China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
OUR RESEARCH
Risk Watch: The Chinese Stock Market Plunge and Factional Politics
◎ The timing of the plunge and other odd developments suggest that CCP factional politics could be a factor influencing the recent sell-offs.
Politics Watch: A Black Swan Leading Indicator Surfaces at the Two Sessions
◎ The spotlighting of qigong at the Two Sessions is connected with the “you die, I live” factional struggle in the CCP.
Hanoi Summit Failure? Not Quite — Kim Now Owes Trump Big Time
◎ How did the failure to secure a declaration of all North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities, let alone a specific commitment to destroy them, somehow move the ball forward?
Risk Watch: Early Analysis of China’s Government Work Report
◎ Several proposals in the 2019 government work report seemingly cancel out each other or will contradict Xi’s push to have the “Party lead everything”
Politics Watch: Xi Faces Pushback from the Intelligence Apparatus
◎ There is a pattern in recent years of “explosive information” about CCP elites being revealed during crucial periods in the factional struggle.
Geopolitics Watch: Early Analysis & Forecast on Extended Sino-US Trade Talks
◎ The CCP factional struggle will escalate as Xi tries to force through reforms to meet U.S. trade demands.
A ‘5 Percent Monthly’ Plan to Denuclearize, Develop North Korea
◎ A proposed schedule of nuclear and missile dismantling would be part of a good-faith showing by Kim.
Risk Watch: Chinese Online Property ‘Unicorn’ Aiwujiwu Shuts Down
◎ The collapse of Aiwujiwu and pinganfang.com suggests that the business model of “property + financing + internet services” is failing in China.
Politics Watch: Shock Turn in ‘Shaanxi Case’ Suggests Escalation of Factional Struggle
◎ The CCP’s political and legal affairs apparatus continues to oppose the Xi leadership, and the factional struggle intensifies.
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