◎ The propaganda narratives in Xinhua lay the groundwork for Xi to agree to U.S. demands on sensitive issues like structural reform without losing face at home.
◎ We believe that Xi Jinping presently faces critical levels of political risk given the political and economic problems in the regime.
◎ The 90-day trade talks, if successful, will tackle U.S. national security concerns at its root.
◎ Xi faces very high levels of political risk in the next 90 days.
◎ Xi was likely seeking a pause going into the G20. The concessions which he made to gain the pause suggests a “pyrrhic victory.”
◎ We identify three broad strategic lines which the CCP is pursuing to hijack the discourse on Chinese influence.
◎ Pence’s message to Beijing was firm and clear: “The United States … will not change course until China changes its ways.”
◎ The CCP’s claim that migrants workers are returning home to partake in “entrepreneurship” is likely an attempt to put a positive spin on rising unemployment.