What Trump’s Second Term Means for China
Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
OUR RESEARCH
Politics Watch: Xi-Kim Summit Foreshadows Peace on the Korean Peninsula
◎ We believe that Trump won’t shift away from his “maximum pressure” strategy unless North Korea denuclearizes.
Politics Watch: Yang Jiechi’s Delayed South Korea Trip Explained
◎ China’s foreign ministry announced on March 28 that Yang Jiechi would visit South Korea from March 29 to March 30.
Decoding the Xi-Kim Meeting in Beijing
◎ Trump could eventually get North Korea to sign a peace treaty.
The Geopolitical Contest Behind Kim Jong Un’s Visit to China
◎ Kim could have to broker a deal with Xi where he exchanges his nuclear weapons for a lifting of sanctions and keeping his rule over North Korea.
Personnel Watch: Decoding Guo Shuqing as People’s Bank of China Party Secretary
◎ Guo Shuqing’s new assignment affirms the logic behind our analysis of China’s financial sector reform and personnel reshuffle.
On the Timing of Trump’s $60 Billion Opening Salvo in ‘Trade War’ with China
◎ We believe that Trump’s $60 billion tariffs are just the opening salvo. Expect harsher penalties to come.
Politics Watch: Yang Jiechi’s South Africa Trip is a Diplomatic Puzzle
◎ Yang Jiechi would visit South Africa from March 23 to March 24.
Fu Zhenghua, Factional Struggle, and Scrubbing the Security and Law Apparatus
◎ We believe that Fu Zhenghua’s promotion doesn’t guarantee his safety.
Politics Watch: Decoding China’s Party and State Institutional Reforms
◎ On March 21, Chinese state media published the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) plan for reforming its Party and state institutions.
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