China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
OUR RESEARCH
Risk Watch: China Could Tighten Real Estate Control Policies
◎ We believe that many mainland Chinese are expecting Beijing to drive real estate sales to cope with a Sino-U.S. trade war.
Geopolitics Watch: On Xi, Kim, Dalai Lama, North Korea, and the Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ The Trump administration still has cards to play to keep pressuring the CCP.
Politics Watch: Subtle Signals of Sino-US Trade Progress Surface
◎ Beijing has the incentive to make trade concessions to prevent a deterioration of relations with America.
Politics Watch: More Signs of Good Progress on Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ The telephone call between Mike Pompeo and Yang Jiechi corroborates our assessment of the Sino-U.S. trade talks and more.
Can China Withstand a Trade War? An Analysis of Provincial Finances
◎ An examination of the financial state of Chinese provincial in 2017 suggests that China cannot withstand a trade war.
Politics Watch: Decoding the Outcome of Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ Should Beijing live up to its promises, the U.S. could eventually realize as much as 60 to 80 percent of its trade goals with China.
Geopolitics Watch: Behind Wang Yi’s Trip to North Korea
◎ Whether the coming peace talks would be trilateral or quadrilateral talks would hinge on the outcome of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations and the Trump-Kim summit.
Risk Watch: Property Prices Skyrocket in Chinese Border Town in Anticipation of North Korean Liberalization
◎ China would be in an advantageous position once sanctions of North Korea are lifted and the country’s economy starts to liberalize.
Risk Watch: Central Bank Official Cautions Alibaba, Tencent on Payment Industry Compliance
◎ Fan Shuangwen recently issued a warning to large Chinese payment companies.
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