◎ Articles by Taoran have to be scrutinized for what is not said as much as what is said to gain actual insights into what Beijing might or might not be thinking.
On Jan. 13, the WeChat account Taoran Notes published an article on Sino-U.S. trade relations titled “Keep Calm, All Things Can Be Achieved” (守住平常心 万事在人为).
In a close reading of the article, we summarized the main points as:
- The details of the Sino-U.S. “phase one” trade deal will only be made known after the deal is signed;
- Faced with great external pressure, China has no choice but to make compromises;
- China, however, has not really compromised anything due to prior plans to open up the Chinese markets to a greater degree;
- The Chinese Communist Party’s survival is paramount, and there are still chances in the future for the People’s Republic of China to achieve hegemony;
- Don’t blame the CCP for the deterioration in Sino-U.S. relations, a development which the CCP previously never encountered.
A day earlier, United States Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin dismissed rumors that there were changes made to the “phase one” trade deal when it was translated into Chinese. “We have been going through a translation process that I think we said was really a technical issue. And the language will be released this week. So I think it is — the day of the signing, we will be releasing the English version. And people can see. This is a very, very extensive agreement,” he said.
The backdrop:
The PRC and the U.S. are preparing to sign “phase one” of the Sino-U.S. trade deal on Jan. 15. PRC vice premier Liu He and other high-level PRC officials will be in Washington D.C. from Jan. 13 to Jan. 15, ostensibly for the signing ceremony.
Our take:
1. Taoran Notes is a Chinese social media account that positions itself as “independent self-media” but is actually run by the state-owned media Economic Daily’s international desk. The PRC uses “independent self-media” outlets like Taoran to air views that official state or Party-run media cannot conveniently broadcast.
Western commentators have come to regard Taoran articles to be a bellwether of sorts for the state of the Sino-U.S. trade talks because it supposedly carries “accurate insights” into what Beijing is thinking. While Taoran may or may not have direct channels to the CCP elite and key stakeholders in the trade talks, we believe that it functions in a similar fashion to other CCP-affiliated media, i.e. telegraph threats, float trial balloons, and signal what Beijing wants the world to think that it is thinking on an issue. And like all CCP-affiliated media content, articles by Taoran have to be scrutinized for what is not said as much as what is said to gain actual insights into what Beijing might or might not be thinking.
2. From the points in the Jan. 13 Taoran article which we listed above, the CCP is trying to downplay expectations about the Sino-U.S. “phase one” trade deal while claiming that recent efforts to open up the Chinese economy more are due to its own planning rather than American pressure.
The Taoran Notes piece suggests that the CCP is approaching the Sino-U.S. “phase one” trade deal with great caution and hopes to seal the deal in a low-key manner to prevent domestic pushback should the trade deal breakdown in future. In other words, the CCP is not confident that the deal signing will necessarily mean a de-escalation of trade tensions between the PRC and the U.S. and needs to curb excessive enthusiasm on the mainland. Hence, the piece takes great pains to dial down expectations and stress the need to remain “calm.”
The Taoran piece also indicates that the Xi Jinping leadership is wary of being branded “traitors” and accused of “selling out the country” by both his political opponents and the Chinese people when it is finally made known what sort of concessions the PRC made to the United States (see our previous analysis here and here). The messaging in the piece is in line with the “strictly governing the Party” (從嚴治黨) messaging in Xi Jinping’s recent “staying true to the Party’s founding mission” meeting on Jan. 8; by threatening to “turn the blade inward,” Xi is likely hoping that CCP cadres and the brainwashed “patriots” in China will hold their peace after the signing of the “phase one” trade deal.
