What Trump’s Second Term Means for China
Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
OUR RESEARCH
Geopolitics Watch: On Xi, Kim, Dalai Lama, North Korea, and the Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ The Trump administration still has cards to play to keep pressuring the CCP.
Politics Watch: Subtle Signals of Sino-US Trade Progress Surface
◎ Beijing has the incentive to make trade concessions to prevent a deterioration of relations with America.
Politics Watch: More Signs of Good Progress on Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ The telephone call between Mike Pompeo and Yang Jiechi corroborates our assessment of the Sino-U.S. trade talks and more.
Can China Withstand a Trade War? An Analysis of Provincial Finances
◎ An examination of the financial state of Chinese provincial in 2017 suggests that China cannot withstand a trade war.
Politics Watch: Decoding the Outcome of Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ Should Beijing live up to its promises, the U.S. could eventually realize as much as 60 to 80 percent of its trade goals with China.
Geopolitics Watch: Behind Wang Yi’s Trip to North Korea
◎ Whether the coming peace talks would be trilateral or quadrilateral talks would hinge on the outcome of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations and the Trump-Kim summit.
Risk Watch: Property Prices Skyrocket in Chinese Border Town in Anticipation of North Korean Liberalization
◎ China would be in an advantageous position once sanctions of North Korea are lifted and the country’s economy starts to liberalize.
Risk Watch: Central Bank Official Cautions Alibaba, Tencent on Payment Industry Compliance
◎ Fan Shuangwen recently issued a warning to large Chinese payment companies.
Geopolitics Watch: Forecasting the Korean Peninsula Peace and Denuclearization Process
◎ Kim’s willingness to make the closure of the Punggyeri test site public and the scrapping of “Pyongyang time” are signs that he is sincere about denuclearization.
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