an economically liberalized North Korea.
Post-shutdown, Trump Must Get Tough with Foreign Adversaries
◎ History has taught that an American president’s credibility on a major U.S. domestic issue can be transferable to tests of will in the international arena, for good or ill.
Geopolitics Watch: Sino-US Trade Enforcement and the ZTE ‘Probation’ Model
◎ America could have the ZTE model in mind in enforcing the trade deal.
The 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis: Three What Ifs?
◎ There has been much talk about the recent comments of a Chinese military official issuing a dire warning against the United States resisting China’s aggression in the region.
Politics Watch: Guangdong Public Security Chief Says ‘Political Risk’ a Major Focus of 2019
◎ The remarks of Li Chunsheng are a further sign that the CCP is feeling the pressure from rising social tensions.
Politics Watch: Former Securities Regulator’s Move to Rural Supply Cooperative a Further Sign of Regime Crisis
◎ Liu Shiyu’s transfer to the CCP’s rural supply cooperative is more than just a “demotion.”
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