China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
OUR RESEARCH
Risk Watch: China Central Bank-backed Media Signals Severe Debt Crisis
◎ An article in Financial News suggests that China’s debt problem is very severe.
Geopolitics Watch: Who Won the China-US Trade War?
◎ The U.S. is both winning the trade war with China and weakening the CCP regime.
Geopolitics Watch: With the Trade War ‘On Hold’, What’s Next for China, US?
◎ With the Sino-U.S. trade talks concluded, North Korea could quietly revert to a more agreeable tone.
Risk Watch: Rising Property Prices in Chinese Cities Expose Central-Local Policy Contradictions
◎ Chinese markets may expect Beijing to drive property sales to boost the economy as a way to cope with a Sino-US trade war.
Geopolitics Watch: Why is North Korea Canceling South Korean Talks, Threatening Trump-Kim Summit?
◎ North Korea’s “shock” move is hardly surprising.
Politics Watch: Wang Qishan Gets New Foreign Affairs Role Amid Sino-US Trade Tensions
◎ Wang Qishan is the third-ranking member of the CCP Foreign Affairs Commission.
Geopolitics Watch: Reading Trump’s ZTE Tweet, Sino-US Trade, and North Korea
◎ Trump’s ZTE tweet suggests that our read of America and China making good progress in trade talks is correct.
Risk Watch: Has China’s 2018 Bond Default Tsunami Arrived?
◎ A corporate debt crisis could be on the horizon in China.
The Deeper Implications of China’s Armed Police Reform
◎ The People’s Armed Police reforms lack the flash of Xi’s more eye-catching moves to consolidate control.
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