Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on telegram
Share on whatsapp
Share on linkedin
Share on print
Share on email

Geopolitics Watch: Xi Summoning Kim to Beijing a Goodwill Gesture to America

◎ Xi could have summoned Kim to Beijing to signal cooperation with America on North Korean denuclearization and improve the odds of successful trade talks.

Per Chinese state media reports on Jan. 8, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Beijing at the request of Xi Jinping. The reports say that Kim will be in China from Jan. 7 to Jan. 10.

This is Kim’s fourth trip to China since taking office.

The backdrop:
1. Kim Jong Un spent his 35th birthday in Beijing on Jan. 8.

2. Chinese and United States officials held trade talks in Beijing from Jan. 7 to Jan. 9. The talks were originally scheduled from Jan. 7 to Jan. 8, but were extended to a third day.

3. On Jan. 8, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted: “Talks with China are going very well!”

4. In an interview with CNBC on Jan. 8, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said: “China has actually been a good partner in our efforts to reduce the risk to the world from North Korea’s nuclear capability; I expect they will continue to do so.”

5. On Jan. 9, several media outlets reported that Kim’s train had left Beijing.

Our take:
1. We believe that Xi Jinping summoned Kim Jong Un to Beijing to signal cooperation with the U.S. on the denuclearization of North Korea, and hence bolster the odds of successful Sino-U.S. trade talks.

Both the PRC and the DPRK have a long history of being untrustworthy. However, both sides are currently experiencing great pressure from the U.S., and have sufficient incentive to try to be genuine to win America’s trust and see progress in their respective negotiations (PRC: Trade deal; DPRK: A second Trump-Kim summit).

2. We believe that the PRC and the DPRK could issue a communique with the following points (directly stated or implied):

  • Reaffirm friendly relations between the PRC and the DPRK;
  • The PRC supports the DPRK’s implementation of economic reforms;
  • The PRC and the DPRK support peace and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and hope that the U.S. and the DPRK can hasten the process of ending the Korean War;
  • Express hope that the U.S. can adhere to the commitments made between President Trump and Kim Jong Un at their summit in Singapore;
  • Express hope that the U.S. can hold the second Trump-Kim summit as soon as possible;
  • Express hope that the U.S. can lift sanctions against the DPRK and cease military exercises near the Korean Peninsula to win the DPRK’s trust.

For more of our analysis of North Korea, click here.

Search past entries by date

Recommended articles

Political Censorship and the Communist-style Erosion of America
The 2020 US Presidential Election and the Communist Threat
Analyzing the Purge of Wang Qishan Aide Dong Hong
What the ‘Xi-Li Split’ Says About the State of the CCP Regime
Culture Strategy: Inoculating America and the World Against China’s ‘Virulent Strain of Communism’
The Trump Administration Is Tough and Strategic on China
Politics Watch: Hong Kong’s NatSec Set Up Signals ‘Supra-authority’ Status of the CCP’s NatSec Commission
Politics Watch: Ramifications of the Hong Kong Security Law for CCP Factional Politics
Politics Watch: Fourth Plenum Timing and Agenda Confirm Political Crisis in China
Influence Watch: Why the CCP Fears an Ideological Battle and a ‘Clash of Civilizations’
Politics Watch: Xi Faces Pushback from the Intelligence Apparatus
Why Xi Jinping Removed China’s Presidential Term Limit

Testimonials

“The breadth of SinoInsider’s insights—from economics through the military to governance, all underpinned by unparalleled reporting on the people in charge—is stunning. In my over fifty years of in-depth reading on the PRC, unclassified and classified, SinoInsider is in a class all by itself.”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Unique insights are available frequently from the reports of Sinoinsider.”
Michael Pillsbury, Senior Fellow for China Strategy, The Heritage Foundation
“Thank you for your information and analysis. Very useful.”
Prof. Ravni Thakur, University of Delhi, India
“SinoInsider’s research has helped me with investing in or getting out of Chinese companies.”
Charles Nelson, Managing Director, Murdock Capital Partners
“I value SinoInsider because of its always brilliant articles touching on, to name just a few, CCP history, current trends, and factional politics. Its concise and incisive analysis — absent the cliches that dominate China policy discussions in DC and U.S. corporate boardrooms — also represents a major contribution to the history of our era by clearly defining the threat the CCP poses to American peace and prosperity and global stability. I am grateful to SinoInsider — long may it thrive!”
Lee Smith, Author and journalist
“Your publication insights tremendously help us complete our regular analysis on in-depth issues of major importance. ”
Ms. Nicoleta Buracinschi, Embassy of Romania to the People’s Republic of China
"I’m a very happy, satisfied subscriber to your service and all the deep information it provides to increase our understanding. SinoInsider is profoundly helping to alter the public landscape when it comes to the PRC."
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Prof. Ming’s information about the Sino-U.S. trade war is invaluable for us in Taiwan’s technology industry. Our company basically acted on Prof. Ming’s predictions and enlarged our scale and enriched our product lines. That allowed us to deal capably with larger orders from China in 2019. ”
Mr. Chiu, Realtek R&D Center
“I am following China’s growing involvement in the Middle East, seeking to gain a better understanding of China itself and the impact of domestic constraints on its foreign policy. I have found SinoInsider quite helpful in expanding my knowledge and enriching my understanding of the issues at stake.”
Ehud Yaari, Lafer International Fellow, The Washington Institute
“SinoInsider’s research on the CCP examines every detail in great depth and is a very valuable reference. Foreign researchers will find SinoInsider’s research helpful in understanding what is really going on with the CCP and China. ”
Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
“The forecasts of Prof. Chu-cheng Ming and the SinoInsider team are an invaluable resource in guiding our news reporting direction and anticipating the next moves of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.”
Chan Miu-ling, Radio Television Hong Kong China Team Deputy Leader
“SinoInsider always publishes interesting and provocative work on Chinese elite politics. It is very worthwhile to follow the work of SinoInsider to get their take on factional struggles in particular.”
Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
“[SinoInsider has] been very useful in my class on American foreign policy because it contradicts the widely accepted argument that the U.S. should work cooperatively with China. And the whole point of the course is to expose students to conflicting approaches to contemporary major problems.”
Roy Licklider, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
“As a China-based journalist, SinoInsider is to me a very reliable source of information to understand deeply how the CCP works and learn more about the factional struggle and challenges that Xi Jinping may face. ”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“SinoInsider offers an interesting perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade war and North Korea. Their predictions are often accurate, which is definitely very helpful.”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels.”
John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
“My teaching at Cambridge and policy analysis for the UK audience have been informed by insights from your analyzes. ”
Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."
Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University
“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”
Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute
“SinoInsider has been one of my most useful (and enjoyable) resources”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Professor Ming and his team’s analyses of current affairs are very far-sighted and directionally accurate. In the present media environment where it is harder to distinguish between real and fake information, SinoInsider’s professional perspectives are much needed to make sense of a perilous and unpredictable world. ”
Liu Cheng-chuan, Professor Emeritus, National Chiayi University
Previous
Next