China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
OUR RESEARCH
Geopolitics Watch: Pompeo Meeting with Xi Forebodes Trade War Truce
◎ Trump could still press ahead with tariffs or reduced tariffs on June 15 if there is a lack of mutual trust between the two sides.
Politics Watch: Civil Servant Wages Delayed as Local Gov’t Revenue Falls
◎ The CCP would find it increasingly difficult to exert control over Chinese society if it cannot pay civil servants.
Geopolitics Watch: Trump-Kim Summit Affirms Our Peace and Denuclearization Prediction
◎ We predicted in March after Kim met Xi in Beijing that North Korea would denuclearize and a peace treaty to end the Korean war would be signed.
Politics Watch: Rumor of Leadership Change in Hainan Hints at Hastening of Opening Up
◎ According to reports, Guangdong mayor Ma Xingrui was recently in Hainan Province making preparations to take over the post of Party secretary.
Society Watch: Truck Drivers Go on Strike as Social Tensions Mount in China
◎ The trucker strikes are the latest instance of mass social unrest that has broken out in China in recent months.
Risk Watch: Tax Probe of China’s Entertainment Industry Could See Shakeup of Film Stars
◎ Xi now appears to be closing in on the entertainment industry.
Geopolitics Watch: US Deal Puts ZTE on ‘Probation,’ Benefits US National Security
◎ The new ZTE deal could later be regarded as an important milestone by the U.S. in advancing national security interests in dealings with China.
Risk Watch: China Central Bank MLF Injection Lowers RMB Creditworthiness
◎ The renminbi devalued and property prices soared on three previous occasions when China resorted to irregular injection of liquidity.
Geopolitics Watch: Would Kim Jong Un Accept Senate Democrats Denuclearization Demands?
◎ The Democrats’ demands may end up helping Trump to seal a historic denuclearization and peace deal with Kim Jong Un.
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