What Trump’s Second Term Means for China
Xi and the CCP will almost certainly find their troubles compounded should Trump press ahead with his China agenda over the next four years.
OUR RESEARCH
Two Sessions: Forecasting State Council, NPC, CPPCC, National Supervision Commission Personnel Reshuffle
◎ We present our Two Sessions personnel predictions.
Risk Watch: Analyzing HNA’s Future Directions
◎ Whether or not HNA can survive its financial troubles will have a significant impact on China’s debt crisis.
Military Watch: China’s Central Theater Command Gets a New Deputy Commander
◎ The appointment of Zhang Xudong and Yi Xiaoguang as deputy and commander of the CTC is revealing of Xi’s handling of military personnel reshuffling.
Personnel Watch: Decoding the Censuring of China’s Purged ‘Internet Czar’ Lu Wei
◎ The arrest of Lu Wei puts Liu Yunshan and Liu Qibao at risk.
Politics Watch: China’s Anti-corruption Agency Specifies Anti-Mafia Campaign Targets
◎ The CCDI’s latest opinion document further verifies our earlier analysis that Xi’s “sweeping black” campaign aims at solving multiple problems in one swoop.
Politics Watch: Wang Qishan Not on Party’s ‘Old Comrades’ List
◎ We noted in our 19th Congress forecast that Wang may be appointed as vice president and handed a diplomatic portfolio in March 2018.
Risk Watch: Banking Regulators Shift Supervision Focus From Businesses to Individuals
◎ The CBRC document further corroborates our post-19th Congress assessment that Xi Jinping will focus on cleaning up corruption in the financial sector.
Risk Watch: China Bond Defaults in 2018 Exceed $648 Million
◎ China’s debt crisis is very severe.
Leaner and Meaner: Why China’s Financial Oversight Agencies May be Merging
◎ Resolving risks in China’s financial sector is the Xi Jinping administration’s most urgent and important task of 2018.
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