China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
OUR RESEARCH
Politics Watch: Decoding K-pop Diplomacy in North Korea
◎ The K-pop performances are another sign of coming peace on the Korean Peninsula
Politics Watch: Xi-Kim Summit Foreshadows Peace on the Korean Peninsula
◎ We believe that Trump won’t shift away from his “maximum pressure” strategy unless North Korea denuclearizes.
Politics Watch: Yang Jiechi’s Delayed South Korea Trip Explained
◎ China’s foreign ministry announced on March 28 that Yang Jiechi would visit South Korea from March 29 to March 30.
Decoding the Xi-Kim Meeting in Beijing
◎ Trump could eventually get North Korea to sign a peace treaty.
The Geopolitical Contest Behind Kim Jong Un’s Visit to China
◎ Kim could have to broker a deal with Xi where he exchanges his nuclear weapons for a lifting of sanctions and keeping his rule over North Korea.
Personnel Watch: Decoding Guo Shuqing as People’s Bank of China Party Secretary
◎ Guo Shuqing’s new assignment affirms the logic behind our analysis of China’s financial sector reform and personnel reshuffle.
On the Timing of Trump’s $60 Billion Opening Salvo in ‘Trade War’ with China
◎ We believe that Trump’s $60 billion tariffs are just the opening salvo. Expect harsher penalties to come.
Politics Watch: Yang Jiechi’s South Africa Trip is a Diplomatic Puzzle
◎ Yang Jiechi would visit South Africa from March 23 to March 24.
Fu Zhenghua, Factional Struggle, and Scrubbing the Security and Law Apparatus
◎ We believe that Fu Zhenghua’s promotion doesn’t guarantee his safety.
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