China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
OUR RESEARCH
Geopolitics Watch: Trump-Kim DMZ Meeting Opens Door for N. Korea Denuke Resolution
◎ The Trump-Kim DMZ meeting somewhat cancels out China’s diplomatic effort in Pyongyang before the G20 summit in Osaka.
Politics Watch: G20 ‘Loser’ Xi Faces Increased Political Risks at Home
◎ Unless Xi resolves factional politics at home, China and the U.S. will find it very hard to get a trade deal.
Politics Watch: CCP ‘Self-reform,’ Global Times on CCTV, and the Factional Struggle
◎ Xi is reasserting his paramount authority in the face of political pushback.
‘Red China’ Redux: Pariah Among Nations, Enemy of its People
◎ The CCP’s aggression extended beyond populations within China and along its borders.
Geopolitics Watch: Early Analysis on the Trump-Xi G20 Meeting in Osaka
◎ Should current trends hold, the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 will likely do little to prevent an escalation of the Sino-U.S. “new cold war.”
Risk Watch: The Sino-US ‘Battle of Waterloo’ is Approaching
◎ A Sino-U.S. cold war is unavoidable and will be a zero-sum competition.
As Hong Kong Stands Up to China, US Should Do the Right Thing — This Time
◎ President Trump, still addressing the consequences of the earlier unconsummated events, faces a new situation as the people of Hong Kong defy Beijing’s further erosion of their guaranteed rights of limited self-government.
Politics Watch: Why the Chinese Ambassador to Britain is Rejecting Beijing’s Role in the Hong Kong Extradition Law
◎ Hong Kong’s chief executive and pro-Beijing lawmakers will likely try to determine Party central’s intention from Liu Xiaoming’s remarks and act accordingly.
Politics Watch: How the CCP Factional Struggle Could Trigger a Tiananmen-like Event in Hong Kong
◎ The present situation in Hong Kong is ripe for Xi’s political rivals to exploit and shift the balance of the struggle.
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