What Trump’s Second Term Means for China
Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
OUR RESEARCH
Politics Watch: A Black Swan Leading Indicator Surfaces at the Two Sessions
◎ The spotlighting of qigong at the Two Sessions is connected with the “you die, I live” factional struggle in the CCP.
Hanoi Summit Failure? Not Quite — Kim Now Owes Trump Big Time
◎ How did the failure to secure a declaration of all North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities, let alone a specific commitment to destroy them, somehow move the ball forward?
Risk Watch: Early Analysis of China’s Government Work Report
◎ Several proposals in the 2019 government work report seemingly cancel out each other or will contradict Xi’s push to have the “Party lead everything”
Politics Watch: Xi Faces Pushback from the Intelligence Apparatus
◎ There is a pattern in recent years of “explosive information” about CCP elites being revealed during crucial periods in the factional struggle.
Geopolitics Watch: Early Analysis & Forecast on Extended Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ The CCP factional struggle will escalate as Xi tries to force through reforms to meet U.S. trade demands.
A ‘5 Percent Monthly’ Plan to Denuclearize, Develop North Korea
◎ A proposed schedule of nuclear and missile dismantling would be part of a good-faith showing by Kim.
Risk Watch: Chinese Online Property ‘Unicorn’ Aiwujiwu Shuts Down
◎ The collapse of Aiwujiwu and pinganfang.com suggests that the business model of “property + financing + internet services” is failing in China.
Politics Watch: Shock Turn in ‘Shaanxi Case’ Suggests Escalation of Factional Struggle
◎ The CCP’s political and legal affairs apparatus continues to oppose the Xi leadership, and the factional struggle intensifies.
Politics Watch: Sentencing of Fang Fenghui Portends Major Moves by Beijing, Hints at Regime Crisis
◎ The sentencing of Fang Fenghui at this time hints at three possible political developments.
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