Per Chinese state media reports on Jan. 8, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Beijing at the request of Xi Jinping. The reports say that Kim will be in China from Jan. 7 to Jan. 10. This is Kim’s fourth trip to China since taking office. The backdrop: 1. Kim Jong Un spent his …
Read moreGeopolitics Watch: Xi Summoning Kim to Beijing a Goodwill Gesture to America
By Joseph Bosco Now that China and the United States are embroiled a trade war, can they avoid a real war? That is the question that arises from recent headlinesabout tensions between the two. The answer is yes. Each has the capacity to head off the escalating crisis and prevent armed conflict. All it would take …
Read moreNo ‘Middle Way’ in US-China Struggle — China Must Change
Summary: Most commentary on Trump raising the possibility of intervening in the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou is focused on the trade aspect. We argue that national security, and not trade, is likely the main motivation behind Trump’s intervention remark. The 90-day trade talks, if successful, will tackle U.S. national security concerns at its …
Summary: Xi Jinping “crossed the Rubicon” by backtracking from tough official rhetoric and making personal commitments to President Donald Trump in Argentina. To deliver on his commitments to Trump, Xi must resolve the CCP factional struggle, the chief factor blocking the implementation of Xi’s policies and the core problem in Chinese elite politics. Based on …
Read morePolitics Watch: Xi’s Delivery of Trade Commitments Hinges on the CCP Factional Struggle
Summary The U.S. and the PRC paused the escalation of the trade conflict at the G20 in Argentina. While Xi Jinping was likely seeking a pause going into the G20, the concessions which he made to gain the pause suggests a “pyrrhic victory.” Trump and the U.S. appear to have gained more than losing with …
By Joseph Bosco When Vice President Mike Pence addressed the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Summit, he criticized China for its myriad violations of international norms. America and the world have lost patience, he warned: “Things must change.” He spoke these words 51 years after Richard Nixon issued the first urgent “China must change” message. In a Foreign Affairs article previewing the course …
Read moreIn the New China-US Cold War, Will Xi or Trump Blink First?
Summary: The CCP is turning to its Red Matrix as part of a “full court press” against President Donald Trump before the G20 in Argentina. The CCP is also relying on its Red Matrix to maintain market confidence, as well as preserve political and social stability. The CCP is using the Red Matrix because it …
Read moreGeopolitics Watch: The CCP Turns to the Red Matrix in Full Court Press Against Trump
Summary: Xi Jinping and Donald Trump likely find it to be in their interest to hold a summit at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires. The meeting will unlikely lead to a concrete deal to resolve the Sino-U.S. trade conflict. Xi will not be able to meet the Trump administration’s asks due to political and …
Read moreGeopolitics Watch: Trump-Xi Meeting at G20 Won’t Curb US Pressure
Summary We wrote in August that the CCP could be gambling that the U.S. midterm election results allow it to “avoid a consequential clash with America.” The CCP’s gamble may not work out. The midterm results should have little effect on influencing the Sino-U.S. trade war. Legislative gridlock may instead cause President Trump to focus …
Read moreGeopolitics Watch: Did the CCP’s ‘Gamble’ on the US Midterm Election Pay Off?
Summary Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan gave speeches recently in Shanghai and Singapore respectively. From their speeches, we believe that the CCP may still be having wishful thinking about its domestic situation, its influence capabilities, and geopolitical trends. The result of the 2018 U.S. midterm election will not change America’s policy shift on China. The …
Read moreGeopolitics Watch: What Xi and Wang’s Speeches Mean for the Trade War
