China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
OUR RESEARCH
Questioning the Discourse on Xi Jinping’s ‘Power Grab’
◎ A CCP Central Committee decision to remove term limits for the president and vice president sparked a huge outcry in the media and the China-watching community.
Risk Watch: Decoding China’s Banking Regulator Plans to Cut Banks’ Bad Loan Buffer
◎ On Feb. 28, the CBRC issued a notice that reduces the rules governing how much banks must set aside to cover bad loans.
Politics Watch: Decoding Wang Qishan’s Seating at the National People’s Congress Session
◎ Wang Qishan’s political standing is akin to that of an “eighth” Politburo Standing Committee member.
Personnel Watch: We Correctly Predicted the National People’s Congress Leadership
◎ Nine of the 13 NPC leaders we forecasted on Feb. 18 were confirmed on March 4.
Politics Watch: Why the 2018 National People’s Congress First Session is 3 Days Longer than the 2013 Edition
◎ On March 4, state media announced that the first session of the 13th National People’s Congress would be held from March 5 to March 20, or a period of 15 and a half days.
Risk Watch: What Does the Detention of CEFC Chairman Ye Jianming Signal?
◎ Behind Ye Jianming’s business success is a complex and mysterious web of government, business, military, and mafia connections.
Politics Watch: Decoding Insider Intel on Changes to the National People’s Congress Meeting at the Two Sessions
◎ We believe that the NPC meeting this year is extended by three days for its members to deliberate the draft resolution proposed at the Third Plenum.
Personnel Watch: How We Scored on Forecasting the Top CPPCC Leadership
◎ The 11 recently confirmed CPPCC vice chairs and the CPPCC chairman are in our Feb. 18 forecast of key personnel reshuffles at the Two Sessions.
Risk Watch: HNA Receives Bank Loans, Shrinks Global Workforce
◎ We believe that the Xi Jinping administration won’t let HNA go bankrupt because it is “too big to fail.”
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