◎ A closer examination of recent developments suggests dim prospects for the “phase one” trade deal and future Sino-U.S. trade agreements.
◎ Secretary Pompeo’s speech affirms several trends in U.S. policy toward the PRC which we have identified since July 2018.
◎ Mike Pence generally adopted a more conciliatory tone towards China in his Wilson Center speech as compared with his fiery, hard-hitting Hudson Institute speech in October 2018.
◎ We look at some key factors that would make or break trade negotiations between America and China.
◎ The Trump administration is complementing the CCP’s delaying tactics with a “phase-by-phase” approach to a trade deal, and is falling into the CCP’s trap.
◎ The CCP does not want a trade deal on Trump’s terms to begin with because such a deal would cause existential problems for the communist regime.
Read moreGeopolitics Watch: In Chasing a ‘Monumental Deal,’ Trump Walks into the CCP’s Trap
◎ The CCP’s goal of “advancing to retreat” is to calm things down in the city and focus its energies instead on other pressing matters, such as the Sino-U.S. trade war and the 2020 Taiwan presidential election.
Read moreGeopolitics Watch: The CCP ‘Advances to Retreat’ on Hong Kong
◎ If the CCP has identified that Trump will do anything to get his trade deal, they will definitely call his bluff and turn the trade deal into his greatest weakness.
◎ Trump’s ambiguous messaging on the Hong Kong issue will embolden the CCP to keep pushing the limits in suppressing the protesters.
◎ The PRC and the U.S. have unwittingly stumbled into battle with the CCP devaluing the RMB and the U.S. declaring China a currency manipulator.