Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on telegram
Share on whatsapp
Share on linkedin
Share on print
Share on email

How We Fared: Reviewing Our 20th Party Congress Forecast

We were able to forecast the 20th Party Congress leadership reshuffle with good accuracy without relying on insider sources using our unique political risk assessment model.

On Sept. 19, we published our 20th Party Congress personnel reshuffle forecast. Our forecasting was based on publicly available information at the time and without consulting insider sources. 

The new CCP leadership for Xi Jinping’s third term was unveiled at the conclusion of the 20th Party Congress on Oct. 23.

The following officials made the Politburo and its Standing Committee of the 20th Central Committee:

  • CCP General Secretary: Xi Jinping
  • 7-member Politburo Standing Committee (order by rank): Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, Li Xi 
  • 24-member Politburo and its Standing Committee (order by strokes of surnames in simplified Chinese): Ding Xuexiang, Xi Jinping, Ma Xingrui, Wang Yi, Wang Huning, Yin Li, Shi Taifeng, Liu Guozhong, Li Xi, Li Qiang, Li Ganjie, Li Shulei, Li Hongzhong, He Weidong, He Lifeng, Zhang Youxia, Zhang Guoqing, Chen Wenqing, Chen Jining, Chen Miner, Zhao Leji, Yuan Jiajun, Huang Kunming, Cai Qi

Our “Normal General Secretary Version 1” forecast list correctly identified five of the seven (71 percent) Politburo Standing Committee members, 16 of the 24 members (68 percent) of the Politburo, and 160 out of 205 members (78 percent) of the Central Committee. 

We were able to forecast the 20th Party Congress leadership reshuffle with good accuracy without relying on insider sources using our unique political risk assessment model, which takes into account CCP characteristics, operations, and factional struggle. Accounting for the three aforementioned factors was crucial in helping us get a better sense of Xi’s political strength and limitations, which influenced how he selected the new leadership of the CCP and our predictions. 

To have a better handle on the present political situation in China and China’s future direction, businesses, investors, scholars, journalists, and governments must closely track developments in CCP elite politics and understand how the Party operates to figure out political risks in China, produce more complete analysis about the CCP regime, and make better decisions. 

SinoInsider has the analysis and forecasting that those who require an accurate understanding of China’s political situation can rely on to improve their research and decision-making. Interested readers can submit a testimonial via our special offer form to get a limited-time discount on our subscription service. 

Search past entries by date

Recommended articles

Political Censorship and the Communist-style Erosion of America
The 2020 US Presidential Election and the Communist Threat
Analyzing the Purge of Wang Qishan Aide Dong Hong
What the ‘Xi-Li Split’ Says About the State of the CCP Regime
Culture Strategy: Inoculating America and the World Against China’s ‘Virulent Strain of Communism’
The Trump Administration Is Tough and Strategic on China
Politics Watch: Hong Kong’s NatSec Set Up Signals ‘Supra-authority’ Status of the CCP’s NatSec Commission
Politics Watch: Ramifications of the Hong Kong Security Law for CCP Factional Politics
Politics Watch: Fourth Plenum Timing and Agenda Confirm Political Crisis in China
Influence Watch: Why the CCP Fears an Ideological Battle and a ‘Clash of Civilizations’
Politics Watch: Xi Faces Pushback from the Intelligence Apparatus
Why Xi Jinping Removed China’s Presidential Term Limit

Testimonials

“The breadth of SinoInsider’s insights—from economics through the military to governance, all underpinned by unparalleled reporting on the people in charge—is stunning. In my over fifty years of in-depth reading on the PRC, unclassified and classified, SinoInsider is in a class all by itself.”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Unique insights are available frequently from the reports of Sinoinsider.”
Michael Pillsbury, Senior Fellow for China Strategy, The Heritage Foundation
“Thank you for your information and analysis. Very useful.”
Prof. Ravni Thakur, University of Delhi, India
“SinoInsider’s research has helped me with investing in or getting out of Chinese companies.”
Charles Nelson, Managing Director, Murdock Capital Partners
“I value SinoInsider because of its always brilliant articles touching on, to name just a few, CCP history, current trends, and factional politics. Its concise and incisive analysis — absent the cliches that dominate China policy discussions in DC and U.S. corporate boardrooms — also represents a major contribution to the history of our era by clearly defining the threat the CCP poses to American peace and prosperity and global stability. I am grateful to SinoInsider — long may it thrive!”
Lee Smith, Author and journalist
“Your publication insights tremendously help us complete our regular analysis on in-depth issues of major importance. ”
Ms. Nicoleta Buracinschi, Embassy of Romania to the People’s Republic of China
"I’m a very happy, satisfied subscriber to your service and all the deep information it provides to increase our understanding. SinoInsider is profoundly helping to alter the public landscape when it comes to the PRC."
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Prof. Ming’s information about the Sino-U.S. trade war is invaluable for us in Taiwan’s technology industry. Our company basically acted on Prof. Ming’s predictions and enlarged our scale and enriched our product lines. That allowed us to deal capably with larger orders from China in 2019. ”
Mr. Chiu, Realtek R&D Center
“I am following China’s growing involvement in the Middle East, seeking to gain a better understanding of China itself and the impact of domestic constraints on its foreign policy. I have found SinoInsider quite helpful in expanding my knowledge and enriching my understanding of the issues at stake.”
Ehud Yaari, Lafer International Fellow, The Washington Institute
“SinoInsider’s research on the CCP examines every detail in great depth and is a very valuable reference. Foreign researchers will find SinoInsider’s research helpful in understanding what is really going on with the CCP and China. ”
Baterdene, Researcher, The National Institute for Security Studies (Mongolian)
“The forecasts of Prof. Chu-cheng Ming and the SinoInsider team are an invaluable resource in guiding our news reporting direction and anticipating the next moves of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.”
Chan Miu-ling, Radio Television Hong Kong China Team Deputy Leader
“SinoInsider always publishes interesting and provocative work on Chinese elite politics. It is very worthwhile to follow the work of SinoInsider to get their take on factional struggles in particular.”
Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics, Queen Mary University of London
“[SinoInsider has] been very useful in my class on American foreign policy because it contradicts the widely accepted argument that the U.S. should work cooperatively with China. And the whole point of the course is to expose students to conflicting approaches to contemporary major problems.”
Roy Licklider, Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
“As a China-based journalist, SinoInsider is to me a very reliable source of information to understand deeply how the CCP works and learn more about the factional struggle and challenges that Xi Jinping may face. ”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“SinoInsider offers an interesting perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade war and North Korea. Their predictions are often accurate, which is definitely very helpful.”
Sebastien Ricci, AFP correspondent for China & Mongolia
“I have found SinoInsider to provide much greater depth and breadth of coverage with regard to developments in China. The subtlety of the descriptions of China's policy/political processes is absent from traditional media channels.”
John Lipsky, Peter G. Peterson Distinguished Scholar, Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
“My teaching at Cambridge and policy analysis for the UK audience have been informed by insights from your analyzes. ”
Dr Kun-Chin Lin, University Lecturer in Politics,
Deputy Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge University
" SinoInsider's in-depth and nuanced analysis of Party dynamics is an excellent template to train future Sinologists with a clear understanding that what happens in the Party matters."
Stephen Nagy, Senior Associate Professor, International Christian University
“ I find Sinoinsider particularly helpful in instructing students about the complexities of Chinese politics and what elite competition means for the future of the US-China relationship.”
Howard Sanborn, Professor, Virginia Military Institute
“SinoInsider has been one of my most useful (and enjoyable) resources”
James Newman, Former U.S. Navy cryptologist
“Professor Ming and his team’s analyses of current affairs are very far-sighted and directionally accurate. In the present media environment where it is harder to distinguish between real and fake information, SinoInsider’s professional perspectives are much needed to make sense of a perilous and unpredictable world. ”
Liu Cheng-chuan, Professor Emeritus, National Chiayi University
Previous
Next