China Outlook 2025: Crises Set to Worsen for Xi and the CCP
Our China 2025 outlook contains 32 predictions covering eight categories.
OUR RESEARCH
Politics Watch: Meng Hongwei Purge Hints at ‘Soft Coup’ Against Xi
◎ There are hints that the Meng Hongwei case is connected with a “soft coup” against the Xi leadership.
Geopolitics Watch: On Correctly Predicting Trends in China-US Relations
◎ “Strategic competition” between America and the PRC has stepped up several notches.
A Mini-Marshall Plan to Retain Allies
◎ Can the leaders of these small, weak nations be expected to muster greater courage and fortitude than one of the world’s great ethical icons?
Geopolitics Watch: America Presses on the CCP’s Vital Points
◎ CCP stubbornness and the Trump administration’s willingness to call out PRC misbehavior and apply pressure on the CCP’s vital points would lead to an escalation in Sino-U.S. tensions.
Kissinger’s Historic China Policy: A Retrospective
◎ For Kissinger, changing the Communist Party’s approach to domestic governance was separate from, and subservient to, global realpolitik concerns.
Geopolitics Watch: How the CCP Can Interfere in US Elections
◎ We believe that Trump and his administration have identified a very real threat to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.
Risk Watch: The CCP’s ‘Controlled Blow Up’ of Local Debt Could Trigger a Black Swan
◎ The CCP is carrying out a controlled “blow up” of local government debts and transferring the risks to the private sector.
Geopolitics Watch: In Third Summit with Moon, Kim Successfully Sells Irreversible Denuclearization to N. Korea
◎ Kim may want a second meeting with Trump sooner rather than later.
Win the Trade War with China to Deter a Real War
◎ The outcome of the trade confrontation, and the lessons it teaches, will greatly influence the likelihood of actual conflict in the future.
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